Balancing social and economic policy of Europe during the first European Semester

1. Balancing social and economic policy of Europe during the first European Semester Romania – solutions for alleviating crisis effects, fighting against poverty and boost employment Petru Sorin DANDEA Vice president NTUC “Cartel Alfa” Brussels September, 2011

2. Presentation Structure • Main important effects of the economic crisis • Commission recommendations - IMF stand by agreement • Measures implemented by government • Effects on poverty and employment • Possible solutions for combating poverty and boost employment – trade union view

3. Main important effects of the economic crisis • From a +7.8 increase of GDP in 2008 to -7.2 GDP in 2009 • More than 300000 new unemployed from the beginning of 2009 (unemployment rate raised from 4.2 in 2008 to 7.5% in 2009 and remained steady up to the middle of 2011 ) • State budget deficit forecast for the end of 2009 about -7.2%

4. Main important effects of the economic crisis • Difficulties in the paymentof wages and pensions in the pubic sector • Arrears in payments of the government debt to the private sector - more than 2 bln Euros • More than 29000 SMEs bankrupt from the beginning of 2009.

5. IMF Stand by Agreement (EC recomandations) • Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for a • period of 24 months in the amount equivalent to SDR11.443 billion • (€12.95 billion) • Inconjunction with support of €5 billion under the EU’s balance of • payment financing facility • Other multilateral commitments of some €2 billion (WB branches)

6. IMF Stand by Agreement (EC recomandations) • Strengthen fiscal policy further to reduce the government’s financing • needs andimprove long-term fiscal sustainability, thus preparing • Romania for eventual entry into theeuro zone (CBD 4.2 in 2009 and • 6.1 in 2010); • Maintain adequate capitalization of banks and liquidity in domestic • financialMarkets; • Bring inflation within the NBR’s target range and maintain it there; • Secure adequate external financing and improve confidence.

7. IMF Stand by Agreement (EC recomandations) The SB agreement – main components Conditionalities · Public employment and the compensation system: pay scale harmonisation;elimination of bonuses; targeted reduction in wage bill.. The public sector wage bill is targeted to bereduced by 2% of GDP by 2015. · Fiscal responsibility: independent fiscal council; binding medium‐term budgetary framework including expenditure, deficit and debt rules. · Pension reform: changes in pension indexation; increases in retirement age and minimum contribution period; expansion of the contribution base. · Tax administration reform:new legislation to improve taxcollection, which is poor by EU comparison. ·Reinforcing banking sector: measures for strengthen capitalization rate and reducing risks faced by banks.

8. IMF Stand by Agreement (EC recomandations) The SB agreement – main components • Measures implemented by government – 2009 • foregoing public sector wage increases (totaling 5 percent) scheduled • for 2009 or equivalent further cuts in employment; • (ii) reducing public employment, including by replacing only 1 of 7 departing • employees; • (iii) frozen pensions at the level of previous year • (iv) 15 days compulsory non paid holyday for all employees from public sector • (v) 20000 dismisalls in the public sector

9. IMF Stand by Agreement (EC recomandations) The SB agreement – main components Measures implemented by government – 2011 (i) continuing reducing public employment below 1.2 mln, including by replacing only 1 of 7 departing employees; (ii) frozen pensions at the level of previous year and introduction of compulsory contribution for health insurance by 5.5% for all pensioners (iii) 20000 dismisalls in the public sector (SOE)

10. IMF Stand by Agreement • Measures implemented by government – 2010 • a 25 % cut in total wages, bonuses, and other compensation paid • to all public sector employees; • (ii) a 15 % cut in pensions and all social allowances • (replaced partialy by a 5% increse in VAT, after CC declared the measure • unconstitutional); • (iii) 75.000 colective dissmisals from public sector • (iv) cuts in transfers to local governments; • (v) further reductions in heating subsidies.

11. IMF Stand by Agreement • Dialogue with social partners • Regular meetings with IMF, WB and EU representatives during the assessment • missions (9 meetings from April 2009 to June 2011) • Two day seminar organized by IMF for representatives of TU organizations from • ECE (January 2010 - Vienna) • One day seminar organized by IMF for Romanian TU representatives • (October 2010 - Bucharest)

12. Effects on poverty and employment Severely materially deprived people People at risk of poverty after social transfer

13. Effects on poverty and employment Most affected by poverty population categories Relative poverty rate in 2010 – 18.5%

14. Effects on poverty and employment Employment rate Unemployment rate

15. Possible solutions for combating poverty and boost employment – trade union view • Combating fiscal evasion, corruption and informal labour market • Amending fiscal regulation for making it more equitable and replacing • flat tax with progressive tax system • Reinforce administrative capacity of the Managing Authorities responsible for • European Structural Funds in order to speed up the funds absorbtion (more than • Euro 27 bln still available up to 2013) • Do not deregulate the labour market by introducing • hiden free hiring and firing procedure • Do not decupled pensions from salaries by changing the pension indexation • mechanism • Inteligent restructuring of human resources in the public sector, staring with • an realistic evaluation of the real needs of the public bodies in terms of human • resources

16. Possible solutions for combating poverty and boost employment – trade union view National framework agreement on minimum wage

17. Minimum wage progression

19. Total taxation including SSC as %GDP Taxes and SSC Other revenues

20. Compliances effect – SSC reduction and flat tax SSC(% gross wage) Labour Taxation Total taxation(%GDP)

21. Thank you !