Voters and Voter Behavior

1. Voters and Voter Behavior Unit 2 – Chap. 13

2. Political Participation • Refers to the ways in which Americans get involved in politics • We do very poorly • Voter turnout very bad • Voter in presidential elections is the most common form of political participation • Federal laws and the Constitution have eliminated restrictions on the right to vote and expanded the electorate • States can’t prevent a person from voting

3. Long-Term Trends • Federal law and Constitutional Amendments have eliminated restrictions on the right to vote, thus dramatically expanding the electorate • Federal laws and Constitutional Amendments have significantly reduced the power of the individual states over a citizen’s right to vote Initially on white male property owners could vote – about 1 in 15 males

4. Who doesn’t get to vote? Why vote? People under 18 Convicted felons (10 states) Clinically insane Non-citizens Civic duty – to be a good citizen In 2012 nearly 90 million people did not vote! Who? young, uneducated, unmarried, minority

5. Voting Eligibility • Elimination of property requirements (1830) • Elimination of racial discrimination in 15th Amendment (1870) “race, color, or previous condition of servitude”States used literary tests, poll taxes, and grandfather clauses to systematically disenfranchise African-Americans • Elimination of sexual discrimination in 19th Amendment (1920)removed voting restrictions based on gender • Washington D.C. in 23th Amendment (1961)gave the people of Washington D.C. the vote • Elimination of poll taxes in 24th Amendment (1964)outlawed “poll tax” or any “tax” as a qualification for voting

6. Elimination of literacy tests in Voting Rights Act of 1965 a. prohibited any government from using a procedure to prevent a person from votingabolished the use of literary testsauthorized federal registrars to protect African Americans’ right to vote in Southern states with a history of discrimination • Reduction of voting age to 18 in 26th Amendment (1971)lowered the voting age to 18 – primarily because of the Vietnam War • Elimination of several state registration laws in Voting Rights Act (1993)(Motor Voter Act – tied to Motor Registration)The law expanded voting rights by requiring state governments to offer voter registration opportunities to any eligible person who applies for or renews a driver's license or public assistance, requiring states to register applicants that use a federal voter registration form to apply, and prohibiting states from removing registered voters from the voter rolls unless certain criteria are met.

7. Factors That Influence Voter Turnout • Education: The more education – the more likely to vote. Less education – the less likely to vote.As level education increases the higher percentage for Republicans (2008 was an exception) • Income: People with more income are more likely to vote. Higher incomes tend to vote Republican • Age: Older people are more likely to vote than younger people. (Voter turnout does decrease over 70, while 18 to 24 is slowly increasing)

8. Gender: Women vote at a high percentage then men (54% of all voters). Women generally favor the Democratic Party. This is the gender gap • Religion: Jews and Catholics are more likely to vote than Protestants. Majority of Jews and Catholics vote Democrat • Race: Whites have a higher turnout than minority groups. When you remove income and education – black vote at a higher rate. African Americans tend to support the more liberal candidates • Cross-pressure: Voters belong to more than one group. Cross-pressure reduces turnout

9. Factors that Decrease Voter Turnout • Voter registration: a) With the exception of North Dakota, all states have voter registration laws requiring eligible voters to put their name on an electoral roll before voting (ND is small and based on precinct identification) b) Voter registration has limited fraud c) Motor Voter Act made it easier for voters to register while applying for or renewing a driver’s license

10. Factors that Decrease Voter Turnout • Political efficacy: • The belief that voting can make a difference • Citizens have a low level of political efficacy and most believe their vote won’t make a difference

11. Factors that Decrease Voter Turnout • Frequent elections: • America’s federal system produces more elections than any modern democracy • The large number of elections reduces turnout and make it difficult for citizens to be informed • Republicans tend to want tougher registration (photo ids) while Democrats want to make it easier

12. Factors that Decrease Voter Turnout • Weekday, nonholiday voting: • Many western democracies hold elections on weekend or national holidays • Most elections in the United States are held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November making it difficult for people to leave work to vote

13. Types of Elections Primary Election in which voters decide which of the candidates within a party will represent the party in the general election. • Closed primary: voter can only vote for nominee if they are registered as party member i) prevents crossover voting II) independents cannot participate • open primary – voter does not have to belong to a party to vote for that party’s nomineecrossover voting – allows a voter from one party to vote for the other party’s nominee i) to pick the weakest candidate for the general election • Blanket primary: a primary in which voters can cast votes back and forth between candidates from any party.

