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Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy

Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy. Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012. Agenda. Introduction and objectives Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals Target setting for Integrated Growth Target setting for Smart Growth Target setting for Sustainable Growth

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Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy

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  1. Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3rd 2012

  2. Agenda • Introduction and objectives • Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals • Target setting for Integrated Growth • Target setting for Smart Growth • Target setting for Sustainable Growth • Target setting for Inclusive Growth • Target setting for Governance for Growth

  3. Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference: • Integrated growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages; • Smart growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs • Sustainable growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development; • Inclusive growth – skills development, employment creation & labour market participation by all • Governance for growth – improve capacity of public administrations to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial

  4. The proposed process Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2012 SEE Min Vision adopted SEE IC Targets discussed First draft targets Second draft targets 1st Task Force Meeting Written procedure & third draft 2nd Task Force Meeting SEE IC Final draft targets SEE Min Targets adopted

  5. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

  6. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

  7. Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU Source: World Bank data used for 2000-2009.Data submitted by SEE economies for 2010 only. Eurostat data used for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia due to discrepancy between national and Eurostat sources. Averages weighted by population. Data labels show the average for 2010 No data submitted for Kosovo* and weights were adjusted accordingly. * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

  8. Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU

  9. Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services Source: SEE economies provided data for 2010 baseline. World Bank data used for 2000-2009. Data not provided by Kosovo*. Montenegro only provided baseline 2010. No data for Serbia was available for 2000 to 2006 so the economy is not included in the sum for SEE for these years.

  10. Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services

  11. Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit Source: World Bank data for 2000-2009. SEE economies for 2010 baseline. Averages weighted by GDP PPP based on Eurostat 2010 data Kosovo* did not submit data for 2010 and data only available from 2000 to 2005 so the economy is not included in the average. Weights were adjusted accordingly.

  12. Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit

  13. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

  14. Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services) Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economies for 2010 baseline. Years: 2004 and 2009 For 2004, the exchange rate used was 1.324$=1€ No data submitted for Kosovo* so the economy is not included in the SEE sum.

  15. Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)

  16. Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows Source: SEE economies for 2010 baseline. World Bank data for 2000-2009. Kosovo* did not submit data. No data for Kosovo* available for 2000 to 2003 so the economy is not included in the SEE sum for these years. No data for Montenegro was available for 2000 to 2006 so the economy is not included in the SEE sum.

  17. Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows

  18. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

  19. Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed Source: SEE economies provided data for the 2010 baseline in euros. Data from 2000-2010 World Bank. Averages weighted by population No data submitted by Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted accordingly. The 2020 target is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline number by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies.

  20. Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed

  21. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

  22. Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Enterprise Creation

  23. Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita Source: World Bank No data for Kosovo* and Montenegro were available so the economies are not included in the SEE sum. The 2020 target was computed by multiplying the 2010 baseline with the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies.

  24. Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita

  25. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

  26. Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate Source: SEE economies provided baseline data for 2010. World Bank data used for 2001 – 2009. Averages weighted by population based on World Bank 2010 population data. The regional average includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and the FYR Macedonia for all years as well as Serbia for 2005 to 2010. Weights are adjusted accordingly. Kosovo* did not provide data.

  27. Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate

  28. Inclusive Growth: Increase Rate of Population with Tertiary Education

  29. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

  30. Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness Source: World Bank Year: 2010 The average is a simple average of the economies’ scores.

  31. Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness

  32. Thank you for your attention

  33. Annex

  34. Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services

  35. Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows

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