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Planning without Estimation

Planning without Estimation. Bonnie Aumann and Arlo Belshee. Create the product with the Highest Value. You have 90 business days (aka 6 months) to deliver No peeking ! The front of the card is all the information you have Estimated Business Value :  

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Planning without Estimation

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  1. Planning without Estimation Bonnie Aumann and Arlo Belshee

  2. Create the product with theHighest Value You have 90 business days (aka 6 months) to deliver No peeking! The front of the card is all the information you have Estimated Business Value:   Excellent  >  Good  >  Some  >  Low Flip a card Add the Actual Value in $$ to your total Subtract the Actual Cost in days from your quota

  3. How it was Rigged Card Values and Costs are selected completely independently • The only correlation is that there are no excellent value cards with a less than a day estimate. Cost estimates are 100% accurate Value estimates have a 25% chance of being "wrong“ • Wrong is defined as off by a factor of 2, which may or may not actually cause a card to be miscategorized. • In particular, that’s more likely to throw off telling whether a given card is “low” or “some” value, and not likely to misfile an excellent – which matches real world.

  4. Real Results – Agile Tour 10/6/2009 No Cost Estimates $1,465,700 $1,183,00 $1,166,900 $1,227,000 With Cost Estimates • $408,182 • $412,958 • $215,447 • $410,647 Team 1: Team 2: Team 3: Team 4: • Teams did 3 to 4 times better without cost estimates

  5. Prioritization Matrix

  6. Prioritization Matrix $$$

  7. Prioritization Matrix $$$ Investment

  8. Prioritization Matrix $$$ Investment Cheap!

  9. Prioritization Matrix $$$ Investment Cheap! WTF

  10. Typical Choices $$$ Investment Cheap! WTF

  11. There’s a problem Choosing this way actually reduces Total Value -- we just saw this happen --

  12. Cognitive Illusion Logarithmic Linear

  13. Maximum Value $$$ Cheap! WTF Investment “An Edge”

  14. Contact Bonnie Aumann @bonniea bonniea@bonniea.com ArloBelshee arlo@electroncascade.com

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