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WHAT RECOVERY YOU SAY???

WHAT RECOVERY YOU SAY???. GOOD QUESTION WE SAY!. WHAT RECOVERY???. If you took today’s economic fundamentals as a snapshot in time we would still be in the worst recession since the great depression!. Employment. Job Losses Unemployment Manufacturing Job Numbers.

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WHAT RECOVERY YOU SAY???

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  1. WHAT RECOVERY YOU SAY??? GOOD QUESTION WE SAY!

  2. WHAT RECOVERY??? If you took today’s economic fundamentals as a snapshot in time we would still be in the worst recession since the great depression!

  3. Employment Job Losses Unemployment Manufacturing Job Numbers

  4. Job Losses in Recent U.S. Recessions U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total Nonfarm Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted. 1974 Recession 1981 Recession 1990 Recession Jul ‘74 Jul ‘81 Jun ‘90 2001 Recession Feb ‘01 Dec ‘07 Current Recession Current w / Prelim Benchmark Adj.

  5. Official vs. Real Unemployment (accounts for part-time workers who used to work full timeand people who have stopped looking for work) Sept. 2010 17.1% U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted (Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization).

  6. U-6 Unemployment Rate

  7. Unemployment Classifications • Category U-3: This is the official unemployment number, the formula for which has been largely unchanged since 1940, and represents the total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force. For this category, if you did any work at all during the reference week, you are considered employed. If you did no work, but searched for a job sometime in the 4 weeks prior to the survey, you are “unemployed.” If you do not meet either test, you are “not in the labor force.”

  8. Unemployment Classifications • Category U-6: This is the most comprehensive of the alternative measures, and BLS expects it to be used to demonstrate the degree to which existing and potential labor resources are not being utilized. It captures workers who are visibly underemployed and all persons who are “marginally attached” to the labor force. Specifically, the formula adds the following workers: • Total unemployed workers (U-3) • All “marginally attached” workers • Persons not in the labor force who want a job, and explicitly available for work, and have looked for work sometime in the past year (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past year), but are no longer looking for work for some reason. • This includes “discouraged workers” • A sub-class of marginally attached workers, who are not currently looking because they believe there are no jobs available or there are none for which they would qualify. • Currently the definition or discouraged worker includes people who have stopped looking for work, but have made some attempt to find a job within the past year. Once these people have been "discouraged" for more than a year, they are no longer included. Prior to 1993, this was not the case: people who had not looked within a year were still included. Some analysts believe this has cut the number of discouraged workers in half. • Total workers employed part time for economic reasons • Persons who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

  9. Three Charts That Will Infuriate Taxpayers

  10. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Not Seasonally Adjusted U.S. Manufacturing Jobs(in thousands) June 1998 17.7 Million Jobs March 2010 11.5 Million Jobs Over 6 million manufacturing jobs have been lost since manufacturing last peaked in 1998

  11. The last time we had this few manufacturing jobs was APRIL 1941 March 2010 11.5 Million Jobs April 1941 11.5 Million Jobs

  12. Wal-Mart’ing of AmericaEmployment in Manufacturing vs. Retail Sectors Less Manufacturing Jobs now than any time since 1950! Average Manufacturing Job: $18.46 /hr Average Retail Job: $12.99 /hr Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Survey, Not Seasonally Adjusted; National Industry-Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates

  13. Red Taping of AmericaEmployment in Manufacturing vs. Government Sectors Less Manufacturing Jobs now than any time since 1950! Average Manufacturing Job: $18.46 /hr Average Gov’t Job: $23.00 /hr Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Survey, Not Seasonally Adjusted; National Industry-Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates

  14. Existing Stimulus is Not Enough 26-29 Million 6-8 million jobs needed for population growth in next 4-5 years 7-9 million underemployed workers 3.5 million jobs for new workers over last 27 months 3.5 million by March 2011 Over 8.2 million jobs just to return to Dec. 2007 levels from Mar. 2010

  15. Creating Jobs MUST BETop Priority Over 25+ Million Jobs Needed • More than 8.4 million lost in recession • Another 3.5 million needed to be created for the new entrants into the workforce over the last 27 months • More than 7-9 million underemployed/working part time • More than 6-8 million jobs in the next 4 to 5 years to keep up with population growth

