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Promising Opportunities Amid Rising Hong Kong Developer Stocks: A Cautious Approach

The recent surge in Hong Kong developer stocks suggests a potential profit-taking moment or a chance to short as euphoria builds. Factors such as declining US interest rates and supportive government measures have propelled companies like Sun Hung Kai and Henderson Land towards former high prices. However, the market seems unaware of the lengthy transitional phase these developers face, moving from high-margin, low-volume operations in land-scarce Hong Kong to lower-margin, high-volume strategies in land-abundant China. This structural shift entails a 5-10 year adjustment period, marking a mispricing risk.

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Promising Opportunities Amid Rising Hong Kong Developer Stocks: A Cautious Approach

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  1. Sector Idea: Short Hong Kong Developers ‘The recent rise, bordering on euphoria, in Hong Kong developer stocks is setting up a very promising opportunity to take profits or to short. The seductive twin arguments of falling US interest rates and more friendly government policies have seen developers like Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land approach their former price highs - long before we have had market clearing and let all the air out of the near 30 year-old asset bubble The market has yet to recognise that Hong Kong developers are in the midst of a very painful and very lengthy transition. They are still seen purely as cyclical animals as opposed to beasts whose fundamental nature must change Their business has to change from having high margins and low volumes in land-scarce Hong Kong to having lower margins and high volumes in land-plentiful China. This is at least a 5-10 year process during which overpriced landbanks in Hong Kong have to be run down before the benefits of expansion from China drive the full recovery. This is a structural issue that the market has ignored and hence mispriced.’ Sell -28.9% -34.7% 8 March Hong Kong Developers

  2. Macro Idea: Asian Currencies Broad Dollar Index • ‘The recent weakness of Asian currencies, with everything in thrall to the strong US dollar, strikes us as a misconception about what lies ahead over the rest of 2001’ • ‘Don't assume strong US dollar is permanent’ • ‘US imbalances unlikely to be ignored forever’ • ‘Only 20-30% US dollar fall can rebalance trade’ • ‘China could surprise: more flexibility, appreciation’ Dollar Weakness Ahead 19 April Asian Currencies

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