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Visions and perspectives ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY Gabriele Grea *, Giuseppe Siciliano

XV Riunione Scientifica della Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica (SIET) "Trasporti, organizzazione spaziale e sviluppo economico sostenibile", Venezia 18-20 settembre 2013. Visions and perspectives ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY

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Visions and perspectives ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY Gabriele Grea *, Giuseppe Siciliano

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  1. XV Riunione Scientifica della Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica (SIET) "Trasporti, organizzazione spaziale e sviluppo economico sostenibile", Venezia 18-20 settembre 2013 Visions and perspectives ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY Gabriele Grea*, Giuseppe Siciliano* *Center for Research on Regional Economics, Transport and Tourism Bocconi University Milan

  2. Transport, mobility, FREEDOM Transport Demand for transportis a deriveddemand, depending from the demand of othereconomicsectors. Users«consume» transportservices in order to accessothergoods or services. Relevantvariables: time, space, cost. Mobility Mobilitycan be consideredas a functionality/capability. Useris the core, accessingservices under given «constraints». Relevantvariables: time, space, cost, experience/accessibility FREEDOM.

  3. Turningconstraintsintoopportunities (I) • Some facts • More than 60% of EU citizens live in urbanareas, where 85% of GDP isproduced. • Becauseof congestioncosts, 1% of UE GDP islosteveryyear. • Trafficcontribution to CO2 production is 40%. • Onethird of road fatalitieshappens in urbanenvironment (and victims are mainlywalkers or bikers). • From EC Green Paper “Towards a new culture for urbanmobility” (september 2007)

  4. Turningconstraintsintoopportunities (II) Sustainable development approach: • Use of environmental, cultural and economic resources, minimizing external effects at local and global level; • Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs; • Maintaining attractiveness and competitiveness of the local environment. Sustainable mobility is a "win-win strategy" because it combines environmental and economic advantages with the stimulus to economic growth and the livability of cities.

  5. Users, howwillbehave? I. SUSTAINABLE Quality of environment Energy consumption/production Safety Global emissions

  6. Users, howwillbehave? II. SHARE Space Vehicles Information and knowledge Travel experiences

  7. Users, howwillbehave? III. SMART SUSTAINABLE SHARED Seamless Flexible Maximisingourvalue of time Looking for innovative andaddedvalueservices

  8. How to measureSmart Mobility? Objective and ratio The objective Tomeasure and compare the degreeofsmartnessof a meaningfulpanelofItaliancities in termsofmobility. This area isparticularlyrelevant in termsof impact for the life of the city population, and so is the potential impact oftechnologicaladvances and of policy innovations. • The ratio • The indicatorfavourscitieswhichallowtheir citizen tomeet the followingneeds: • Totravelsafely – whichweconsideras a fundamentalrequirement, in light ofbothtechnologicaldevelopments in termsofvehicle design, and the increasedefficiencyoftransportserviceswhich can replace the private one. • Totravelseamlessly– itis the conceptual key pillar of the conceptof “intelligentmobility”, in light of the complexityoftripswhichhappen in anurbanenvironment and toallrelatedcriticalissues. • Tobeconnectedto global networks– itisrelevant in ordertomeasure the seamlessnessof the inside of a city withitsoutside (accessibilityto/fromothernodesof the global network).

  9. How to measure Smart Mobility? Methodology • A performance indicatorisassociatedtoeachneed, whichmeasures the degree in which the needismet in each city. The variables are selected so thatthey can represent the use-benefits-possibilitiesgeneratedby the mobilitysystems, ratherthansheerindicatorsofendowment. • The Smart MobilityIndicatorof city iisthendefinedasMi Whereis a correctionof the performance indicatorPof the city ifor the needn definedas: Wherepis the “smartnessthreshold” chosenfor the indicator P. Suchsmartnessthresholdshavebeenintroduced in ordertofavourcities in whichresults are goodforall the indicatorsinvolved: we include completeness in the evaluationofsmartness, as the abilityto generate an “intelligent” environment in termsofall the definedneeds. On the contrary, if a city is a best practice in onlyoneof the needs, butemergesas “notsmart” in otherareas, the indicatorwill handicap it.

