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Climate change

Climate change. NASC. Gyan Laxmi Shrestha /Tara Prasad Kharel. Shrawan2-3 Annapurna / kantipur. Face the Music : Climate Change. Your Views in Climate Change. What is climate change? Why and where is it ? Who are affected more?. Physical processes regulating climate.

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Climate change

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  1. Climate change NASC GyanLaxmiShrestha /Tara Prasad Kharel

  2. Shrawan2-3 Annapurna /kantipur

  3. Face the Music : Climate Change

  4. Your Views in Climate Change • What is climate change? • Why and where is it ? • Who are affected more?

  5. Physical processes regulating climate Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report

  6. Change in climate systems • Causes of Change in climate Systems: • within its own internal (energy) dynamics • due to changes in external factors • External forcing includes: • volcanic eruptions • variability in the sun’s radiative output • changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases

  7. Observed Global effect • Global average sea level rose at an average rate of about 3.1 (2.4 to 3.8)mm per year in a decade. • Annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 (2.1 to 3.3)% per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 (5.0 to 9.8)% per decade. • Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have declined in both hemispheres.

  8. TshoRolpa Glacier

  9. Climate Change Situation in Nepal • Different Studies indicated an increase in temperature at an annual rate of 0.06ºC • Over the last 100 years, the warming in the Himalayas has been much greater than the global average of 0.74 ºC (Du et al. 2004; IPCC 2007). • Glaciers in the Himalayas of Nepal are retreating at a faster rate than before( 30-60 meter between 1970-1989) and thinning of the glacier surface is by 12 meter between 1978-1989 (Nakawo et al., 1997; Ageta et al., 2001; Bajracharya et al., 2007).

  10. A case story of Dandagaon VDC • “This village is not having rain on appropriate time nor do we have any irrigation facility. Landslide swept away our land two years back which left us without crops.” – Respondent speaking during FGD adding, (with a big laughter) “cha mahinakocherakhane cha mahinakhojerakhane” i.e. “our own products is available for six months and we search for six months.”Some ten years back our production was good but now it has been reduced by fifty percent.

  11. There was no maize production in the year 2064 due to the hailstones. It occurred when our maize had just started flowering. It destroyed all of our maize including fruits. We even lost seeds for next year. I lost my land due to landslide occurred during the year 2065. It took away my livestock. See that tree (points towards the tree behind his house) it saved me from the rocks brought by the slide which rolled down towards my house. I had a three weeks calf which could not survive though I tried to save its life. It survived only for two days after the landslide. Look at those big rocks (pointing at the rocks on his land) it has turned my cultivable land of no use. (Katunje

  12. Destruction due to hailstones There was no maize production in this year due to the hailstones. It occurred when our maize had just started flowering. It destroyed all of our maize including fruits. We even lost seeds for next year. A pitiful story of a respondent due to landslide I lost my land due to landslide. It took away my livestock. See that tree (points towards the tree behind his house) it saved me from the rocks brought by the slide which rolled down towards my house. I had a three weeks calf which could not survive though I tried to save its life. It survived only for two days after the landslide. Look at those big rocks (pointing at the rocks on his land) it has turned my cultivable land of no use.

  13. “We weren't expecting the flood, because it wasn't the monsoon season yet”, explained Hukum Singh Gurung, local from Sardikhola. He further added,”12 people were killed who were engaged to hotel business in the place while the amount declared by the government as relief package has not been equally distributed among the victims” - Machhapuchre VDC, Kaski District

  14. We had found the high level of water flowing from springs on the way of different places which are coming from very heavy snow melting from the mountains. The local people perspectives in environmental Change are the temperature of Khumbu is very high, shifting the rainy season, heavy rainfall, growing many types of vegetables and flowers, fruits, No. of Tourists are low because of last year earthquake, flows of water in river and melting of snow in the mountain is very high etc.

