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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC AND HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC AND HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS. OCTOBER 2009. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA’S REAL ESTATE CYCLE…. YEARS 2005-2009. DISTRESSED HOUSING TRENDS AND FORECASTS. DISTRESSED HOUSING “SHADOW INVENTORY”. HOUSING CONSTRUCTION. Record Low Construction Activity.

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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC AND HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS

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  1. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC AND HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS OCTOBER 2009

  2. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA’S REAL ESTATE CYCLE… YEARS 2005-2009

  3. DISTRESSED HOUSING TRENDS AND FORECASTS

  4. DISTRESSED HOUSING “SHADOW INVENTORY”

  5. HOUSING CONSTRUCTION Record Low Construction Activity

  6. NEW HOUSING SUPPLY WITH ‘SHADOW’ INVENTORY

  7. WHAT DRIVES THE NEXT ECONOMIC CYCLE?

  8. STIMULUS SPENDING California gets a Large Share of Infrastructure California gets $24B in State Relief

  9. MEDICAL/PHARMACEUTICAL/BIO-TECH

  10. RENEWABLE ENERGY • PHOTOVOLTAIC ROOFING • ‘OFF-THE-GRID’ BATTERY-RUN HOUSING • PARABOLIC VOLTAIC ‘FARMS’ • SOLAR / ELECTRICAL VEHICLES

  11. Lawrence Livermore Lab began project in 2001 ($2B spent thus far) World’s most powerful lasers focus on bb-sized hydrogen wafer. Ignites ‘mini sun’ that generates 500+ trillion watts of peak power Clean energy 1st fusion power plant slated for 2030 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

  12. EMPLOYMENT

  13. 12-MONTH JOB CHANGE

  14. UNEMPLOYMENT

  15. HOUSING PERMIT ACTIVITY

  16. HOUSING CONSTRUCTION PATTERNS

  17. NEW HOUSING SUPPLY WITH ‘SHADOW’ INVENTORY

  18. 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

  19. POPULATION GROWTH

  20. HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROWTH

  21. HOUSING MARKET SUMMARY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

  22. Southern California Housing

  23. Southern California Housing

  24. Southern California Housing

  25. HOUSING MARKET FIVE-YEAR FORECASTS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

  26. HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY

  27. HOUSING OVER/UNDER SUPPLY

  28. HOUSING VALUATION

  29. HOUSING OVER/UNDER VALUATION

  30. MEDIAN HOME PRICES

  31. MEDIAN HOME PRICES

  32. California Long-Term Forecast Housing Price Appreciation Ideal Land Acquisition = Yr. 2009-10 Ideal Market Entry = Yr. 2011-12

  33. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS • Southern California’s economy is in turmoil, with unprecedented job losses, but job losses are easing. • Housing Construction is at an all-time low. • Housing Affordability is an all-time high. • Distressed Housing Inventory is burning off at a rapid rate. • Significant levels (but not a flood) of distressed land inventory will soon be released. • Banks will soon begin to work with Asset Management Teams. • Economic growth resumes the latter half of Year 2010. • Marginal price appreciation begins in Year 2010, and builds toward another cycle of double-digit appreciation.

  34. REE Member Services • Monthly National O/R Report • Webinar Sponsorship Opportunities • Full nationwide real estate consulting services • Support for Financial Entities in determining: • Asset Valuation, • Asset optimization, • ‘Workout/Build out’ strategies, • Liquidation/Distribution strategies Principal - Mark Robbins Boud mark.boud@realestateeconomics.com (949) 502-5151 x101 Director of Sales and Marketing – Judy Dool Judy.dool@realestateeconomics.com (949) 502-5151 x114 Customer Service - Sandy Rivera Sandy.rivera@realestateeconomics.com (949) 502-5151 x108

  35. Mark Robbins Boud mark.boud@realestateeconomics.com REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS 8961 Research Drive Ste 200 Irvine, CA 92618 P: (949) 502-5151 F: (949) 502-5155

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