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Revisiting Redistricting in Texas: A method for predicting election results

Revisiting Redistricting in Texas: A method for predicting election results. Maddalena Romano GEOG 596A: Individual Studies. Introduction. Thesis Statement:

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Revisiting Redistricting in Texas: A method for predicting election results

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  1. Revisiting Redistricting in Texas: A method for predicting election results Maddalena Romano GEOG 596A: Individual Studies

  2. Introduction Thesis Statement: Using 2010 election data, I will predict the election results for 2012 for the Texas congressional districts based on the newly-proposed districts.  Hypothesis: Similar to the results of the 2004 election, the redistricting effort will result in more wins for Republicans in the Texas Congressional Districts.

  3. Goals and Objectives Goals • Determine the percentage of voters in the current districts that are registered Republican voters. • Determine the Republican Majority in the new districts. • Predict the number of new districts that will elect a Republican to the US House of Representatives. Objectives • Demonstrate how redistricting is being used so that the party currently in power in Texas can remain in power. • Demonstrate how the distinction between redistricting and gerrymandering are often difficult to determine. • Determine if gerrymandering alone is enough to explain the results of the 2012 election. • Demonstrate how decisions such as these made at the state level can have repercussions on a national level.

  4. Background • The Redistricting Process

  5. Background • The Redistricting Process • The Politics of Texas • Battleground Texas • Nate Silver’s Predictions • The Modifiable Area Unit Problem

  6. Background

  7. Background • The Redistricting Process • The Politics of Texas • Battleground Texas • Nate Silver’s Predictions • The Modifiable Area Unit Problem • The Voting Rights Act of 1965

  8. Methods

  9. Data, Variables, Assumptions Data • Districts: gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/ • Historical Election Data: elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist.exe Variables • the 2010 number of voters per district • the 2010 political party with which they are registered • the 2010 Congressional election results for Texas • Republican voters • Democratic Voters • the 2012 number of voters per district • the 2012 political party with which they are registered • the 2012 Congressional election results for Texas Assumptions • Voter population is evenly distributed • Voter turnout is evenly distributed • Voter turnout can be used as an indicator of the number of Republicans in a district • Gerrymandering was a key component of the redistricting process • Population growth is reflected in the 2010 election results

  10. Exploring the data Figure 3: 2010 Districts with percentage of Republican Majority.

  11. Exploring the Data Figure 4: Proposed 2012 Texas Congressional Districts superimposed over Republican Majority 2010.

  12. Predicted Results Figure 5: Predicted outcome of the 2012 Texas Congressional election using the proposed districts.

  13. Predicted Results

  14. Actual Results

  15. Actual Results Figure 7: Actual Republican wins.

  16. Actual Results Figure 5: Predicted outcome of the 2012 Texas Congressional election using the proposed districts. Figure 7: Actual Republican wins.

  17. Conclusion Goals • Determine the percentage of voters in the current districts that are registered Republican voters. • Determine the Republican Majority in the new districts. • Predict the number of new districts that will elect a Republican to the US House of Representatives. Objectives • Demonstrate how redistricting is being used so that the party currently in power in Texas can remain in power. • Demonstrate how the distinction between redistricting and gerrymandering are often difficult to determine. • Determine if gerrymandering alone is enough to explain the results of the 2012 election. • Demonstrate how decisions such as these made at the state level can have repercussions on a national level. Future studies should expand this analysis to include demographic data on the population growth and distribution in said districts.

  18. Questions?

  19. Sources Cited • American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) (2013). “The Battle to Protect the Ballot: Voter Suppression Measures Passed Since 2011.” Retrieved on March 30, 2013, from www.aclu.org/maps/battle-protect-ballot-voter-suppression-measures-passed-2011 • Advancement Project (2011). "Democracy Under Assault: The Truth About Voter Disenfranchisement Laws." Retrieved on March 10, 2013, from www.moveon.org/r?r=268596&id=34802-18329907-Wy3oHwx&t=5 [PDF] • Battleground Texas (2013). “Battleground Texas”. Retrieved on March 16, 2013, from www.battlegroundtexas.org • Bazelon, E. (2012). “It’s Appalling that Gerrymandering Is Legal.” Retrieved on April 9, 2013, from www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2012/11/ the_supreme_court_may_gut_the_voting_rights_act_and_make_gerrymandering.html • Berg, N. (2012). “Increasing Density and Diversity Likely to Make Western States More Blue.” Retrieved February 9, 2013, from www.theatlanticcities.com/ politics/2012/02/increasing-density-diversity-western-states-more-blue/1108/ • Bird, J. (2013). “The Case for Battleground Texas”. Retrieved on March 16, 2013, from www.huffingtonpost.com/jeremy-bird/battleground-texas_b_2774557.html • Bureau of Labor Statistics (2013). “Consumer Price Index, Northeast Region – February 2013.” Retrieved on April 8, 2013 from www.bls.gov/ro3/cpine.htm • Cecere, C. (2013). “Shelby County v. Holder: The original understanding of Congress’s enforcement powers”. Retrieved on March 30, 2013, from www.scotusblog.com/?p=160452 • Chait, J. (2012). “2012 or Never.” Retrieved on February 26, 2013, from nymag.com/news/features/gop-primary-chait-2012-3/ • Cohen, M. (2013). ”Can Democrats Turn Texas and Arizona Blue by 2016?” Retrieved on March 16, 2013 from fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/01/can-democrats-turn-texas-and-arizona-blue-by-2016/

