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Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

An outlook to future air quality in Europe: Priorities for EMEP and WGE from an Integrated Assessment perspective. Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

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Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

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  1. An outlook to future air quality in Europe:Priorities for EMEP and WGE from an Integrated Assessment perspective Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 35thSession of the EMEP Steering BodyGeneva, Sep 5-7, 2011

  2. SO2 emissions in Western Europe (EU15+2):A 1970’s perspective and actual development to 2010 Source: IIASAhttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at

  3. The EC4MACS Baseline ProjectionMega-trends: Energy consumption up to 2030 • Baseline assumes current MS policies, but not the targets of the Energy & Climate Package • Despite a 50% increase in GDP, EU-27 energy use would stabilize • No major changes in fuel shares, although renewables increase • Saturation of transport demand after 2020 Energy use by fuel Energy use by sector Energy intensity of GDP Mileage per person

  4. The EC4MACS Baseline ProjectionMega-trends: Agricultural and land use development • Less cows and cattle, more pigs • Strong increase in bio-fuel production • More land area for crops and wood production Bio-fuel production Livestock numbers Wood production

  5. The EC4MACS Baseline Projection (= Gothenburg revision baseline) Most air pollutant emissions will decline • Baseline includes current legislation with national interpretations of IPPC directive • Strong decline in SO2, NOx, PM, VOC before 2020, but less improvements expected after 2020 • Only little change in NH3 after 2010 SO2 PM2.5 VOC NOx NH3

  6. The EC4MACS Baseline Projection Impact indicators will decline too • All impact indicators will decline to 2030 • New in EC4MACS: Assessment for Natura2000 areas Natura2000 areas: Excess of critical loads in 2020 Eutrophication Acidification

  7. The EC4MACS Baseline Projection But damage costs remain substantial Damage costs of air pollution in the EU-27

  8. The EC4MACS Baseline Projection There is potential for further cost-effective action with large benefits EU-27, based on Holland et al., 2010

  9. Cause-specific mortality method suggests larger health effects from PM than earlier all-cause approach Loss in statistical life expectancy due to PM2.5 in 2000 Source: CIAM report 2/2011 for TFH 2011

  10. Findings: Some key problem areas in the future • Air quality: • Urban air quality (PM, NO2) • Nitrogen • Climate: • Climate targets for 2050 require fundamental structural measures in the near term • Land use emissions/sinks critical for further agreements • Interactions between air quality policies and climate strategies

  11. Priority areas for further EMEP and WGE workfrom an integrated assessment perspective

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