What Water Problem? A Multi-Dimensional Perspective on Critical Water Issues in the Upper Vaal Catchment

1. What Water Problem?A Multi-Dimensional Perspective on Critical Water Issues in the Upper Vaal Catchment Prof. Anthony Turton Director: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd bronwyn@speakersinc.co.za www.anthonyturton.com © AR Turton, 2009 (except images used with permission from Pete Ashton

2. South Africa is ... • Highly water constrained. • Has an economy that has been built on a model in which costs have been externalized for over a century. • Has a poor human rights record. • Has left the mining sector to self-regulate. • Approaching a fundamental transition in which externalized costs are now being internalized (e.g. Eskom tariff’s).

3. World Water Scarcity 1990 Water scarcity is related to population growth as much as it is related to environmental factors

4. World Water Scarcity 2020 Note the Cuvelai and the Limpopo River Basin’s both pass into extreme stress because of population growth

5. World Water Scarcity 2050 Note the Orange River Basin now joins the Limpopo as extremely stressed systems

6. World Water Scarcity 2070 At this stage the most economically active portion of South Africa resembles the Middle East North Africa

7. Evaporation Streamflow Precipitation Africa’s fundamental development constraint is the conversion of precipitation (MAP) to runoff (MAR).

8. Zimbabwe (25) Namibia (7) Mozambique (2) Botswana (3) Orange-Senqu Limpopo Incomati Maputo Swaziland (5) Lesotho (3) South Africa (497) Key N Shared river basin 500 km Episodic river © P.J. Ashton Large Dams in Shared Basins

9. 1. Exceptionally low conversion of rainfall to runoff South Africa: Rainfall and Runoff (Ashton et al., 2008) Highly variable rainfalls; unequally distributed

10. 1. Numerous large dams – small dams not included 2. High proportion of runoff is impounded in large dams Runoff and Water Capture (Ashton et al., 2008)

11. River Basin 2000 2025 Population WCI Population WCI Orange-Senqu 11 319 1 183 19 502 1 803 Limpopo 11 906 4 219 18 790 4 974 Incomati 1 122 1 552 1 933 2 310 Maputo 1 165 1 376 2 009 2 366 WCI values: 0 – 100 = Water security 100 – 500 = Water sufficiency 500 – 1 000 = Occasional, seasonal water stress 1 000 – 2 000 = Frequent water stress; seasonally severe > 2 000 = “Beyond the water barrier” - chronic water stress Water Crowding Index (Ashton et al., 2008) Water Crowding Index (WCI) = Number of people per million cubic metres of water

12. Additional 18.6 % of available water - “imports” from within RSA and construction of new dams 2. Demand in 2025 outstrips supply by 499 million cubic metres Current (2000) and Projected (2025) RSA Water Needs (Ashton, 2009)

13. 1. Dramatic increase in urban sector demand for water in all basins 2. Large increase in power sector demand for water in the Orange-Senqu and Limpopo basins 3. Increased water demands from rural and mining sectors in Limpopo basin Percentage Increase in Water Needs by sector - 2025 (Ashton, 2009)

14. 80 ? Requires new sources of water (? Imports) + radical changes to water use patterns Total surface water + groundwater resources + maximum recycling (Requires new water storage and treatment technologies) 60 Surface water + some groundwater + some recycling 40 Water demand (Billion m3 / Year) Possible extension of time with intensive WC and WDM (Existing technology) Low water use estimate [No change in per capita use] 20 0 1965 1985 2005 2025 2045 Years Water Demand in South Africa © P.J. Ashton

15. T = Acidic atmospheric deposits G = Groundwater contamination - fluoride and/or nitrate U = Urban / industrial effluent – pathogens + nutrients + organics A = Agricultural chemicals E A E = Excessive sediment A M = Metals (mining) E A G R = Radioactivity A M U A S = Salinity Orange-Senqu U A U M A Limpopo U S M M A Incomati T A U U R M S A Maputo E A A M G E A U U E U G R E Key N Shared river basin 500 km Episodic river © P.J. Ashton Quality Problems in Shared Basins

16. Three Types of Pollution • Radiological (downstream of gold mining) • Uranium and its daughter by-products • Biological (downstream of sewage works) • Vibrio Cholerae • Cyanobacteria (microcystin) • Chemical (downstream of any factory, agricultural activity and/or industrial activity) • Endocrine Disruption (gender-defining organs) • This affects everybody so it unites us • Dual Stream Reticulation System

