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Advancements in Climate Change Contribution Modelling: Insights and Future Directions

This report outlines the latest advancements in climate change contribution modelling by the MATCH group. Key achievements include open research processes leading to peer-reviewed papers and effective calculations of climate change contributions. The future work will focus on addressing uncertainties, exploring longer-time scale test cases, and refining resolutions of sources at regional and sectoral levels. Upcoming papers aim to combine findings from previous studies. The goal is to enhance methods for assessing contributions and provide user-friendly computer tools for climate policy analysis.

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Advancements in Climate Change Contribution Modelling: Insights and Future Directions

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  1. Future workSB-23 17 May 2006 Niklas Höhne

  2. MATCH work to date • Open research process, leading to peer reviewed papers and also building capacity • Contributions to climate change can be calculated effectively and robustly • MATCH explored the influence of possible choices for selected regions • MATCH quantified the uncertainty of contributions for one illustrative test case Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

  3. Future work • Two papers as first steps in a series • Issues for a new paper combining earlier papers: • Other test cases with longer time scales including the 19th century • Uncertainty per region • Finer resolution of sources (countries, inside countries or over sectors) • Absolute and relative contributions • Substantial new work on uncertainties for early emissions. • Possible to explore further areas of research in the same mode of working and building on the MATCH work so far. Many in the MATCH group plan to continue their work on the scientific and methodological aspects related to contributions to climate change. • MATCH could report back to SBSTA in one to two years. Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

  4. Computer tools • Desirable: computer tool to calculate contributions to climate change, user selects the policy choices such as time horizon and indicator. • Several tools are already available, • Java Climate Model, Ben Mathews (www.climate.be/jcm) • FAIR model, Michel den Elzen (www.mnp.nl/fair) • CAIT tool, Jonathan Pershing (http://cait.wri.org/) • The MATCH group would not develop a new tool, but would be available to assess and evaluate existing tools Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

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