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Modelling of Wind Speed Fields over Europe and Power Correlations in a 400 GW Scenario

Modelling of Wind Speed Fields over Europe and Power Correlations in a 400 GW Scenario. Jens Tambke, Lueder von Bremen, Michael Schmidt, Gerald Steinfeld, Jörg-Olaf Wolff ForWind & ICBM / Universität Oldenburg Frans Van Hulle XPwind, Belgium. Overview.

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Modelling of Wind Speed Fields over Europe and Power Correlations in a 400 GW Scenario

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  1. Modelling of Wind Speed Fields over Europe and Power Correlations in a 400 GW Scenario Jens Tambke, Lueder von Bremen, Michael Schmidt, Gerald Steinfeld, Jörg-Olaf Wolff ForWind & ICBM / Universität Oldenburg Frans Van Hulle XPwind, Belgium

  2. Overview • Grid Design in the IEE-study „OffshoreGrid“ • Mesoscale Wind Power Modelling • Fluctuations and Pan-European Wind Power Correlations

  3. Meshed Prototype Grid

  4. Meso-scale Model: WRF [m/s] FNL initialization 2-domain-setup, one-way-nesting 1st domain resolution: 27x27 km² 2nddomainresolution: 9x9 km² WRF-speeds [m/s] at 90m averages in 2007

  5. Meso-scale Errors at FINO1 FINO1, alpha ventus Mean Wind Speeds at 100m: ~10m/s Mean Potential Power Production: ~50% of the installed Capacity

  6. Spatial Smoothing Effects Belgium / Mid-West EU / EU+No+CH slide 6

  7. Total European On&Offshore Power 2030:267 GW inst. Onshore - mean production: 64 GW 127 GW inst. Offshore - mean theoret. prod.: 66 GW [GigaWatt] Total Sum Time in the Year [h]

  8. SpatialSmoothingEffects Correlationwithreal German Wind Power Generation von-Bremen-Map winter

  9. von-Bremen-Map CorrelationwithEU Offshore Wind Power winter slide 9

  10. von-Bremen-Map Correlationwith EU Onshore Wind Power winter

  11. von-Bremen-Map Correlationwithtotal EU On+Offshore Wind Power winter

  12. von-Bremen-Map CorrelationwithEU Offshore WindPower whole year

  13. von-Bremen-Map CorrelationwithEU OnshoreWind Power whole year

  14. von-Bremen-Map CorrelationwithEU total On+OffshoreWind Power slide 14

  15. Spatial Smoothing Effects 1-hour Power Gradients

  16. consumption anomaly [GW] (mean=357GW) Monthly Solar & Wind Generation & LoadFluctuations in Europe PV WindLastanomalie Source: L.von Bremen et al. Proc. 8th Int. Offshore Integration Workshop (Ackermann Workshop), Bremen 2009

  17. „Optimal Mix“ of Solar and Wind for a 100% Supply Source: L.von Bremen et al. Proc. 8th Int. Offshore Integration Workshop (Ackermann Workshop), Bremen 2009

  18. Conclusions • Meso-scale simulations exhibit stronger variability of regional power than former studies using only global-scale analysis • Large-scale wind power integration (e.g. 80%) will be much easier with an On+Offshore SuperGrid to smooth variability www.OffshoreGrid.eu www.SafeWind.eu jens.tambke@forwind.de

  19. Back up slides

  20. Meso-scale Model WRF WRF model: NCEP initialization 2-domain-setup, one-way-nesting 1st domain resolution: 27x27 km² 2nd domain resolution: 9x9 km²

  21. Speeds in Storm „Kyrill“, Jan‘07 [m/s] Hourly WRF-wind speeds [m/s] at 90m height

  22. Storms at FINO1 and in WRF

  23. European On&Offshore Power Power [GW] June 2030 Hour of the Year

  24. unstable -0.6 < 10m/L < +0.6 stable 10m/L -0.6 -0.3 0 +0.3 +0.6 WRF Wind Speed Profiles & Thermal Stratification Profiles are bin-averaged between very unstable (convective) situations and very stable stratification: -0.6 < 10m/L < +0.6, where L is the Monin-Obukhov-Length

  25. WRF DWD-LME Observation for wind directions between 190° and 250° Mean Wind Profiles at FINO1

  26. WRF Speed Ratio u90./u30 vs. 10m/L Monin-Obukhov Obs. WRF Slide 26

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