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George Gray Molina Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez UNDP, Regional Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean

Comments The Multidimensional Poverty Index: Achievements, Conceptual and Empirical Issues Caroline Dotter - Stephan Klasen. George Gray Molina Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez UNDP, Regional Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean. International Conference on Measuring Human Development

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George Gray Molina Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez UNDP, Regional Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean

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  1. CommentsThe Multidimensional Poverty Index:Achievements, Conceptual and Empirical IssuesCaroline Dotter - Stephan Klasen George Gray Molina Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez UNDP, Regional Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean International Conference on Measuring Human Development March 4-5, 2013. New York City

  2. Overview • Index of acute multidimensional poverty, a counterpart to the $1,25 dollar a day indicator. • Of great policy interest. • Decomposability –what’s leading progress –education or access to water? • Disaggregation –all the way down to the hh, all the way up to the nation-state. • Dynamics – moves much faster than HDI

  3. Conceptual and empirical issues • Use of the World Health Survey • Problematic use • Dynamics in the MPI • Further work on understanding the dynamics of changes • Simplification of the MPI • Reduce the number of standard of living indicators • Modify schooling, mortality, and nutritional indicators • Union, intermediate, or intersection cutoffs? (intersection) • Inequality in the spread of deprivations (pending) • Reporting the multidimensional incidence instead of the MPI (both) • Choice of dimensional cutoffs (pending)

  4. A higher threshold MPI • Why not focus empirical firepower on creating an MPI 2.0, equivalent to the 4 dollar/day indicator? • “Similar to the international income poverty line which is less and less relevant for an increasing number of countries whose national poverty lines are substantially above the $1.25 line, one might consider whether one should similarly construct a (weakly) relative MPI cut-off that rises with average well-being in a country”. • Not to celebrate progress in middle income countries, nor highlight their middle classes, but for three other reasons: • The focus on poverty will tend to disappear w/out indicators, Currently 37 million under 1.25/day line in LAC, but close to 200 million under/near 4/day poverty line. • Inequalities need to be highlighted. The focus on a higher threshold indicator will illustrate a moving gradient. Will also allow a debate on how to transition from highly targeted interventions to universal floors of social protection. • Decompositions on income inequality show (predictably) that “labor income” explains improvements. Need something similar for non-income based well-being. Will likely highlight the role of social policy and the state.

  5. Could add new dimensions, new indicators Could tinker with thresholds for first-cutoff Could tinker with second-cutoff or estimate “weakly- relative” cutoffs that rise with income (Chen and Ravallion 2012)

  6. An (imperfect) example of higher thresholds relative to LAC Meaningful for policy purposes (LAC-specific) What about Asia, Africa, and the Middle East? Source: HDR 2011, and own calculations. All three indicators are expressed in %.

  7. The poverty line gradient (left) Where are the multidimensional poor? (right) $4 a day $5 a day $1.25 a day $2.5 a day Source: Chen & Ravallion 2012 Source: Alkire & Santos 2010 What dimensions/indicators are relevant in each region?

  8. To conclude… • The MPI: • Has been successful in comparing acute deprivations across countries. It can be seen as the counterpart of the $1.25 poverty line. • Very policy relevant: cases of Colombia, Mexico, and subnational governments in Brazil and El Salvador. • Basic MPI might need some twitches, but the most important issue is the use, not the exquisite statistical series. Again, the biggest complaint on MPI is the slowperiodicity, not empirical or conceptual flaws. • To do: • “Higher-threshold” MPIs as counterparts to the $2.5, $4, or $5 dollars a day poverty lines are needed. Thought experiment: Why not describe how trajectories diverge/converge between the $1.25/MPI 1.0 and $4/MPI 2.0 over time, say back from 2000? The dynamics should be different, should yield different insight about how poverty evolves. Why not analyze the drivers of MPI progress more carefully? Will likely move pendulum from market-based “labor income story” to social policy “human assets” story.

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