Telling Our Stories Using Data

1. Telling Our Stories Using Data The Connecticut Housing Coalition Annual Conference October 19, 2011 Megan DeCrappeo Bolton Research Analyst National Low Income Housing Coalition megan@nlihc.org www.nlihc.org

2. Presentation Outline • Why data are important in advocacy • An overview of federal data sources for housing advocacy • How to know which data source to use • Examples of how to make use of these datasets • How budget cuts might affect data collection efforts

3. Why do we need good data? • To make decisions about funding • The Brookings Institution found that $416 billion annually in federal grants are allocated in whole or in part based on data from the ACS. • To strengthen your argument • Personal stories are key to advocacy, but backing those up with hard numbers appeals to members of Congress. • To determine need, evaluate programs and determine next steps • We can’t “steer the ship without the map”

4. Where you get the statistics you need • Use those provided by the owner of the data • e.g. Census Bureau, HUD, USDA, BLS, etc. • Calculate them directly from the microdata (if available). • Use those provided by another, third party user of the data. • Calculate additional statistics based on others’ statistics.

5. Where you get the statistics you need Government Sources • Decennial Census • American Community Survey (ACS) • Comprehensive Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Data • American Housing Survey (AHS) • Housing Vacancy Survey • Others: Current Population Survey, Fair Market Rents, Rental Housing Finance Survey, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act

6. The Decennial Census http://2010.census.gov/2010census/ • U.S. Constitution mandates a count of every American resident every ten years for apportionment of Congress. • Basic data for entire population collected via a “short form.” • Historically a detailed “long form” survey reached 17% of households. • All data (from short and long forms) available to the tract and block level. • Not specific to housing, limited housing detail.

7. What Changed in 2010? • If you take one message from this presentation, it should be that the 2010 Census is different from all past decennial Censuses. • The long form was replaced by the ACS in 2010 • The ACS reaches 1 in 40 households every year (vs. 1 in 6 households every 10 years with the Census long form). • Today the Census can only give us basic information about the housing stock, like tenure and vacancy rates. All other housing data now comes from other surveys.

8. American Community Survey (ACS)www.census.gov/acs/www • Created to replace the long form in the census; information collected annually. • Includes: • Samples 3 million households nationwide. • 800,000 before 2005. • Uses 3 and 5 year data to reach lower geographies. • Components: • Demographic Information. • Housing. • Social Characteristics. • Economic Traits. • Microdata and tabular statistics available. • “PUMAs” potential source for local microdata statistics.

9. ACS Multiyear Data 1 = 1-year estimate; 3 & 5 are averages based on that many years of data collection

10. Housing data in the ACS • Census-like Housing Data • Cost: contract and gross rent; mortgage payments; specific utility payments; mobile home fees; homeowner association dues; ratio of housing costs to income. • Quality: complete plumbing/kitchen facilities; year structure built; # of people per room. • Unit/Property: vacancy; value; bedrooms; # of units in structure. • Demographics: tenure; income; family type; size; employment status, race and ethnicity. • Some differences due to changes in questions and methods.

11. Previously based on Census data, now based on the ACS. Special tabulation for HUD that includes HUD Income Limits. Allows for analysis down to county and place level currently and when 5-year data is made available, down to tract level. Currently 18 different tables that show a variety of crosstabs. Primarily used by local governments for Consolidated Plans. CHAS Datahttp://www.huduser.org/portal/datasets/cp.html

12. How the ACS is Improving Housing Policy • ACS provides more recent local data • HUD has released 2005-2007 and 2006-2008 CHAS data, should be releasing 5-year CHAS in 2011. • HUD now integrates recent rent updates from more local areas available in the ACS into their Fair Market Rent calculations • (Previously changes in national and regional inflation were used along with more frequent random digit dialing surveys) • ACS provides continuous information • Possibility for annual CHAS data • Small area FMR demonstration project (based on zip codes) • In the past there have been large disruptions and plenty of angst when a new Census corrects past estimates • Together this may better allow us to track local progress of policies and conditions.

13. How the ACS Complicates Our Task • We never get a good snapshot of the entire country at the lowest levels of geography. • Margins of error get very large in areas with small populations. • How to interpret multiyear data. • Who is a recent mover in five year data? • Does a median home price based on 2005 through 2009 data tell us anything? • There will always be new data, perhaps generating more shallow and less deep analysis.

