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GHG metrics in the WGIII contribution to the AR5 Bonn, 03 April 2012 Jan Minx, Steffen Brunner & Ottmar Edenhofer. johnthescone. 2. Assessment Approach. IPCC principles a comprehensive and scientifically sound review of the relevant literature;

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  1. GHG metrics in the WGIII contribution to the AR5Bonn, 03 April 2012Jan Minx, Steffen Brunner & Ottmar Edenhofer johnthescone

  2. 2 Assessment Approach • IPCC principles • a comprehensive and scientifically sound review of the relevant literature; • the identification of disparate views for which there is significant scientific or technical support; and • a policy-neutral presentation of the scientific content in a manner relevant to policymakers.

  3. 3 Assessment approach • Challengesfor WGIII assessment: • Noscientificresolutionofvaluedissent • Impossibletodistinguishfactsandvaluesneatly • High potentially fundamental uncertaintiesassociatedwithlong-term policychoices • Implicationsfor WGIII assessment: • Communication ofuncertaintiesboth in quantitative and qualitative dimensions • Transparencyofcontestedvalue-laden assumptionsandimplicitvaluejudgments

  4. 4 Division of labour at the science-policy interface IPCC andotherscientificassessments Adapted from: Edenhofer and Kowarsch, 2012

  5. 5 The WGIII Assessment: Exploring the Solution Space – a mapping exercise Goal A Goal C Goal B http://www.trail.ch/gallery/albums/trail/graubunden/fuorcla-surlej/corvatsch-fuorcla-surlej-val-roseg-09_09_2006-img_2598.jpg Start

  6. Part I Introduction Part II Framing Issues Part III Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change Part IV Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance 6 The Four Parts of the AR5 WG III Outline

  7. 7 The Working Group III Assessment as a Cartography Exercise Part I Introduction The legend to the map: Explain concepts and methods of assessment Part II Framing Issues Part III Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change The map: Map out feasible mitigation option Assess trade-offs Part IV Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance Navigation tools: Assess policy instruments, institutional arrangements and finance options

  8. 8 AR5 WG III Outline I: Introduction 1. Introductory Chapter 2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies 3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods 4. Sustainable Development and Equity II: Framing Issues NodedicatedchapterorSection on metrics in thePlenaryapproved Working Group III outlineofthe AR5 5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation 6. Assessing Transformation Pathways 7. Energy Systems 8. Transport 9. Buildings 10. Industry 11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning III: Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change 13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments 14. Regional Development and Cooperation 15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions 16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues IV: Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance

  9. 9 Where will metrics be covered? I: Introduction 1. Introductory Chapter 2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies 3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods 4. Sustainable Development and Equity II: Framing Issues 5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation 6. Assessing Transformation Pathways 7. Energy Systems 8. Transport 9. Buildings 10. Industry 11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning III: Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change 13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments 14. Regional Development and Cooperation 15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions 16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues IV: Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance

  10. 10 Assessment of metrics in context of WGIII contribution to AR5 • Be explicit about how metrics are used • Conceputal clarification of alternative emission metrics and their relationships – including both physical and more comprehensive economic metrics • Communicate underlying uncertainties and value judgments • Establish relationship alternative emission metrics to purpose of analysis • Quantiative comparisons and/or assessment of numerical values for alternative metrics as appropriate

  11. Thank you for your attention!

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