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Eastern Region Activities

Eastern Region Activities. Fred McMullen Sub-Regional Aviation Workshop WFO Columbia, SC 26 February 2009. Measuring Weather / Traffic Impact. The Weather Index expresses severity of weather impact on the NAS, weighted by air transportation service demands. En-route Convective Weather.

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Eastern Region Activities

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  1. Eastern Region Activities Fred McMullen Sub-Regional Aviation Workshop WFO Columbia, SC 26 February 2009

  2. Measuring Weather / Traffic Impact The Weather Index expresses severity of weather impact on the NAS, weighted by air transportation service demands En-route Convective Weather Local Airport Weather Capacity, Safety constraints Traffic Demand ATM, Airline Response Strategies Operational Outcomes National Airspace System (NAS)

  3. WITI is a weighted sum of three components: Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI)Quantifies “the hand the NAS was dealt today” • En-route Component reflecting impact of convective weather on routes to/from major airports • Terminal Component for major airports: local weather impact • Queuing Delay Component for same airports reflecting excess traffic demand vs. capacity Weather is weighted by traffic • Used by the FAA on a regular basis: • Measure system performance in an objective manner • Compare different seasons’ Wx/traffic impact with outcomes (e.g. delays)

  4. WITI-FA (“Forecast Accuracy”) En-route weather E-WITI uses actual convective Wx data (NCWD) E-WITI-FA uses convective forecast data, (CCFP) Both use the same scheduled traffic on major flows Convective forecast data is converted to “quasi-NCWD” format (probability or intensity of Wx converted to % max NCWD score for hexagonal grid cells) Terminal weather T-WITI uses actual surface Wx data (METARs) T-WITI-FA uses forecast data (TAFs) Both use the same scheduled traffic at major airports TAF converted to quasi-METAR form, “rolling look-ahead” stream

  5. “Delta Weather” vs. “Delta Weather Impact” (Delta WITI) CCFP converted to Quasi-NCWD NCWD “Delta Wx” Wx itself was overforecast

  6. “Delta Weather” vs. “Delta Weather Impact” (Delta WITI) Large areas covered by this CCFP see very little traffic

  7. “Delta Weather” vs. “Delta Weather Impact” (Delta WITI) WITI-FA (CCFP converted to Quasi-NCWD) E-WITI (NCWD) “Delta WITI” Wx impact on traffic was underforecast

  8. Terminal WITI Based on Forecast Wx T-WITI-FA Apply the methodology developed for en-route convective weather (E-WITI-FA) to terminal weather First, compute T-WITI using METARs Then, compute T-WITI-FA using TAFs for same airports • FTUS43 KLOT 302300 • KORD 010423Z 010424 05012KT P6SM BKN250 • FM0900 12007KT P6SM BKN250 • FM1400 24012KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB • FM1800 30012G18KT P6SM BKN040 • FM2200 01012KT P6SM FEW050=

  9. WITI In Operations Monday, December 15, 2008 IAH: Low ceilings, GDP of 36 According to WITI model for ceilings above 700 Ft, AAR of about 82 could have been sustained (according to FAA OIS, IAH AAR for IMC varies from about 72 to 80 depending on ceilings) IAH METAR and TAF data 9

  10. WITI In Operations Monday, December 15, 2008 LGA: Wind, GDP of 32-36 Actual wind was generally below 15 Kt, less than forecast LGA METAR and TAF data 10

  11. WITI In Operations Onset of clouds AOB 2300ft happened earlier than forecast

  12. AvnFPS Operational Impact Capability

  13. Assessing Forecast Impact on Operations • Part of QC’ing TAFs before dissemination • Default checks on TAFs are from NWSI 10-813 • Fuel-Alternate • vsby < 3 miles or ceilings < 2000 feet • LIFR Condition • vsby < 1 mile or ceilings < 500 feet • More sophisticated checks are possible and can be tailored to specific airports having unique operational constraints

  14. TAF Impact Writing • Elements of the TAF forecast groups can be examined and used in expression attribute of impact rules • Presence of thunderstorms (ts) [True/False] • Visibility (vsby) [statue miles] • Ceiling Height (cig) [feet] • Wind (wind.shift,wind.cross,wind.runway) [knots] • ‘expr’ is a Python expression that evaluates either True or False.

  15. TAF Impact Writing • A forecast of strong crosswinds at a major hub can cause ground delays. Use BOS as an example. • Need runway orientations to calculate wind components orthogonal and parallel to runway(s) Runway 4R/22L referenced as [0] Runway 9/27 referenced as [1] Runway 15R/33L referenced as [2]

  16. TAF Impact Writing wind[n].cross = crosswind for runway #n wind[n].runway = parallel component to runway #n wind[n].shift = tail-to-head or head-to-tailwind change from last forecast group (T or F) • Edit /awips/adapt/avnfps/etc/tafs/KBOS/impact.cfg [conditions] items=cond_1,cond_2,cond_3,cond_4 : : [cond_3] tag=wshft level=2 text=significant windshift on 15R/33L expr=wind[2].shift and wind[2].runway>15 [cond_4] tag=xw level=3 text=significant crosswind on 15R/33L expr=wind[2].cross>15

  17. Monitoring Customization • AvnFPS Rule Editor allows customized rules of many sources • METARs • Lightning • LLWS • CCFP • See AvnFPS User’s Guide Appendix B for more details

