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February 2012 Climate Outlook: Weak to Moderate La Niña and SST Forecasts

The February 2012 Climate Outlook indicates the expected dissipation of the weak to moderate La Niña by late March or April. An analysis of the recently completed NDJ 2011-12 season shows significant sea surface temperature (SST) correlations globally and in the tropics. The verification of precipitation and temperature forecasts has revealed some variances in accuracy. Additionally, the ongoing atmospheric conditions reflect the La Niña signature, impacting global weather patterns. The document further discusses the implications for tropical cyclone forecasts and includes skill scores from IRI precipitation forecasts.

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February 2012 Climate Outlook: Weak to Moderate La Niña and SST Forecasts

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  1. Climate Outlook – February 2012 Weak/moderate La Nina expected to dissipate in late March or April

  2. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season NDJ 2011-12 SST forecast From Oct Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.68 Trop 0.75 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.68 Trop 0.75 NDJ 2011-12 SST obs anom (deg C)

  3. SST and Precipitation Obs for Recently Completed Season NDJ 2011-12 SST obs anom (deg C) warm cold NDJ 2011-12 precip anom (mm/day) wet dry

  4. Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast NDJ 2011-12 precip tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.017 (0.009) T 0.039 (0.016) Rate of Return: G 0.018 (0.009) T 0.043 (0.017) Heidke skill: G 0.061 (0.046) T 0.095 (0.073) GROC: G 0.552 (0.543) T 0.580 (0.569) NDJ 2011-12 precip probab forecast from mid-Oct

  5. Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast NDJ 2011-12 temp tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G-0.019 (0.112) T -0.029 (0.169) Rate of Return: G 0.011 (0.108) T 0.031 (0.174) Heidke skill: G 0.073 (0.291) T 0.126 (0.390) GROC: G 0.569 (0.579) T 0.594 (0.626) NDJ 2011-12 temp probab forecast from mid-Oct

  6. Last week’s SST anomaly | | | | | | | | | | | -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

  7. Stronger El Niño El Nino Jan La Nina StrongerLa Niña

  8. very strong La Nina signature in atmosphere * * * * * * * * * Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP La Nina signature in atmosphere

  9. Stronger La Niña **** *********** ******* Stronger El Niño

  10. mid-Dec

  11. mid-Jan

  12. mid-Feb

  13. Feb 2010 Feb 2011 Feb 2012 enhanced trades persist Thermocline depth below average in eastern part of basin ENSO state: weak to moderate La Nina

  14. Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mid- Feb 2012 mid- Jan 2012 Moderate Weak MJO MJO + + Weak/ Moderate La Nina Weak/ Moderate La Nina = = Weak(+) La Nina Weak/ Moderate La Nina

  15. From mid-January

  16. From early February

  17. From mid-February

  18. February 2012 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) PLUS MEAN MINUS

  19. Tropical Cyclone ForecastsFebruary 2012 No TC Forecasts in February

  20. Six IRI focus areas: 12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts RPSS GROC RPSS GROC score R G R G R G R G R G R G

  21. This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……./tonyb/fctbriefingmonyr or ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr

  22. Old one (but Indonesia may not be in right position)

  23. New one

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