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Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître Chemin du Cyclotron, 2 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve

Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître Chemin du Cyclotron, 2 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve. Paramètres Astronomiques : le métronome des changements climatiques. A. Berger et M.F. Loutre.

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Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître Chemin du Cyclotron, 2 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve

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  1. Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître Chemin du Cyclotron, 2 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve Paramètres Astronomiques : le métronome des changements climatiques A. Berger et M.F. Loutre Ecole Eté de Physique sur la Physique de notre Planète : la Terre et son Climat, E2PHY, Université de Bordeaux I, 25-28 août 2003

  2. Last Glacial Maximum 21kyr BP Today LGM DT=-5°C Dsea level = –130m Dice volume = +52 106km3 CO2 = 200 ppmv Pre-industrial CO2 = 280 ppmv 2000 AD CO2 = 370 ppmv (Joussaume, 1993)

  3. (Paja Jovanovic, 1943)

  4. ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTION • MATHEMATICS OF INSOLATION • MODELLING THE PAST • MODELLING THE FUTURE • MAN’S IMPACTS ON CLIMATE/ • ASTRONOMICAL TIME SCALE

  5. ORBIT-ECC-LATSIS,2001

  6. ORBIT-O-LATSIS,2001

  7. ORBIT-11ky-LATSIS,2001

  8. 14 kyrBP 0.0167 • | ~80kyr SS Aphelion •  SS Perihelion 9 kyrBP | • 23°4 } High insolation Lat. MAX NH in summer } D lat in summer D season in high lat NH e large SS Perihelion (v=270°; e sin v min) MAX

  9. ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTION • MATHEMATICS OF INSOLATION • MODELLING THE PAST • MODELLING THE FUTURE • MAN’S IMPACTS ON CLIMATE/ • ASTRONOMICAL TIME SCALE

  10. Present day departure from the last 400kyr average of insolation

  11. 105 Wm-2 11 kyr BP 25 Wm-2 9 kyr AP

  12. 24h mean irradiance (Wm-2) Mid-month June

  13. Insolation (Wm-2) Deviation from present day value 115 kyr BP 125 kyr BP

  14. 10kyrBP departure from the last 400kyr average of insolation

  15. ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTION • MATHEMATICS OF INSOLATION • MODELLING THE PAST • MODELLING THE FUTURE • MAN’S IMPACTS ON CLIMATE/ • ASTRONOMICAL TIME SCALE

  16. Bertrand et al.,2002

  17. ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTION • MATHEMATICS OF INSOLATION • MODELLING THE PAST • MODELLING THE FUTURE • MAN’S IMPACTS ON CLIMATE/ • ASTRONOMICAL TIME SCALE

  18. The EXCEPTIONAL astronomical forcing over the next 50 kyr

  19. 14 kyrBP 0.0167 • | ~80kyr SS Aphelion •  SS Perihelion 9 kyrBP | • 23°4 } High insolation Lat. MAX NH in summer } D lat in summer D season in high lat NH e large SS Perihelion (v=270°; e sin v min) MAX

  20. 105 Wm-2 11 kyr BP 25 Wm-2 9 kyr AP

  21. 24h mean irradiance (Wm-2) Mid-month June

  22. STAGE 11 / STAGE 1 and its Future

  23. Orbital parameters : an analogue for the future

  24. MIS11 : an analogue for the future

  25. MIS11 : an analogue for the future Ref : Petit et al., 1999

  26. MIS11 : an analogue for the future CO2 = Vostok

  27. MIS11 : other CO2 scenarios Stage 11 is replaced by stage 9 or stage 5 Stage 11 is made older by 10 kyr or by 20 kyr

  28. ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTION • MATHEMATICS OF INSOLATION • MODELLING THE PAST • MODELLING THE FUTURE • MAN’S IMPACTS ON CLIMATE/ • ASTRONOMICAL TIME SCALE

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