  18. TAF Editor Tools • Dropping new modules into the /toolpy directory will cause it to show up in the TAF Editor • More details on writing TAF Editor tools can be found in Appendix F of the AvnFPS User’s Guide

  19. Enhanced Services • Routine 3 hour amendments (at least the OEP Airports) • CONSISTENCY between products • Coordinate with CWSUs • 06Z and 12Z TAFs are very important • Timing of convection is key in the 06Z and 12Z TAFs • Be situationally aware of the CCFP product

  20. Best Practices • Focus on the first six hours of the forecast • Lean toward GFS-LAMP when IFR conditions are occurring • An average of the guidance is often a good forecast. • Check Arrival Fix http://www.fly.faa.gov/Products/AADC/aadc.html

  21. Corridor Integrated Weather System Canadian TDWR NEXRAD Pilots Weather Radars Decision Support Tools Real-time Weather Product Generator Models (e.g., RUC) LLWAS ASOS Satellites Web-based Tools Surface Weather • Provides integrated weather picture to FAA and Airline personnel • Accurate 2-hour convective weather forecast, echo top information • 91 Dedicated displays, > 60 Web users • 24/7 Availability Aircraft Dedicated Displays Lightning

  22. Strategic Planning • Air Traffic Management (ATM) Planning • ‘Tactical’ Planning (0-2hr) • ‘Strategic’ Planning (2-6hr) Median Flight Time ~ 2 hr 2 hr 5hr 3 hr 2 hr

  23. Web Site Access to CIWS Productshttp://ciwswww.wx.ll.mit.edu Post-June 2008 CONUS Domain Pre-June 2008 LegacyDomain

  24. Response to User Requests Colors for the Forecast and Verification Contours and the Growth and Decay Trends products are added to the legend Coverage is extended to the entire continental US All products loop All products are accessible from a single window Updated loop controls provide greater flexibility, including ability to toggle through images

  25. Winter Mode

  26. Winter Precipitation Product • Provides additional detail within Level 1 precipitation, which may contain light (Level 1a), moderate (Level 1b), or heavy (Level lc) snow or mixed precipitation • Precipitation phase is represented in greens (rain), pinks (mixed), and blues (snow) • Loops from -120 min to present in user-selectable increments Filter Options Product Status Buttons

  27. Winter Precip Forecast Product • Loops available from 5 min to 120 min in 5-min increments • Loop interval displayed on Website is user-selectable • Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi (8 km) to ~0.5 nmi (1 km) • Update rate: 5 min Filter forecast levels Product Status Buttons

  28. Convective Mode

  29. Growth and Decay

  30. Forecast Contours

  31. CIWS Forecast

  32. WFO Operational Uses • 0-2 hour timing for TAFsand AWWs KBOS 281120Z 281212 27006KT P6SM FEW250 FM1500 20007KT P6SM BKN250 FM1800 15011KT P6SM SCT050 FM2200 20009KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB FM0200 24008KT P6SM SCT050= KBOS 281740Z 282118 28014G19KT P6SM VCSH SCT060 FM0200 24008KT P6SM SCT050 FM1500 28010KT P6SM SCT050= 12Z TAF 18Z TAF

  33. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1224 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008 ...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING UNTIL 130 PM… A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LOGAN AIRPORT AROUND 1 PM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRPORT BEFORE 130 PM. 1625z CIWS Forecast Contours

  34. WFO Operational Use • Enhanced Short Term Forecasting 6 Hour PoP Forecast 2 Hour PoP Forecast Using CIWS

  35. Wiki David L. Beachler WFO-CTP Fred McMullen ERH-RAM

  36. What is it and why… • Wiki -> Wikipedia • Housed on a centralized server, and maintained by anyone wishing to participate • Information provides background to local program areas, and a means to share information with fewer email traffic • AVN page serves as a clearinghouse: • Organized format, provides resources in a timely fashion (Service Backup…TAFs) • Runway charts, approach diagrams, etc… will show example from WFO-CTP later

  37. ERH-MSD Aviation Wiki • Eastern Region (ER) RAM can provide information to Aviation Focal Points (AFPs) • AFPs have access to best practices from other ER WFOs • Outside box thinking • Serve as a resource for WFOs conducting service backup

  38. So where do we start… • ERH now maintains ER-Wiki server https://collaborate.werh.noaa.gov/wiki/index.php/Main_Page (email username without @noaa.gov and email password)

  39. The look…

  40. ERH-MSD Main Page…

  41. ERH-Aviation page…

  42. Collaborative Tools…

  43. AVN-CTP…

  44. Standardized Template… • WFO-AFPs will have their own section: • This will be uniform amongst all offices in the structure TAF sites/Airport Specific Info/Amendment Criteria (SSTAC) • ER Verification Monthly Scores

  45. Standardized Template (draft)…

  46. Training… • Previously mentioned, no IT background needed • The ER-AVN Wiki page continues to evolve • Improvements as more provide feedback • Standardized nomenclature for AVN items • This will provide a means to remain efficient • Prevent future issues with overlaps • This is common amongst time sensitive documents that can be uploaded

  47. Contact Info… • David L. Beachler WFO-CTP AFP David.Beachler@noaa.gov • Fred McMullen ERH-RAM Fred.Mcmullen@noaa.gov

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