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Short-Term Load Forecasting Update in ERCOT: NPRR351 Look-Ahead SCED Analysis

This update highlights the impact of RTD vs. SCED, including SCED price spikes, false spikes, and load forecasting using the Neural Network Algorithm in ERCOT for the study period of September 24, 2012, to October 21, 2012. Explore the analysis of GTBD, System Lambda MAE, LMP MAE, and error intervals, shedding light on pricing anomalies and load forecasting accuracy.

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Short-Term Load Forecasting Update in ERCOT: NPRR351 Look-Ahead SCED Analysis

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  1. NPRR351 Look-Ahead SCED Update Sai Moorty/Hailong Hui ERCOT METF October 26, 2012

  2. Outlines • Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) Inputs & Processing • RTD VS SCED Summary for Study Period 09/24/2012-10/21/2012 • GTBD and System Lambda Mean Absolute Error (MAE) • Load Zones LMP MAE • GTBD Error for Interval 6 • System Lambda Error for Interval 6 • RTD VS SCED Price Spikes Analysis for Interval 6 • On 09/24/2012, RTD had false price spike around $4000/MWh at Interval Ending (IE) 22:05 due to RTD shutdown profiling logic • On 09/27/2012, SCED had price spikes at SWCAP at IE 11:50 due to unit forced outage and RTD didn’t see it • On 10/10/2012, RTD had false price spikes at $4501/MWh at IE 17:05 and $4000/MWh at IE17:10. METF

  3. Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) Inputs & Processing • STLF Uses the Neural Network Algorithm. • STLF runs every 5 minutes with 15 seconds offset, e.g. HH:05:15. • STLF reads the each load area (SOUTHERN,WEST,COAST,NORTH, EAST, SOUTH_C,FAR_WEST,NORTH_C) instantaneous load value from SCADA every 4 seconds over current 5 minute interval and calculates the 5 minute average value of actual load at the end of the current interval. (LFC calculates the load area actual load value and writes to SCADA every 4 seconds and STLF simply reads the data from SCADA). • STLF uses the last two hours 5-minute interval actual load (5 minute average) to forecast current interval + next 11 intervals forecast. • STLF looks at previous day profile (actual – 5 minute average load) for load shape. If it is Monday, STLF looks at last week Thursday profile and if it is Saturday it looks at last week Saturday & Friday profile. If it is Sunday it looks at Saturday profile. METF

  4. RTD VS SCED Summary: GTBD and System Lambda MAE METF

  5. RTD VS SCED Summary: Load Zones LMP MAE METF

  6. RTD VS SCED Summary: GTBD Error (Interval 6) METF

  7. RTD VS SCED Summary: System Lambda Error (Interval 6) METF

  8. RTD VS SCED GTBD and System lambda for OD 24SEP2012 METF

  9. SCED GTBD and System Lambda for OD 24SEP2012 METF

  10. RTD VS SCED GTBD and System lambda for OD 27SEP2012 METF

  11. SCED GTBD and System Lambda for OD 27SEP2012 METF

  12. RTD VS SCED GTBD and System lambda for OD 10OCT2012 METF

  13. SCED GTBD and System Lambda for OD 10OCT2012 METF

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