  10. A Smart MobilityindicatorforItaliancities Performance indicators

  11. A Smart MobilityindicatorforItaliancities Results Performance indicators are summedbymeansof a weightvector: Low accidentrates: 0,2 Connectivityto global networks: 0,3 Seamlessnessurbanmobility: 0,5 Thematicicons show if the city meets the smartnessthreshold in each area (green), or isclosetoit (yellow) or falldefinitely short (red).

  12. Whataboutcarsthen? «The emergence of a new automobile DNA (…) promises a renassaince in vehicles design. Itwill open up for explorationspaces of design possibilitiesthathaveneverbeforeseriouslyconsidered. (Mitchell W. J. et. Al, Reinventing the automobile, MIT Press 2010) Driverless Modular Specialized Connected … The car of the future Energy efficient* Eco- friendly* *IBM Automotive Global Study 2020

  13. And in the end, isitstill just aboutmakingcars? Business models Supply chains Automotive sector: New products New services Service providers: Specificservices (e. g. fleet management, car rental, etc.) Widerrange of (sustainable) mobilityservices, B2B and B2C Users: CAR OWNERS MOBILITY CONSUMERS

  14. And now, an idea coming from far away… “Within a year, I hope, we shall begin the manufacture of an electric automobile. (…) Mr. Edison and I have been working for some years on an electric automobile which would be cheap and practicable. Cars have been built for experimental purposes, and we are satisfied now that the way is clear to success. The problem so far has been to build a storage battery of light weight which would operate for long distances without recharging. Mr. Edison has been experimenting with such a battery for some time.” (Henry Ford, New York Times interview 11.1.1914).

  15. … will be possibletomorrow? Source: M. de Saint-Chéron , Mobilitytech Milan, Oct 19th 2010

  16. E-mobility: which factors are driving the system?

  17. Vehicles- Batteries and OEMsplans Batteries: Performance 150 km to 300 km. Duration from 3 years (1000 deep discharge) to 10 (in ten years). Costs from 700-1000 $/kWh, to 300$-400$. OEMs plans: Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and BatteryElectricvehicles

  18. Scenarios and forecasts Comparison of scenarios in terms of vehicle sales (EU level) Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and BatteryElectricvehicles

  19. Scenarios and forecasts New car sales shares in 2020 and 2030 Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and BatteryElectricvehicles

  20. Users - Electro mobility strategic Diagram “non-mainstream people, with different connotations ranging from "a computer expert or enthusiast" to "a person heavily interested in a hobby“ (…)” [wikipedia]

  21. Hardware interactions: impacts on the grid Source: JRC ies 2009, Perujo A., Ciuffo B. Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System

  22. Hardware interactions: impacts on the grid Source: JRC ies 2009, Perujo A., Ciuffo B. Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System

  23. Business models • Business models for mobility • Product oriented • Service oriented • Use (e.g. car sharing, fleet management, etc.) • Result(transportservices) • Approach to classification of business models for electricmobility, based on 3 driver clusters: • vehicle + battery • infrastructure • integrationgrid + vehicle Source: Lerch et al. (2010)

  24. Business model drivers: vehicle+battery Source: Lerch et al. (2010) 24

  25. Business model drivers: infrastructure Source: Lerch et al. (2010) 25

  26. Business model drivers: infrastructure+vehicle Source: Lerch et al. (2010) 26

  27. Conclusions • Behavioralapproach to mobility, howsmartwillwe be? • How to measure the level of smartness for mobility in cities? • How mobilitywill be demanded, provided, «consumed»? • Electromobility and energy: which future, integration, business models? 27

  28. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! “If we don’t start imagining this future, and then start trying to help shape this future, we’re going to be left behind, because this future is going to happen with or without us” Bill Ford jr, 2013 For feedbacks and furtherdiscussion: Gabriele Grea gabriele.grea@unibocconi.it Skypegabgrea Google hangoutsgabriele.grea@gmail.com

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