14. Conventional Political Participation • Voting (most important and greatest participation) • Following and discussing politics • Campaign activities – contributing money • Contacting public officials – letters, e-mails, phone calls • Group activities (political parties, interest groups, etc.)

15. Unconventional Political Participation • Boycotts • Protests • Picketing • Rioting and violence – not happy with the process or no faith in the system (small minority)

16. Patterns in Voter Turnout Turnout is important in a winner-takes-all system – In 2000, George W. Bush won Florida by 537 votes! Turnout: the proportion of the voting-age public that votes • 40% of the eligible adult population votes • 25% are occasional voters • 35% rarely vote

17. Political Identification by Group

18. Young People and Issues- 2016

20. Hispanic voters are becoming increasingly important.- 2008 • Between 2000 and 2004, Hispanics accounted for half of the growth in the U.S. population. • Out of every 100 Hispanics, 40 were voting age citizens, 23 were likely to be registered and only 18 were likely to vote. • But on Super Tuesday in California 2008, Hispanics were 30% of the Democratic primary electorate, up from about 17% four years ago

21. State sizes are determined by the number of electoral votes.

25. Voter Turnout • 50%+ participation in presidential elections • 33% for high state offices • 33% + for congressional midterm elections • 20% for lower state and all local elections • 38% votes every two years in elections (core electorate) • 2014 – 38%

26. Reasons to Vote for aParticular Candidate • Party Affiliation • Policy Vision • Interest in a particular issue • Personal Appeal

27. Can states deter you from voting? 2 states allow felons to vote from jail 2 states require first time voters to show ID 3 states require a photo ID 18 states require some form of ID 12 states require registration at least 30 days prior to the election Is this a problem?

28. October Surprise A news event that is deliberately timed (or created) to influence the outcome of an election Usually released at the end of October to influence prospective voters and guarantee greatest impact 2000 Gore vs Bush – days before the election a democratic candidate for governor of Maine confirmed a report that George W. bush had been arrested for drunk driving in Maine in 1976 2008 Obama vs. McCain – Associated Press revealed that a half-aunt of Barack Obama was living in Boston as an illegal immigrant after being denied asylum in 2004

29. Would you vote? 2008

30. Efforts to Improve Voter Turnout • Easier Registration and Absentee Voting • Make Election Day a Holiday • Strengthen Parties • Other suggestions • Holding fewer elections • Proportional representation system for congressional elections • Saturday or Sunday election day • Making voting mandatory • Tax credits for voting • Election weeks rather than election days • Internet voting – FRAUD CONCERNS

31. The Party Conventions • Out-of-power party holds its convention first, usually in late July/August, followed in August/Sept by party holding the presidency • Conventions were decision-making body in the 19th century • Today the convention is fundamentally different • Nominations settled well in advance of the convention because of primaries

32. Primary or Caucus • There are two ways to elect the party nominee for president • They are held in each state and territories (but these guys don’t get to vote in the election) • It is not in the Constitution and was created over time by the parties • They are held between January and June before the November election • Each party determines how many delegates are assigned to each state

34. Primaries Caucuses Caucus participants more informed; more interactive and informative Unfair scheduling affects outcomes Frontloading (being first in the primary calendar) gives some primary states an advantage Frontloading is the tendency to choose an early date on the primary schedule • More democratic • More representative • A rigorous test for the candidate