  15. Rainfall: more than before • Snowfall: 1.5-2 ft Before but now less than 1 ft (AB @ last year)(पुस-माघमा हिउँ बढी ) • Drinking Water Facility: Carry<>Pipeline • Agriculture: Less<>Variety+seasonal+offseasonal • Drought: March-Dry (more) Winter (a bit dry) Forest Fire+Dust

  16. Climate Change Scenario in Nepal • OECD – mean annual temperature to increase by an average of 1.20C by 2030, 1.70C by 2050 and 30C by 2100 against the baseline using the GCMs run with SRES B2 scenario • NCVST - mean annual temperature to increase by 1.40C by 2030, 2.80C by 2060 and 4.70C by 2090 using GCM and RCM • NCVST - higher increment of temperatures in western and central Nepal compared to eastern Nepal for the year 2030, 2060, and 2090 OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development GCM – Global circulation model SRES - Special Report on Emission Scenarios NCVST - Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team

  17. Now Think • What will be the Effect of Climate Change in Project?

  18. South Asia? • 1 - Bangladesh (1) • 2 - India (2) • 3 - Nepal (4) • 4 - Afghanistan (8) • 5 - Pakistan (16)

  19. Think • What will be the outcome of the project due to climate change?

  20. A story of frog

  21. Adaptive capacity Livelihood assets • Social Resource and Hazard Mapping • Livelihood Assets Analysis • Institutional Analysis Indicators • Development - Human Development Index • Livelihood Strategies - Non Agricultural Livelihood Strategies, Absentee Population • Social Network - Number of working NGOs

  22. IPCC Criteria for VA • Character of Climate Change • Magnitude of impacts, • Timing of impacts, • Persistence and reversibility of impacts, • Likelihood (estimates of uncertainty) of impacts and vulnerabilities, and confidence in those estimates, • Potential for adaptation, • Distributional aspects of impacts and vulnerabilities, • Importance of the system(s) at risk.

  23. Indicators of CC Impacts • Agriculture & Food Security • Water Resources and Energy • Climate Induced Disaster • Forest & Bio-diversity • Urban Settlement & Infrastructure • Public Health • GESI • Hydro-meteorological parameters (Temperature, Precipitation, Humidity) • Others

  24. National Need for CC Adaptation • Micro-level analysis and mapping of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability • Reducing knowledge gaps on climate change • Prioritization of adaptation into Developmental processes • Financial and Institutional capacity building for integration of adaptation in development process

  25. National Effort • Sustainable Development Agenda (SDAN) , 2003 • Climate Change Council, 2009 • Mountain Initiative 2009 • Climate Change Management Division, 2010, MoEnv • NAPA, 2010 • Climate Change Policy, 2011 • Climate Resilient Planning Tool , 2011: NPC • Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA), November 2011 • The Constitution of Nepal 2015

  26. NAPA • Urban Settlement and Infrastructure • Agriculture and Food Security • Climate- Induced Disaster • Public Health • Forests and Biodiversity • Water Resources ad Energy

  27. LAPA Framework

  28. Climate Change Response: (IPCC, 2001)

  29. Steps in the CRM Process • Step 1 – Setting the Context • Project location and components, Current climate, History of extreme events, Climate change projections • Step 2 – Analyze the Risk – No/Low/Medium/High • Step 3 – Analyzing the Hazard • Detail climate change hazards, Frequency of events, Project impacts • Step 4 – Frequency and Probability - Evaluate probability and severity • Step 5 – Evaluate the Risk -Determine the risk to the project from Step 4 • Step 6 – Adaptation Plan - Describe actions to be taken to address climate change impact • Step 7 – Implementation and Monitoring - Monitor climatic changes and performance of adaptation measures

  30. Steps for Responding CC • Knowledge/information -Understanding climate risk and resiliency of Project • Understanding vulnerability • Planning for prioritizing actions, mobilizing resources • Execution of the plan, monitoring and feedback

  31. Adaptation Iceberg

  32. Thank you

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