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Simpson’s Paradox

Simpson’s Paradox. You be the manager. It’s the last inning. Your team is down one run with the bases loaded and two out. You need to send in a pinch hitter. Two batters are available. Whom will you send to bat?. You’ll need a calculator. Here are your choices.

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Simpson’s Paradox

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Simpson’s Paradox

  2. You be the manager • It’s the last inning. • Your team is down one run with the bases loaded and two out. • You need to send in a pinch hitter. • Two batters are available. Whom will you send to bat? You’ll need a calculator.

  3. Here are your choices

  4. Is there anything else you want to know? • Here is how they batted against left- and right-handed pitchers.

  5. What’s going on? • Smith hits .227 against righties and .346 against lefties. Jones hits .277 against righties and .375 against lefties. • Smith can have a better overall average even though he is worse against both righties and lefties. • Since Smith hit against a lot of lefties, his batting average is closer to .346. • Since Jones hit against a lot of righties, his batting average is closer to .277

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