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Climate Variability and Predictability in CFS Models

Explore potential predictability in climate variability using the CFS model. Analyze total variance, ENSO behavior, and the impact of different seasons. Understand the differences between warm and cold seasons to enhance climate predictions.

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Climate Variability and Predictability in CFS Models

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  1. Climate Variability and Potential Predictabilityin CFS Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA

  2. MDL Total Variance Clim OBS Diff

  3. More > 1. than < 1.

  4. DML ENSO DJFs NEUT DJFs OBS DIFF More Negative More Positive

  5. MDL NEUT DJFs ENSO DJFs OBS Less > 1. More >> 1. Ratio

  6. MDL VAR of ENS Means Versus ENS Spreads A B A B

  7. Neutral DJFs VAR of ENS Means Var of ENS Spreads ENSO DJFs Diff Behavior MDL

  8. MDL VAR Ratio = Neutral / ENSO Neut ENSO More > 1. More < 1.

  9. Warm DJFs VAR of ENS Means VAR of ENS Spreads Cold DJFs DIFF More Negat More Posit

  10. Potential Predictability VAR of Clim Signal ------------------------------------ Total VAR (Signal+noise)

  11. Potential Pred: ENSO vs Neut ENSO DJFs Neut DJFs

  12. Potential Pred: Warm vs Cold

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