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Goal of the Lecture: Understand how to properly value a potential corporate investment.

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## Goal of the Lecture: Understand how to properly value a potential corporate investment.

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**Goal of the Lecture:**Understand how to properly value a potential corporate investment.**Basic Capital Budgeting**I. Profit Evaluation of Investment Projects II. Five Steps a. Project Identification b. Estimate of Cash Flows c. Determine Risk and Discount Rate (CAPM) d. Formulate Selection Criteria e. Control and Post Completion Audit III. Types of Projects a. Expansion b. Replacement c. Regulatory (Government Required) IV. Types of Decision Scenarios a. Screen for All Acceptable Projects b. Mutually Exclusive c. Capital Rationing**ACCEPT-REJECT CRITERIA - A PROJECT SHOULD ENHANCE SHARE**VALUE • V. Project Selection Criteria - Alternate Methods • Payback Method • Net Present Value (NPV) • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • ILLUSTRATIVE PROBLEM: • Suppose firm ABC has a share price of $10. The firm may invest $500,000 in a machine that costs $100,000 each year in operating expenses for its 10 year life. The machine produces a product that it sells for $200,000 each year. Should the investment be made if k = 10%? What should be the price of the shares once the new project is accepted if there are 100,000 shares? • PV of Annual Profits = PV of Annual Revenue - Cost • PV = ($200,000 - $100,000) • = [=PV(0.10, 10, -100000, 0)] = $614,500 • But the machine costs $500,000 so net profit = $114,500 • Share Price = $10 + ($114,500) / (100,000 shares) = 11.14 • What would you do if the machine costs $700,000?**Payback Method**“Number of years it takes a firm to recover its initial investment.” I. Payback Method - Accept project if Payback < Maximum Payback = Investment/Cash Flow Per Year (If cash flows are annuities, otherwise, find the point in time when the cash flows sum up to the investment amount) II. Example: Suppose a $1.0M project yields net operating cash flows of $150,000 per year for 10 years. What is its payback? $1,000,000/$150,000 = 6.67 Years If the Firm’s Maximum Payback is > 6.67, then Accept, Otherwise Reject Second Method - Could have added cash flows as follows: $150,000 + $150,000 + $150,000 + $150,000 + $150,000 + $150,000 + [$100,000 / $150,000] = 6.67**Firm Sets Maximum or Flexible Payback Period**Advantages: a. Simple to Calculate and Understand b. Adjust for Risk by Shortening Payback Period Disadvantages: a. Ignores Timing of Cash Flows (no discounting) and ignores Cash Flows After Payback Point |-----|-----|-----|-----| -100 70 20 30 20 |-----|-----|-----|-----| -100 30 70 20 20 |-----|-----|-----|-----| -100 100 5 5 5 b. Payback Maximum is Arbitrary**Net Present Value - NPV**“The NPV is determined by discounting cash inflows back to the present at k and then subtracting the initial investment.” I. Net Present Value (NPV) - Accept Project If NPV > 0 NPV = CF0 + Note: k is given or must be determined. Advantage: NPV gives the correct decision more often. Disadvantage: Not intuitive and hard to explain to non- finance managers. II. Example: Suppose you have a project that costs $100,000 and yields cash flows of $50,000 in each of 3 years. What is the NPV if k =5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30%? NPV= -$100,000 + [=PV(0.05, 3, -50000, 0)]= $36,750 NPV= -$100,000 + [=PV(0.10, 3, -50000, 0)]= $24,350 NPV= -$100,000 + [=PV(0.15, 3, -50000, 0)]= $11,415 NPV= -$100,000 + [=PV(0.20, 3, -50000, 0)]= $ 5,300 NPV= -$100,000 + [=PV(0.25, 3, -50000, 0)]= $ -2,400 NPV= -$100,000 + [=PV(0.30, 3, -50000, 0)]= $ -9,200**Internal Rate of Return - IRR**“The IRR Is the Rate that Causes the Net Present Value to Equal Zero: Set the Initial Investment Equal to the Present Value of the Future Cash Flows and Find k = IRR.” I. Internal Rate of Return - Accept Project If IRR > Hurdle NPV = 0 = - Initial Investment + or In. Investment = Advantages: Considers time value, like NPV. It is a rate of return; easier than NPV to explain. Disadvantage: Ignores project scale; reinvestment at IRR. Unreliable if cash flows change signs more than once. II. Example: Suppose the initial investment is $1.0M and annual cash flows are $150,000 for 10 years. Find IRR? [=Rate(10, -150000, 1000000, 0)] => IRR = 8.14% Note: If required (or hurdle) rate is 10%, we would reject this project.**IRR with Unequal Cash Flows**• The Excel function “Rate” gets you the IRR but only if the cash flows are all equal. Suppose you that you have the following cash flows, where year 0 refers to the date of the initial investment (an outflow). • YearCash Flow • 0 -65 • 1 40 • 2 30 • 3 20 • In Excel, just enter each of these numbers in separate cells, say B1, B2, B3, and B4. • Then in another cell of the spreadsheet type in [=IRR(B1:B4)], without the square brackets and you should get 20.82%. (or 21% if your cell is formatted with zero decimal places). • For more detail see page 60-61 of the text or go to Excel and select Help and search for IRR.