35. Primary voting can bring: • Crossover voting: participation in the primary of a party with which the voter is not affiliated • Raiding: An organized attempt by voters of one party to influence the primary results of the other party • Runoff primary: a second primary election between the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes in the first primary

36. The Primaries and those Pesky Delegates (and Superdelegates) • Each party holds a primary or a caucus in each state • Then, the political elite from each party are selected as pledged delegates • These delegates must vote as their state voted on first ballot • Both parties have unpledged delegates as well who are not obligated to vote with state delegates Democrats • There are currently 4,049 total delegates to the Democratic National Convention, including 3,253 pledged delegates and 796 unpledged or superdelegates. • The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,025. Republicans • There are currently 2,380 total delegates to the Republican National Convention, including 1,917 pledged delegates and 463 unpledged delegates. • The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 1,191.

37. The Basic Structure of American Political Parties • Unpledged (called Superdelegates in the Democratic Party) do not have to indicate a candidate preference and do not have to compete for their position. • These are typically members of the national committee, elected officials like senators or governors, or party leaders

38. The Constitutional Basis for Presidential Elections • The Constitution’s Framers doubted the public’s ability to directly elect its leaders • Article II: Electors from each state vote directly for president • 1804: The 12th Amendment changed the electoral process to a presidential/vice-presidential ticket Verifying the Electoral College vote in the House of Representatives, 1913

39. The Presidential Election Process • The public votes for president in November every four years • The members of the Electoral College cast the official votes for president the next month, in December • President is sworn in at noon on Jan. 20 the following year

40. The Presidential Election Process • Each state has a designated number of electors • In most states, electoral votes are awarded on a “winner take all” basis; Nebraska and Maine use proportional distribution • Out of 538 electoral votes, candidates need 270 to win election Electoral College votes by state

41. What are electoral votes? • Each state gets as many electors as members of Congress (538 total) • These electors are encouraged to represent the vote of their state using a winner-take-all system. (If CA votes for GOP, all 55 electors vote GOP, even if the total popular vote was 51%-49%) • Magic number: 270 electoral votes are needed to become president. • Representatives of each state who cast the final ballots that actually elect a president • District of Columbia is given 3 electoral votes (23rd Amendment) • Vote of ElectorsFirst Monday after first Wednesday in DecemberCounted before joint session of Congress in January by the Vice President. • Founding Fathers wanted a way to prevent the people from outright electing the president...they were afraid of Joe Six Pack!

42. The Electoral College in the 19th Century • 12th Amendment (1804) • Attempt to remedy the confusion between the selection of vice presidents and presidents that emerged in the election of 1800 • Provided for separate elections for each office, with each elector having only one vote to cast for each • In event of a tie, the election still went to the House • Top three candidates go to House • Each state House delegation casts one vote

43. The Electoral College in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries • Electoral college crises • At times a candidate can win the Electoral College vote without having won the popular vote • Reapportionment matters • Representation of states in the Electoral College is altered every ten years to reflect population shifts • Party in power can work to earn more districts as new lines are drawn.

44. Flaws in the system • Winner of popular vote doesn’t always become president (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) • Nothing requires electors to follow the votes of their states. • If no one wins majority of elector votes, H of R decides election. 4. Big “swing” states (OH, FL) become key to an election, candidates spend most time/$ there.

45. Electoral College 2008 Obama 69,456,897 365 McCain 59,534,814 173

48. Red State/Blue State? No. Blue City, Red Country RED and BLUE states Key Swing States

49. Congressional Elections • Very different from presidential elections • Lesser known candidates, more difficulty getting media attention • Incumbency Advantage (over 90% advantage) • Better known, highly visible in the district • Representatives can hire 18 permanent and 4 non-permanent aides • Fundraising is easier • Can use office resources (franking privilege, staff, travel, etc.) • Can cite work already done in Washington • Incumbency often scares of good challengers

50. Congressional Elections • Held in November in even-numbered years. • An off-year election is the congressional election held between presidential elections. The president’s party usually loses seats.