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Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee. March 16, 2010. Introductions Law changes SB 1007 (2010) AIP April 2010 Forecast Effects Preliminary forecast Comparison of effects Roundtable Revocations, those in prison without direct sentence Community corrections
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Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee March 16, 2010
Introductions • Law changes • SB 1007 (2010) • AIP • April 2010 Forecast • Effects • Preliminary forecast • Comparison of effects • Roundtable • Revocations, those in prison without direct sentence • Community corrections • Other forecast considerations
M57 / HB 3508 • M57 (2008) – RPO, Drug Prior, Drug Quantity • HB 3508 (2009) – Partial Suspension and 30% ET • SB 1007 (2010) – Restrict/Suspend 30% ET • Crime Commit Dates • March 2010 to July 2011 – No 30% ET • July 2011 to January 2013 – Restricted 30% ET • January 2013 to ….. – 30% ET per HB 3508 • Restrictions: Person Felony, Stipulate Others: …firearm, coercion, corpse, LE animal, treason(!) • Past 5 years
Popular reasons to go to prison?…survey says… (annual avg. past 4 yrs)
AIP • February Meeting Comments: • AIP considerations in plea process lessened due to • 20% max reduction • One year minimum? (TS, AIP, TL) • Program demand lessened • Will programs be full? • Will time cuts change?
Preliminary Forecast Direction • Graph: • Base • Base + New ET • Base + New ET + M57 RPO • Base + New ET + M57 RPO + M57 Drug Prior • Base + New ET +M57 RPO + M57 Drug Prior + M57 Drug Quantity • Base + New ET + M57 RPO • Remember: Significant potential for error.
Prelim Forecast with All Effects …with M57 Drug Quantity
Comparison Graphs Forecast with
Earned Time Comparison • Graphs showing Pre-SB1007 to Post-SB1007 effects
Comparison to Fiscal • Connect to fiscal except with specific reason to deviate.
Roundtable • Revocations, those in prison without direct sentence • Community corrections • Other forecast considerations
Preliminary ImpactsAnnual Numbers • M57 RPO: 200 extra, 2-3 months longer • From 1325 at 24.1 months • To 1525 at 26.8 months • M57 Drug Prior: +110 at 20.4 months • M57 Drug Quantity: • About 70 going from 22 to 44 months
Model Error: Decay vs. Intake DECAY DOMINATES INTAKE DOMINATES
Inmate Forecast Summary • Law changes: • Less impact than expected • “Water under the bridge” until… • Baseline forecast assumes very little change. • Revisit admission assumptions. • Separating baseline change from law change. • Forecast to 2013 driven largely by decay side. • After 2013, law changes for intakes
Forecast Issues • Forecast especially difficult • complex changes to system • changes continue through 2013 • Difficult to separate baseline change from law change. • Additional law change expected. • Expect higher variance, wider confidence range.
Community Corrections • M57 Effects • M57 RPO: expected increase vs. prior • Drugs with Prior: no downward departure • HB 3508 Inactive Probation – 9,500 cases • Forecast does not distinguish: active/inactive • Need DOC input on whether to forecast • Other Issues?
Prison Admissions • All admissions less OYA & “administrative” • Graphs: Past 10 years • Dec 1999 to Nov 2009 • Tables • Early 2000’s, Mid 2000’s, Late 2000’s • Latter 2008, latter 2009 (June through Nov.)
