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W HICH W ORLD ? Scenarios for the 21st Century

W HICH W ORLD ? Scenarios for the 21st Century. Inventing a Transformed World Allen Hammond. Rapid Global Change. a globalizing economy transforming technologies. …but what vision will guide that change?. Market world. A vision of the future in which . . . free markets

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W HICH W ORLD ? Scenarios for the 21st Century

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  1. WHICH WORLD?Scenarios for the 21st Century Inventing a Transformed World Allen Hammond

  2. Rapid Global Change • a globalizing economy • transforming technologies …but what vision will guide that change?

  3. Market world A vision of the future in which . . . • free markets • private enterprise • unprecedented technological innovation • global integration bring growing prosperity and social progress

  4. What could undercutMarket World ? Critical Trends • Demographic • Equity • Environmental • Social stresses • Security

  5. URBAN DEVELOPING URBAN DEVELOPED RURAL Urbanization billions of people

  6. Projected economic growth GNP (trillions constant $US)

  7. Income gaps Constant $US

  8. Environmental trends… the impact of industrialization

  9. The materials cycle Source: World Resources Institute

  10. Global industrial growth Index of activity

  11. Regional industrial growth2050 pollution potential Percent change from 1990

  12. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations parts per million

  13. Environmental trends...degradation of biological systems

  14. Threatened frontier forests of South America Low or no threat Medium or high threat Non frontier forests Unassessed for threat

  15. Threatened frontier forests of Asia Low or no threat Medium or high threat Non frontier forests Unassessed for threat

  16. Threatened frontier forests of Africa Low or no threat Medium or high threat Non frontier forests Unassessed for threat

  17. Threatened coral reefs Low Medium High

  18. The biosphere is under stress And so are communities that depend on it. • Degradation • Growing resource scarcity • Rural impoverishment • undercutting livelihoods • undermining social stability

  19. Social stresses • Persistent poverty, malnutrition • A tide of HIV orphans • The global teenager

  20. New threats to security and stability • Terrorism and global crime • Unemployment & urban instability • Illegal migration • Emerging new diseases • Global climate change

  21. Fortress world • Conflict between rich and poor • Widespread environmental degradation • Rising social instability • Potential for violence and chaos A darker vision of the future in which . . . creates fear and frustration . . .a world with islands of prosperity surrounded by an ocean of poverty and despair

  22. Transformed world A vision of the future based on the possibility of fundamental change . . . Is such a future realistic? • Market World economic dynamism, plus • Bottom-up social change/wider participation • New social accountability/new forms of governance creates a more peaceful, equitable, environmentally stable world.

  23. Reasons for hope An action agenda for a transformed world • Rising literacy • Innovation and technological change • New Actors ... Rise of civil society …Greening of global corporations • New development strategies

  24. With new actors and new technologies, could we not dramatically improve: • Industrial efficiency … new ways to meet societal needs, such as e-commerce? • Environmental productivity … transform management of natural resources, protect special places? • Human development … expand access, accelerate education, widen social perspectives, and increase opportunity?

  25. What are the barriers to innovation? • Inflexible institutions …not suited for managing a complex adaptive system … transparency as a strategy …novel partnerships • Outdated preconceptions …radically changed cost structures … the poor as a source of innovation

  26. The Research Agenda • “The challenge is to develop a science of sustainability that maintains a commitment to rigor, while recognizing the inherent uncertainty in complex systems and the need for advice on how to make sustainable choices” -- the Global Scenario Group, Bending the Curve, 1998

  27. Three possible trajectories into the future • Market World • Fortress World • Transformed World Are we innovative enough to create a Transformed World?

  28. Final Thoughts • The future is contingent …plausible trajectories diverge …choices matter • The world is closely linked …we have a huge stake in what happens in developing regions • Innovative solutions are critical

  29. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/WhichWorld/

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