1 / 13

Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS

Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS. Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA. MDL. Total Variance. Clim. OBS. Diff. More > 1. than < 1. DML. ENSO DJFs. NEUT DJFs. OBS. DIFF. More Negative. More Positive. MDL. NEUT DJFs.

korene
Télécharger la présentation

Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate Variability and Potential Predictabilityin CFS Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA

  2. MDL Total Variance Clim OBS Diff

  3. More > 1. than < 1.

  4. DML ENSO DJFs NEUT DJFs OBS DIFF More Negative More Positive

  5. MDL NEUT DJFs ENSO DJFs OBS Less > 1. More >> 1. Ratio

  6. MDL VAR of ENS Means Versus ENS Spreads A B A B

  7. Neutral DJFs VAR of ENS Means Var of ENS Spreads ENSO DJFs Diff Behavior MDL

  8. MDL VAR Ratio = Neutral / ENSO Neut ENSO More > 1. More < 1.

  9. Warm DJFs VAR of ENS Means VAR of ENS Spreads Cold DJFs DIFF More Negat More Posit

  10. Potential Predictability VAR of Clim Signal ------------------------------------ Total VAR (Signal+noise)

  11. Potential Pred: ENSO vs Neut ENSO DJFs Neut DJFs

  12. Potential Pred: Warm vs Cold

More Related