14. The American Housing Survey (AHS)www.huduser.org/datasets/ahs.html • Created by the Census Bureau to survey housing in the years between the Censuses and directed by PD&R. • Includes: • Biennial National Panel Survey: 55,000 housing units. • Metro Surveys: cuts in number and frequency in recent years. • Components: • Housing inventory: structure, # of bedrooms. • Financial characteristics: rent, housing costs. • Neighborhood quality. • Household characteristics. • Repairs and remodeling. • Micro data and tabular Statistics available • (A lot more details, less often, for fewer places)

15. The Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS)www.census.gov/hhes/www/hvs.html • Created to provide quarterly and annual information on vacancy rates and traits of available units. • Includes: • Quarterly and annual statistics from the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the entire U.S., regions, states, and for the 75 largest metropolitan areas. • Components: • Rental vacancy rates. • Homeownership rates. • Householder information. • Traits of available units. • Tabular and microdata statistics publicly available

16. Fair Market Rents (FMRs)www.huduser.org/datasets/fmr.html • Created to give an estimate of gross rent; used in finding rental housing units for the Section 8 housing assistance payments program. • Includes (based on): • As of FY2012, Census 2000 data no longer used, instead data comes from the ACS 5-Year Data • Consumer Price Index (for trending); and • Random digit dialing (RDD) telephone surveys. • Components: • Proposed and final Fair Market Rents materials up to FY2012. • Historical FMRs and detailed methodology documentation and information system

17. Other HUD/Census Sources • www.huduser.org/ Picture of Subsidized Housing (2008), Geographic Information Systems, Government Sponsored Enterprise Data, Income Limits, Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, Manufactured Home and Subprime Lender List, Property Owners and Managers Survey, Qualified Census Tracts and Difficult Development Areas. • pic.hud.gov/pic/RCRPublic/rcrmain.aspResident Characteristics Report • www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/soma/soma.htmlSurvey of Market Absorption, HUD-Census statistics on the renting up of recently built apartments • http://www.census.gov/const/www/Survey of Construction includes New Residential Construction

18. How to know what data to use • Who? • Households, families or individuals? • Renters or owners or other housing characteristic? • A particular race, ethnicity or other demographic characteristic? • For a particular income level or other economic characteristic?

19. How to know what data to use Where? A specific place, type of place, or anyplace? Do you need national, state, metropolitan area, county, city (place), or neighborhood level data? When? This year, a particular year, the most recent possible? For a span of years? How many points in time within that span? When are data published vs. the time period they represent.

20. Examples • To make the case that housing is becoming more unaffordable: • You can look at housing cost to income ratios or increases to rents • At household level (for HCIR) or housing units (rents) • Can do at national level, but the more local the better. • Should use the most recent data possible that is available for the level of geography you want. • Possible sources: ACS 1-year at national or state level, 3- or 5-year ACS for lower levels. To include income level, use CHAS. For rents, use FMRs or Out of Reach.

21. Examples • To make the case that there is a shortage of affordable housing units: • You can calculate the number of units affordable to each income group • At household level • Can do at national level, but the more local the better. • Should use the most recent data possible that is available for the level of geography you want. • Possible sources: ACS 1-year at national or state level, 3- or 5-year ACS for lower levels. With ACS will need to compare to state medians, but to include HUD income levels, use CHAS.

22. Examples • To show worst case housing needs: • HUD releases Worst Case Housing Needs report every two years. • At household and family level • National • They use the most recent data possible that is available • Source: AHS - allows HUD to show number of unassisted households with severe cost burden and living in substandard housing. Available by elderly, disabled, family type, etc.

23. Advocating for High Quality Data • FY11 and FY12 Budgets from President included more funding for Census to expand sample size of ACS and to PD&R for improving AHS. • However, in current climate, there have been calls to scale back or even eliminate the ACS and other funding for research. • Please tell your Representatives how important it is to have high quality data! • See Chapter in NLIHC Advocate’s Guide on Federal Data Sources for Housing Advocacy for more information.

24. American Factfinder (V.1)

25. American Factfinder (V.2)

26. NLIHCwww.nlihc.org • Out of Reach 2012 - to be released in the spring. • Congressional District data profiles - recently updated with 5-year ACS data. • Reports and Research Notes on national and local conditions using ACS, Census, AHS, CHAS, etc. • National Preservation Database (not yet released) • Follow us on Twitter @nlihc and Facebook and read our blog - On the Home Front for updates on our work.