17. Vibrio Cholerae 7th Global Pandemic (1961) Toxigenic Vibrio Cholerae caused by a viral infection of the bacillus

18. Off-Balance Sheet Items Value Mine Closure Remediation Cost Externalized Costs Revenue V2 Dev Cost Profit V1 Balance Sheet Items Magnitude at Closure Time T1 T2 The Externalization of Costs Model Our national economic growth has been driven by an externalized cost model and this can no longer be sustained © Adler et al., 2007

19. Acid Mine Drainage in Gauteng Vertical Shaft Surface strata The volume of the mine void under the Witwatersrand is equal to 5 times the volume of Lake Kariba – with no evaporative loss - with new thinking and political will this can become a major source of New Water Dolomites Ore-bearing strata Workings Safety drive Eastern Basin Central Basin Western Basin Dyke Dyke

20. The WUC Proposal • Is optimal for the mining industry. • BUT optima are scale dependent, so it is sub-optimal for society. • Is being presented as the only viable option (which limits our choice). • Is based (at least in my professional opinion) on a number of flawed assumptions. (Main = cost recovery) • Presents six clusters of problem.

21. Problem Cluster 1 (Technical) • No treatment process can remove 100% of contamination 100% of the time... • Plug and pump assumption is flawed. • Uses the void in the Central Basin as a conduit. • While ignoring seismicity as a potential risk ...

22. Problem Cluster 2 (Moral) • The public has been given no choice. • Acceptable Risk is not yet defined and needs public input. • How many cancers of what type are “acceptable”? • The public is expected to subsidize the solution that gets the mines off the hook (avoidance of legal liability). • Because no treatment process will remove 100% of the contamination 100% of the time, only the best quality feedstock should be used for potable water.

23. Problem Cluster 3 (Legal) • Avoidance of the Polluter Pays Principle (by externalizing the cost onto society once more). • Possible claims for seismicity damage are not being considered.

24. Problem Cluster 4 (Social) • No attempt is being made to consider future livelihoods after mine closure. • A potential asset for future economic growth (water) is being permanently removed from the West and East Rand, with no consideration being given to possible future scenarios (Dual Stream Reticulation in the context of a future value-added Beneficiation Economic Model).

25. Problem Cluster 5 (Economic) • The scale of optimization that has been chosen (solving a mine-level problem) closes out other possible better optima that could benefit society and the economy in future. • Closes out options of potentially using the water as a foundation of a future value-added Beneficiation Economic Model based on a Dual Stream Reticulation system.

26. Problem Cluster 6 (Political) • By expecting the Minister to sign an Off-take Agreement without public consultation exposes her to considerable political risk. • Possible backlash arising from this factor. • Could this become the “Arms Deal” in the Water Sector in which Government is seen to side with the “privileged” mining industry at the expense of society at large?

27. Value Time A Future Economic Model? We need considerable Thought Leadership and the support of the Private Sector, Government and the Trades Union to make this transition. NewBeneficiation Economic Model Limits of Water and Energy Opening the debate on the possible role of Social Entrepreneurship. Externalized Cost Economic Model

28. Value Time The New Beneficiation Economic Model Our national economic growth can be stimulated by an internalized cost model based on Dual Stream Reticulation Potable Water Benefit Industrial Process Water This will cushion the impact of increased input costs from energy and water and will enable future economic growth

29. We need a new national vision that is based on the WEALTH Model W - Water This will enable us to link our water, energy and food security strategies and thus lead to sustainability E - Energy A - Affordability L - Leadership If you focus on WEALTH then an emergent property is Health (human and ecosystem) T - Technology H - Health

30. Millions of Years Before Present 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Sahelanthropus Tchadensis Orrorin Tugenensis Ardipithecus Ramidus Australopithicus Anamensis Australopithicus Afarensis Australopithicus Bahrleghazali Kenyanthropus Platyops Australopithicus Africanus Paranthropus Aethiopicus Australopithicus Garhi Homo Rudolfensis Paranthropus Boesei Paranthropus Robustus Homo Habilis Homo Ergaster Homo Erectus Homo Heidelbergensis Homo Neanderthalensis Homo Sapiens What makes us think that we will become the first hominid species to escape extinction?

31. Conclusion • South Africa is at a critical transition. • We either crash and burn as the Externalizion of Costs Model reachesthe end of its natural life ... • OR we transition to a new Beneficiation Economic Model that sees both water and energy as a flux and manages these accordingly. • I extend a hand of friendship to both the Government and WUC and state my intention to constructively engage.

32. Thank You Amehlo Amhlophe “My Eyes are White” Meaning that “I come in Peace”