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Data From the Tárki Household Monitor survey

István György Tóth Effects of the crisis on the income distribution in Hungary ( some initial results ). Data From the Tárki Household Monitor survey. The context of the crisis in HU. The crisis found a country with an already large debt service

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Data From the Tárki Household Monitor survey

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  1. István György Tóth Effects of the crisis on the income distribution in Hungary (some initialresults) Data From the Tárki Household Monitor survey

  2. The context of the crisis in HU The crisis found a country with an already large debt service The country just passed a wave of budgetary adjustments (austerity measures) before the crisis Hu is a small and very open economy (multinationals producing a very large part of GDP) Among households, a large debt is taken in foreign currencies – large exposure to exchange rate volatility..

  3. Social policy measures affecting the shape of the income distribution in 2003-2007… Before Summer 2006 : Public sector wage rises Pension increases (indexation, 13th month pension) Redirecting family support to lower income groups (abolishing family tax allowances, raising family allowances) Other taxes: decrease of VAT rates After Summer 2006: Social insurance contributions: extension, increase PIT, EVA: special „solidarity” taxes, increase of top rates Other taxes: VAT, duties Layoffs in public sector … has gone in the same direction. First: improvements for the lower middle classes, then worsening for upper middle classes

  4. Major economic indicators, Hungary, 2000-2009 GDP growth %, Inflation, %, HHold consumption Gross and net real earnings Note same quarter of the previous year=100

  5. The data series • CSO Income Surveys (- 1987) • Hungarian Household Panel (1992-1997) • TÁRKI Household Monitor (1998-)

  6. Themes of the 2009 Tárki Household Monitor • Major research questions: • Income distribution, poverty, • Labour market, • social stratification and inequalities, • Social and political attitudes. • Sample: N= 2048 households, N= 3670 persons. • Questionnaires: hhold and personal (16+ respondents). • Field: 2010. February-March

  7. Estimates of various inequality measures and their confidence intervals between 1987 and 2009 (person ekvivalent incomes P90/P10 S10/S1 Gini

  8. Estimates for % of people and for 000 persons falling within the various median% brackets % distribution Well off (med 200%+) Upper middle (med 120-200%) Middle (med 80-120%) Lower middle (med50-80%) Poor (-med50%) total 000 persons Well off (med 200%+) Upper middle (med 120-200%) Middle (med 80-120%) Lower middle (med50-80%) Poor (-med50%) Poverty estimates, 000 persons con. interval Upper lower Total population, 000 persons *based on st err, 95% conf int

  9. Share of per capita personal income deciles from total HH disposable incomes between 1962 and 2009 Source: 1962–1987: KSH income surveys, Atkinson–Micklewright [1992] Table HI1.; 1992–1996: HHP waves I–VI., 2000–2009: Tárki Household Monitor.

  10. Change in average incomes of various income deciles (person equivalent* income) between 2007 and 2009 Inflation (14%) Average income growth (7%) No change level * e=0.73

  11. Polarization and shrinkage of the middle class between 1987 and 2005: distribution of persons in the 1987 per capita income deciles, based on current incomes deflated to 1987, percent Note: 1987 decile cutpoints are deflated median growth indices. Source: 1987: CSO Income distribution survey, 1996: HHP, 2003, 2005: Tárki Household Monitor.

  12. Shifts between income groups, 2005-2007 and 2007-2009: income decile cutpoints fixed at 2005, deflated by median income growth) 2005-2007 2007-2009 2005 level Distribution of persons, current year Personal income deciles, based on 2005 equivalent incomes Source: Tárki Household Monitor 2005, 2007 and 2009 Notes: distribution of persons in 2005 and 2007, within incomes 2005 income decile brackets (deflated by median incomes dynamics for 2007)

  13. Persons living in households with different emplyoment composition adults (estimate, 000 persons) head pensioner, no employed head pensioner, + employed Hh head empl, no other empl. Hh head empl, + other empl. Hh head inactive

  14. Summary: the combined income effects in HU … … so far • Lower real incomes, larger inequalities • Stage I (2005- mid 2006): Winners: lower middle classes and public sector employees • Stage II (mid 2006-2007): Loosers: upper middle classes and public servants • Stage III (2008 - ): loosers: lowest and (somewhat less) the upper deciles

  15. Further research: a potential frame of analysis for an intergenerational assessment of the effects of the crisis

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