  16. Creating Jobs MUST BETop Priority • This totals to 26-29 million jobs that we need to create over the next 4-5 years • On a separate note: More than 6 million manufacturing jobs lost since 1998 due to failed trade policies

  17. How Did We Get Here? ?

  18. How Did We Get Here? 1970---Today: A massive Failure of Trade Policies Mercantilism wins out versus FREE Trade Bought into a Failed Economic Model: A Service based Economy could replace a Manufacturing based Economy as the Wealth Creation Engine of Our Economy and……. …..the Driver for a Healthy and Growing Middle Class! Result: 1—Manufacturing shrinks from over 30% to 9.9% of GDP—the Destruction of the Middle Class 2—Creation of Service/Financial based Bubble Economy—(DOT COM./ENRON/HOUSING/PONZI SCHEME TYPE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS) 3—The Mother of all Ponzi Schemes (MADOFF NOT)

  19. Value of U.S. Dollar (1973-2010) (as valued against currencies of major U.S. trading partners) Feb. 1997 Sept. 2010 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, Nominal Broad Dollar Index (Trade Weighted Index)

  20. DM and Yen /U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate(Average annual rate, 1980–1995) Plaza Accord September 22, 1985 Yen per U.S.D DM per U.S.D. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Pacific Exchange Rate Service

  21. DM and Yen /U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate vs. Trade Deficit(Average annual rate, 1980–1995) Plaza Accord September 22, 1985 Yen per U.S.D Trade Deficit DM per U.S.D. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Pacific Exchange Rate Service

  22. U.S. Trade Deficit (1980-1991) Plaza Accord Source: U.S. Trade in Goods with World (Seasonally Adjusted) in Billions of Dollars U.S. Census Bureau

  23. U.S. Trade Deficit (1980-2010) Global Recession Impact of Chinese policies China pegs ¥ to $ Plaza Accord USSR Collapse China will Account for almost 40% of the U.S. Trade Deficit in 2010! Source: U.S. Trade in Goods with World (Seasonally Adjusted) in Billions of Dollars U.S. Census Bureau

  24. How DO We Get Back ?

  25. A Nation That Builds Things Talking Points

  26. Number One Focus 2010

  27. An Independent America

  28. Achieve Energy Independence • Develop ALL domestic energy resources – Traditional and Renewable • This Will Create Jobs • Building energy infrastructure • Developing and providing energy • Securing affordable energy for American manufacturing • Driving R&D in energy sector

  29. Free Trade • Restore American Manufacturing by Balancing our Trade Deficit in: • Energy • Manufactured Goods • We Must Restore Global Trade Balance: • Produce more in America • Remove barriers to American exports • Vigorously enforce Rules-Based Free Trade • STOP China’s Currency Manipulation-NOW

  30. Free Trade • Enforcing the rules that were agreed upon is not “protectionist”! • Counter China’s illegal trade practices and restore global trade balance • Increase exports and remind the world that we are a nation that builds things

  31. 21st Century Infrastructure • Time to Upgrade Crumbling Infrastructure • $2.2 Trillion needed over next 5 years • American Society of Civil Engineers • This will create jobs through: • Building our new infrastructure • Laying foundation for tomorrow’s manufacturers • Stimulus: Only $60 billion of $787 billion for infrastructure, and very few long-term investments or critical projects.

  32. The Path Out:Real Wealth Creation Not one where we do each others laundry, • Or Sue each other, • Or Repackage phony financial instruments, • All to create PONZI or Phony Wealth or Transfer of Wealth • All of which eventually causes Bubble implosions as we have seen repeatedly over the last two decades.

  33. The Path Out:Real Wealth Creation • The idea that we could be successful and create better tomorrows by having little or no manufacturing and all services, IS A FAILED THEORY—A MISERABLY FAILED MINDSET AND ECONOMIC MODEL! • Real and lasting wealth is and always has been created by making and building things and servicing the goods producing sector NOT by a predominance of servicing services!

  34. Number One Focus 2010

  35. An Independent America

  36. Nucor’s Best Years Are Ahead Of Us

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