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Sophia Nicolov

Extinction, Success Stories & Shifting Baselines: The 1999- 2000 Eastern North Pacific Gray Whale ( Eschrichtius robustus ) Unusual Mortality Event. Sophia Nicolov. Travelling north gray whales pass: - Baja California (Mexico) - California - Oregon - Washington - Vancouver Island

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Sophia Nicolov

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  1. Extinction, Success Stories & Shifting Baselines:The 1999-2000 Eastern North Pacific Gray Whale (Eschrichtiusrobustus) Unusual Mortality Event Sophia Nicolov

  2. Travelling north gray whales pass: - Baja California (Mexico) - California - Oregon - Washington - Vancouver Island (Canada) - Alaska image by NASA's Goddard Space Center

  3. Total Gray Whale Stranding Reports by Region 1995-2001

  4. Unusual Mortality Event: ‘a stranding that is unexpected; involves a significant die-off of any marine mammal population; and demands immediate response’ Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972

  5. Map of the three lagoons where gray whales go to give birth, nurse their young and mate In Baja California, Mexico

  6. For a Coming Extinction W.S. Merwin The bewilderment will diminish like an echo Winding along your inner mountains Unheard by us And find its way out Leaving behind it the future Dead And ours When you will not see again The whale calves trying the light Consider what you will find in the black garden And its court The sea cows the Great Auks the gorillas The irreplaceable hosts ranged countless And fore-ordaining as stars Our sacrifices Join your word to theirs Tell him That it is we who are important Gray whale Now that we are sending you to The End That great god Tell him That we who follow you invented forgiveness And forgive nothing I write as though you could understand And I could say it One must always pretend something Among the dying When you have left the seas nodding on their stalks Empty of you Tell him that we were made On another day

  7. When you will not see again The whale calves trying the light Consider what you will find in the black garden And its court The sea cows the Great Auks the gorillas The irreplaceable hosts ranged countless

  8. Ballena gris / Gray Whale Homero Aridjis Ballena gris, cuando no quede de timásque la imagen de un cuerpooscuroqucibaporlasaguas del paraiso de los animales; cuando no hayamemoria de tupaso nileyendaqueregistretuvida, porque no hay mar dondequepatumuerte, quieroponersobretutumba de agua estascuantaspalabras: “Ballena gris, danos la dirección de otrodestino” Gray whale, once there is no more left of you than an image of the dark shape that moved on the waters in animal paradise, once there is no memory, no legend to log your life and its passage because there is no sea where your death will fit I want to set these few words on your watery grave: "Gray whale, show us the way to another fate"

  9. ‘as few whales were examined thoroughly, no evidence is available for the actual cause of death of most of the animals involved in this event.’ F.M.D. Gulland, et al., 'Eastern North Pacific Gray Whale (Eschrichtiusrobustus) Unusual Mortality Event', NOAA Technical Memorandum (2005)

  10. Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) Values 1955-2017 El Niño and La Niña are terms given to the climatic events concentrated in the central and east Pacific. They are the two phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), recurring as part of a natural cycle every few years. El Niño is the warming of sea surface temperature. La Niña is the term for a phase of cooler sea surface temperatures. 1997-1998 El Niño Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) 1998-2000 La Niña Year Red = warm conditions and blue = cool conditions of the Equatorial Pacific > +2 associated with very strong events

  11. Sea surface temperature anomaly during the very strong El Niño in December 1997 Sea surface temperature anomaly during the moderate-to-strong La Niña in December 1999 Source: NOAA

  12. Genetic diversity = too high for a pre-whaling population of 26,500 Pre-whaling abundance closer to 78,500 and 117,700 (av. 96,000)

  13. ‘It is impossible to describe either the number of whales with which we were surrounded, or their familiarity’ • Jean François de la Pérouse1786 • ‘vast numbers’ • Charles Scammon 1869 • ‘immense’ and ‘astonishing’ • John A. Veatch 1869

  14. Charles Scammon The Marine Mammals of the North-western Coast of North America (1874) Engraving of gray whale by Charles Scammon ‘collected at the most remote extremities of the lagoons, and huddled together so thickly that it was difficult for a boat to cross the waters without coming into contact with them’

  15. Shifting Baseline Syndrome ‘The result obviously is a gradual shift of the baseline, a gradual accommodation of the creeping disappearance’ Daniel Pauly, ‘Anecdotes and the Shifting Baseline Syndrome of Fisheries’ (1995)

  16. Any questions? @SophiaNicolov/ ensn@leeds.ac.uk

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