**NPV Avoids Some of IRR Weaknesses**WEAKNESSES 1. Multiple IRRs 0 1 2 ------------------------------ CFs -80 500 -500 IRR = 25% and 400% QUESTION: How can you check whether these two IRR’s are correct? Substitute & Calculate NPV =>0 QUESTION: Suppose the hurdle rate is 10%. Should we accept the project? Instead use NPV with 10% NPV = - 80 + .500/(1.1) - .500/(1.1)2 = - 80,000 + 454,545 - 413,243 = - 38.678 => reject If we reject at 10% we should reject at higher rates like 25%.**2. Mutually exclusive investments -scale problem.**PROBLEM: Suppose you have the following investments which are mutually exclusive. Which do you choose if you use IRR? If NPV? TIME Project A Project B 0 -100 -10 1 50 5 2 50 5 3 50 5 4 50 5 [=Rate(4, -50, 100, 0)] = [=Rate(4, -5, 10, 0)] IRR = 35% for both A and B Assume k = 11% then: NPVA = -100 + [=PV(0.11, 4, -50, 0)] = 55.0 NPVB = -10 + [=PV(0.11, 4, -5, 0)]= 5.50 IRR is inferior if there are scale differences because you make more total profit from Project A.**PROBLEM: Suppose you must choose between A and B below and**the required rate is 9%. Which do you choose using IRR? NPV? : TIME A B 0 -35,000 -35,000 1 20,000 5,000 2 15,000 10,000 3 10,000 15,000 4 4,000 25,000 IRR 20% 16% NPV(5%) 9582 12357 NPV(9%) 6529 7297 NPV(15%) 2595 1066 Here IRR always chooses A because it assumes reinvestment of intermediate CFs at IRR. NPV chooses B at low interest rates and A at high interest rates. So as the k approaches the calculated IRR in value we see that they give similar results. This is because the NPV assumes intermediate CFAT's are invested at k, and IRR assumes they are invested at IRR. The NPV numbers above were computed using the Excel NPV formula. For example, the first NPV number 9582 is: 9582 = NPV(0.05, 20000, 15000, 10000, 4000) - 35000**QUESTION: Why has the project A become more attractive from**an NPV standpoint when k increases to 15%? Because you get larger cash flows earlier. At large interest rates, early cash flows become relatively more attractive**When Two Mutually Exclusive Projects Have Different Life**Spans, the Longer Project Will Have a Larger NPV, All Else Equal. • Ways to Handle Unequal Project Lives • Can use IRR • Replacement chains - assume multiple replacements • Assume long-lived asset is sold at the end of the short-lived asset’s life. • Use equivalent annual annuity NPV Equivalent Annual NPV = This method normalizes NPV for project years. It is the simplest and most effective method. Example: Either of two molding machines that makes drinking glasses requires an initial investment of $2000. Model 3SR produces short glasses and has a 5-year life. Model 3TR produces tall glasses and has a 9-year life. CFs expected from the purchase of model 3SR and 3TR are $700 and $500 per year, respectively. If k =.13 and there is no resale value, which should be chosen? NPVS = -2000 + [=PV(0.13, 5, -700, 0)] = 462 NPVT = -2000 + [=PV(0.13, 9, -500, 0)] = 566 ENPVS = 462/3.517 = 131 ENPVT = 566/5.132 = 110**Capital Rationing**“A situation in which a constraint exists on funds available such that not all positive NPV projects will be accepted.” I. Capital Rationing - Maximize the NPV Subject to Budget Profit Index = PI = Note: PI is a guide to choosing projects, it measures the NPV per dollar invested, i.e., PI = 1.5 means that you get and NPV of 1.5 per $1 invested. II. Example: Assume the following information. You have $600,000 to spend. Which should you choose? Project In. Invest. PV(CF) PI NPV 1. $300,000 $336,000 1.12 $36,000 2. $100,000 $120,000 1.20 $20,000 3. $100,000 $108,000 1.08 $ 8,000 4. $200,000 $230,000 1.15 $30,000 5. $200,000 $190,000 0.95 -$10,000 6. $300,000 $330,000 1.10 $30,000 Choose: Projects 1, 2, 4 Suppose that Project 4 costs $225,000 (PI = 1.02). Which projects to choose now? Choose: 1, 6**Options and Real Options**• 1. THE TWO BASIC OPTIONS - PUT AND CALL • A call (put) is the right to buy (sell) an asset. • Most other options are just combinations of these. • Options are “derivatives” and other derivatives may include options • The price of an option is called a “premium” because options are equivalent to insurance and the price of insurance is called a premium. • 2. For most of this lecture we will assume that the option • a. Can only be exercised at maturity (called European). An American option, which is the most common type should behave similarly because, in most cases, American options are not exercised until maturity. They are almost always worth more left unexercised so very few are exercised. If they are never exercised before expiration, there should be no difference in value between an American and European option. • b. Pays no dividends – most options aren’t dividend protected so dividends will affect price.**CALL OPTION CONTRACT**Definition: The right to purchase 100 shares of a security at a specified exercise price (Strike) during a specific period. EXAMPLE: A January 60 call on Microsoft (at 7 1/2) This means the call is good until the third Friday of January and gives the holder the right to purchase the stock from the writer at $60 / share for 100 shares. Cost is $7.50 / share x 100 shares = $750 premium or option contract price.