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Markets, Policy, and Outlook

Markets, Policy, and Outlook. Iowa Corn Growers Coralville, Iowa Sept. 7, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Prices. Crop Conditions.

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Markets, Policy, and Outlook

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  1. Markets, Policy, and Outlook Iowa Corn Growers Coralville, Iowa Sept. 7, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Prices

  5. Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Corn Harvested Acre Adjustments

  7. Projected Corn Yields

  8. Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  9. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  10. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  12. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  14. Corn Exports Source: USDA-FAS

  15. Soy Exports Source: USDA-FAS

  16. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  18. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  19. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE-EIA

  20. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  21. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

  22. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

  23. Prices

  24. Current Corn Futures 7.44 6.24 5.64 Source: CME Group, 9/6/2012

  25. Current Soybean Futures 16.23 13.17 12.44 Source: CME Group, 9/6/2012

  26. Early Prices for 2013 Crops

  27. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  28. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  29. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  30. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture • South America gets 1st chance to respond to drought pricing • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • Drought is pulling supply down • But high prices are diminishing demand • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a key for crop prices • US job recovery, European financial concerns, China? • 2012/13: USDA: Corn $8.20; Soy $16.00 Futures (as of 9/6/12): Corn $7.44; Soy $16.23 • 2013/14: Futures Corn $6.24; Soy $13.17 • 2014/15: Futures Corn $5.64; Soy $12.44

  31. 2013 Crop Cost Estimates $832 165 $5.04 $778 180 $4.32 $567 50 $11.34 Source: ISU Extension Economics, July 2012

  32. Corn Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  33. Soybean Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  34. Land Allocation Source: FAPRI-MO

  35. U.S. Per-Capita Meat Consumption Source: FAPRI-MO

  36. U.S. Pork Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  37. U.S. Beef Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  38. Food Price Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  39. Senate Proposal, 2013-2017 $ per acre Source: FAPRI-MO

  40. House Proposal, 2013-2017 $ per acre Source: FAPRI-MO

  41. Planted Acres, 2013-2017 Million acres Source: FAPRI-MO

  42. Prices, 2013-2017 Source: FAPRI-MO

  43. Gov. Expenditures, 2013-2017 $ million Source: FAPRI-MO

  44. Change in Expenditures, 2013-2017 Source: FAPRI-MO

  45. Payments as a Share of Receipts Source: FAPRI-MO

  46. Source: Babcock, ISU

  47. Iowa Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  48. Land Value & Cash Rental Rate Trends Source: ISU Extension Economics

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