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ATS ULTra Status Report Steve Raney, ATS Inc. (U.S.)

ATS ULTra Status Report Steve Raney, ATS Inc. (U.S.). ATS ULTra Status Report. PPT will NOT be posted on the web, not for distribution Agenda Some discussion items. What will the future hold? Heathrow Terminal 5 status. Schedule Version 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 VisiCalc, Lotus 123, MS Excel

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ATS ULTra Status Report Steve Raney, ATS Inc. (U.S.)

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  1. ATS ULTra Status ReportSteve Raney, ATS Inc. (U.S.)

  2. ATS ULTra Status Report • PPT will NOT be posted on the web, not for distribution • Agenda • Some discussion items. What will the future hold? • Heathrow Terminal 5 status. Schedule • Version 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 • VisiCalc, Lotus 123, MS Excel • “Road based” PRT • Market forecast • Swedish IST/GTS • Safety certification.

  3. LHR Terminal 5 Opens March ’08 N Car Park to T5 3.8 km of track 18 vehicles 300,000 pax pa ULTra Opens April 2008 T5: 3rd largest “airport” ?Morgantown complexity? Full Heathrow Build: bigger system, in phases

  4. Heathrow (LHR) Terminal 5 Status • BAA: privatized, owns LHR + 6 airports • Contracts: Baltimore, Logan, Pittsburg, Indianapolis, Naples • 100% private sector funding! • Happy customer (per Mar/Apr TransitPulse ’08 Article by BAA) • “on time and on budget” • 2 year Heathrow study: low emissions, high LOS, space efficient, value. Bus & APM lost. “PRT: only practical soln, 60% travel time svngs, 40% operating cost savings” • Held open procurement: ULTra won • Phased Heathrow implementation • Happy customer: new animation • BAA PR machine, not ATS PR.

  5. Schedule slip: Fall ’08 Spring ’09 • Not: engineering underestimate or parts issue • ATS has met all schedule milestones for Cardiff test track and Heathrow T5 • The schedule slip: • Was an administrative slip • Ferrovial’s $20BB acquisition of BAA had some schedule impact.

  6. Schedule (some wiggle) • Column footings complete Jan ‘08 • Infrastructure complete May ’08 • Columns, spans, concrete running surfaces • Calibration (“learn the guideway”) starts May ‘08 • Stations with glass doors & touch screens, May ’08 • Also for 2008: Cardiff track copies LHR stations • Guideway “fitted out” Oct ’08 (AVP, etc) • AVP – automatic vehicle protection • Commissioning starts Oct ’08 • empty vehicles first, then with passengers • 18th vehicle arrives Dec ’08 • Guideway really does build fast • 4 person, evening crew. 1 column or 1 span per night • Cost: $10 to $15 MM per mile, depending … • For ULTra systems #2 through #5.

  7. VisiCalc, Lotus 123, Excel • Is ATS VisiCalc? Is Vectus Lotus 123? Who will be Microsoft? Genteel?

  8. VisiCalc, Lotus 123, Excel • ATS first mover advantage? • How much does having the best design matter? • Version 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, Excel 98, Excel XP, …. • Is ULTra V1.0 “road-based” PRT too simple? • Ingmar’s study: Skyweb chosen as best • Attendees: rate ULTra design vs. competition • What will ULTra V1.5 include? V2.0? What version did BAA invest $15MM in?

  9. Batteries add weight, limit speed/range? • For BAA’s long term Heathrow vision, is ULTra range an issue? If so, why would BAA invest? • How much do ATS batteries weigh? • Vs. Tesla motors • Road-based PRT: AHS + electric cars • Drive-by-wire versus traditional PRT mechanical switching • Advances in batteries (etc) & auto sensor technologies benefit road-based PRT, and reduce cost.

  10. ULTra: Is guideway too bulky? • Attendees: rate ULTra guideway visual impact • What about Megarail guideway? What if ULTra V1.5 was similar?

  11. When is the PRT Tipping Point? • How many system contracts in 2008? • Versus “announcements” • What’s the deal with Dubai & Masdar? • When will customers ask for PRT (like BAA?) • Customer studies feature PRT (like BAA)? • When do sales go exponential? • Will Fortune 1,000 companies enter? • Will they be genteel?

  12. Socialism/Capitalism & PRT • Did Bill Gates cooperate with competition? Should ATS cooperate? • Will ATS’s value as a company increase from cooperation? Or do investors look for a sustainable technological advantage? • IST/GTS standardized (suspended) PRT scheme • Vendors relegated to being vehicle suppliers • What would Bill Gates say? Linux O/S running Excel.

  13. Safety Certification • ASCE APM Standards • ULTra meets the current standard • ATS and BAA are committee members • UK Rail Inspectorate: similar to U.S. plus “safety designed in.” • Independent safety team meets with ULTra design team regularly. Team adds new features to address safety cases. • Inspectorate: “better than traditional systems” • 361 hazard cases • Earthquake, truck crashes into column, falling debris, fire, bad people, extreme weather, vehicle fails on guideway, slipping on stairs, etc.

  14. THE END

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