**PUT OPTION CONTRACT**Definition: The right to sell 100 shares of a security at a specified exercise price during a specific period. EXAMPLE: A January 60 put on Microsoft (at 14 1/2) This means the put is good until the third Friday of January and gives the holder the right to sell the stock to the writer for $60 / share for 100 shares. Cost $14.25 / share x 100 shares = $1450 premium.**INTRINSIC AND TIME VALUE**• AN OPTION'S INTRINSIC VALUE IS ITS VALUE IF IT WERE EXERCISED IMMEDIATELY. • AN OPTION'S TIME VALUE IS ITS COST ABOVE ITS INTRINSIC VALUE. • Microsoft Stock Price = 53.50 at the time - October 1987 • QUESTION: Which Microsoft option has greater intrinsic value? - put • QUESTION: Which Microsoft option has greater time value? – put • a. For the Call - Time Value = 7.50 (the full premium) • Intrinsic Value = 0 (Stock price < exercise price). • b. For the Put - Time Value = $8.00 = 14. 50 - (60 - 53.50) • Intrinsic Value = (60 - 53.50) = 6.50. • QUESTION: Which option is a better deal?**REAL OPTIONS EXAMPLES**Call - option to buy another company or company's line. Call - capital expenditures on R & D and marketing. Give an option to make further investments if promising. Call - buy car at the end of the lease Call - rain check at a grocery store Put - abandonment Put - agreement to buy company but only if loan losses are less than 50 million (WCIS). Put - guarantees - government price supports - consider farmer's incentives**Related to NU’s Business**Call – Invest in the first few electric charging stations for electric cars Call or Put – weather or temperature options Call – new technology batteries Put – consumers with solar cells can sell to NU Call – consumers with solar sells have the right to buy from NU if they need power Call – carbon pollution permits Call – interruptible service – the right to turn off a businesses’ service**NET PRESENT VALUE RULE FOR PROJECT ACCEPTANCE MUST BE**ADJUSTED IF OPTIONS ARE INVOLVED. There are two types of options to consider for most projects A. The call option to delay a project to the future when the project may have a larger NPV. A project that can be delayed effectively competes with itself in the future. This call option is more valuable when a project can be delayed for a longer time (t), when a project’s (returns) are very risky (s), and when interest rates (r) are high. This could explain why it may be rational to delay a positive NPV project. Managers have often been criticized by governments for not investing in plant and equipment during recessions. Managers are not being indecisive or too risk-averse but simply evaluating projects based upon their option values which may be high during recessions. The basic idea is that if you undertake a project now, you can’t undertake it in the future when it may have a higher NPV. The more likely a project could have a higher NPV in the future, the larger its option’s time value. If the project is accepted, its time value is lost.**Thus, time value must be considered in the project selection**criteria. Thus instead of NPVproject > 0 we use NPVproject > time value of the option to delay > 0 Hence we should accept a project only when it has a relatively large NPV. A large NPV in options terms means that the market value or present value of the project’s cash flows greatly exceeds its exercise price (cost of the project). In other words - when its option is sufficiently “in the money” i.e., it has much intrinsic value.**B. When a project’s acceptance allows one to undertake**additional projects in the future then we must make another adjustment to the NPV criteria above. NPVproject + Value of option on extended projects > time value of option to delay For example, if we delay building a new pentium chip-making plant, it may be cheaper in the future, all else equal. However, if not building the plant means we may forfeit the opportunity to build the next generation chip, then this extra option must be considered. Example: You have a project that requires a $20 million investment. You expect the project to provide future cash flows with present value of $22 million. If the option to delay the project for two years is worth $9.5 million, should you accept the project now or wait? What if the project gives you the option to make future investments where this option is worth $8 million? Assume that the investment remains $20 million whenever it is made and the present value of future cash flows remains $22 million. Also assume that if you delay then you lose the option to make future investments.**Time value of the option to delay = 9.5 - (22 - 20) = 7.5**Since NPV = (22 -20) = 2 < 7.5 then wait. If the project gives us the option to make future investments but only if we invest now, and this option is worth 8 then we would have NPV + Option on Future Project = 2 + 8 = 10 > 7.5 - so now we would go ahead with the project.