Complexity

1. Complexity Sorin Solomon, Multi-Agent Division ISI and Racah Institute of Physics HUJ MORE IS DIFFERENT (Anderson 72)(more is more than more)Complex“Macroscopic” properties may be the collective effect of many simple “microscopic” components (and independent on their details)

2. Semiotics and Ontology Social Science Biology Business Administration Computers Economics and Finance Cognition Phase Transitions, clusters, scaling Statistical Physics

3. Could it be that common mechanisms lead to the emergence of life from many molecules, of meaning from simple sensors, of societies from individuals, of health from simple immune cells? The emergent collective objects belong to one science The elementary objects generating them to another science The challenge : transcend traditional disciplinary researchComplexity Research: More than a juxtaposition of expertises: a new grammar with new interrogative formsgrow a new generation of bi- or multi-lingual scientists.

4. Semiotics and Ontology SocialScience Biology Computers Phase Transitions, clusters, scaling BusinessAdministration AtomsDrops Statistical Physics Economicsand Finance Cognition MicroMacro

5. Semiotics and Ontology SocialScience Biology WordsMeaning ChemicalsCells IndividualsSociety Computers Phase Transitions, clusters, scaling BusinessAdministration BitsInformation items AtomsDrops CustomerMarket Statistical Physics Economicsand Finance Cognition MicroMacro NeuronsBrain TradersHerds

6. 1cm2 1Kg 950C

7. 1cm 1Kg 1Kg 950C 97

8. 1cm 1cm 1Kg 1Kg 1Kg 99 950C 97

9. Extrapolation? ? 1cm 1cm 1Kg 1Kg 1Kg 1Kg 99 101 950C 97

10. 1cm The breaking of macroscopic linear extrapolation 1cm 1Kg 1Kg 1Kg 99 101 950C 97

11. Microscopic view of a water drop: a network of linked water molecules From Gene Stanley

12. The water drop becomes vapors: the network splits in small clusters From Gene Stanley

13. Boiling is not a physical property of the molecules but a generic property of the clusters. To understand, one does not need the details of the interactions. Rather one can prove theorems on what is the density of links that ensures the emergence or disintegration of clusters Phase Transition

14. Instead of temperature (energy / matter): • Exchange rate/interest rate • Value At Risk / liquid funds • Equity Price / Dividends • Equity Price / fundamental value 97 99 101 95

15. Instead of temperature (energy / matter): • Exchange rate/interest rate • Value At Risk / liquid funds • Equity Price / Dividends • Equity Price / fundamental value • Taxation (without representation)/ Tea

16. Semiotics and Ontology SocialScience Biology WordsMeaning ChemicalsCells IndividualsSociety Phase Transitions, clusters, scaling Computers BusinessAdministration BitsInformation items AtomsDrops CustomerMarket Economicsand Finance Statistical Physics Cognition NeuronsBrain TradersHerds

17. IN THIS TALK: • Examples • from economics • connected to the boiling and • without mathematics • But at the Multi-Agent Division at ISI also: • social science, biology, cognition, ontology • applications to Scaling, Criticality, autocataliticity and other physics/ statistical mechanics originating ideas. • Theorems, Renormalization group,etc.

18. Propagation effects: - product propagation - spread of ideas - epidemics - Internet viruses - Social ills: drugs, terror - Credit networks and bankruptcy avalanches

19. Product Propagation Bass extrapolation formulavs microscopic representation VCR VCR Actual sales Extrapolation SALES BASS

20. Product Propagation Bass extrapolation formulavs microscopic representation VCR Actual sales Extrapolation CARS in USA 1895-1930 DVD Reality curves

21. The Square Lattice is just for clarityThe effects demonstrated are much more general PotentialBuyers Rejectors

27. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

28. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

29. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

30. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

31. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

32. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

33. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

34. The Buyers are split in small clusters Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

35. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

36. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

37. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

38. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

39. The epidemics, bankruptcy avalanche, idea, product spread is limited to one cluster Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy?

40. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50%What Percent will actually buy?7/48 < 15 %

41. Density of potential adopters/ buyers: 26/48>50% What Percent will actually buy? 7/48 < 15 %

42. Only 15 % will actually buy! But what if add one more potential buyer?

43. Only 15 % will actually buy! But what if add one more potential buyer?

44. Only 15 % will actually buy! But what if add one more potential buyer?

45. Only 15 % will actually buy! But what if add one more potential buyer?

46. Only 15 % will actually buy! But what if add one more potential buyer?

47. Only 15 % will actually buy! But what if add one more potential buyer?

48. Only 15 % will actually buy! But what if add one more potential buyer?

49. Only 15 % will actually buy! But what if add one more potential buyer?

50. Only 15 % will actually buy! But what if add one more potential buyer?