  20. Sources Cited • Colbert Report (2013). ”Battleground Texas, Jeremy Bird.” February 26, 2013. Retrieved on March 16th, 2013, from www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/424178/february-26-2013/battleground-texas---jeremy-bird • Dubose, L. (2012). ”The Supreme Court and the Texas Gerrymander.” Retrieved Januare 23, 2013, from www.huffingtonpost.com/lou-dubose/texas-redistricting-gerrymandering_b_1223195.html • Ebersole, P. (2013). “How redistricting foils majority rule.” Retrieved on April 9, 2013 from philebersole.wordpress.com/tag/gerrymandering/ • ESRI (2012). ArcInfo [GIS software]. Version 10.1.Redlands, CA: Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. • ESRI (2013). “GIS Dictionary, MAUP.” Retrieved on April 10, 2013 from support.esri.com/en/knowledgebase/GISDictionary/term/MAUP. • Haberman, C. (2012). “For Albany’s Latest Struggle, Blame Air Conditioning.” Retrieved March 16, 2013, from cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/the-political-effects-of-air-conditioning/ • Haman, A. (2009). “Southern States Poach Businesses Amid Downturn.” Retrieved on April 8, 2013 from online.wsj.com/article/SB124485634480511841.html • Hamilton, T.I. and Martin, G. (2012). “New Redistricting Maps Shuffle South Texas Congressional Races.” Retrieved on March 30, 2013, from blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2012/03/new-redistricting-maps-shuffle-south-texas-congressional-races/ • Huffington Post (2012). “Latinos Divided Over Texas Redistricting Agreement.” Retrieved on March 30, 2013, from www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/08/latinos-divided-over-texas_n_1332496.html • Jervis, R. (2011). “Hispanics guide huge growth in Texas.” Retrieved on March 30, 2013, from usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2011-02-17-texas-census_N.htm

  21. Sources Cited • Jones, T and McCormick, J. (2010). “U.S. Population Shift Accelerates to South, West States, 2010 Census Shows.” Retrieved on April 8, 2013 from www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-22/u-s-population-shift-accelerates-to-south-west-states-2010-census-shows.html • Latino Vote Map (2013). “Latino Influence on the 2012 Election.” Retrieved on April 8, 2013 from www.latinovotemap.org/map/ • League of United Latin American Citizens et al v. Perry, Governor of Texas, et al. (2006).“Appeal from the United States District court for the eastern district of Texas. Argued March 1, 2006--Decided June 28, 2006. Docket No. 05-204.“ Retrieved January 16, 2013, from caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/ getcase.pl?court=US&vol=000&invol=05-204 • Lucid Chart (2013). Retrieved on April 25, 2013 from www.lucidchart.com • Merriam Webster (2013). “Gerrymandering.” Retrieved on April 8, 2013 from www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/gerrymandering • National Conference of State Legislatures (2012). "Voter Identification Requirements," January 9, 2012. Retrieved on March 10, 2013, from www.ncsl.org/default.aspx?tabid=16602 • New York Times (2012). “Presidential Exit Polls.” Retrieved on May 1, 2013 from elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls • Office of the Secretary of State (2012). “1992-current election history.” Retreived on February 26, 2013, from elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist.exe • O’Sullivan, D. (2012). GEOG 586 - Geographic Information Analysis. Retrieved March 21, 2013 from www.e-education.psu.edu/geog586/ • O'Sullivan, D. and Unwin, D. J., 2010, Geographic Information Analysis, 2nd edition (Wiley, Hoboken, NJ) • Parker, R. (2013). ‘Lone Star Blues.” Retrieved on April 8, 2013 from www.nytimes.com/ 2013/02/20/opinion/getting-texas-to-go-democratic.html?_r=2&

  22. Sources Cited • Politics and Policy (2013). “Gerrymandering - Proving All Politics Is Local.” Retrieved on April 9, 2013 from politicsandpolicy.org/article/gerrymandering-proving-all-politics-local • Sacks, M. (2012). “Texas Redistricting: Supreme Court Throws Out Judge-Drawn Electoral Maps. The Huffington Post, 20 January 2012.” Retrieved on January 22, 2013, from www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/20/texas-redistricting-supreme-court_n_1218855.html • Salvanto, A. (2013). “Partisanship and the 113th Congress.” Retrieved on April 9, 2013 from www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57562053/partisanship-and-the-113th-congress/. • Silver, N. (2013a). “How Immigration Reform and Demographics Could Change Presidential Math.” Retrieved on May 1, 2013 from fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/how-immigration-reform-and-demographics-could-change-presidential-math/ • Silver, N. (2013b). “Did Democrats Get Lucky in the Electoral College?” Retrieved on March 16, 2013, from fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/26/did-democrats-get-lucky-in-the-electoral-college/ • Stewart, J. (2013). “Jon Stewart vs. Shelby County: 'Voting Rights Act Should Be Expanding Not Contracting' (VIDEO)”. Retrieved on March 30, 2013, from www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/06/jon-stewart-vs-shelby-county-voting-rights_n_2818302.html • Texas Legislative Council (2012). “District Viewer.” Retrieved on February 26, 2013, from gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/ • The Texas Tribune (2012). Census 2010 Interactive Map: Texas Population By Race, Hispanic Origin. Retrieved on April 9, 2013 from www.texastribune.org/library/data/census-2010/. • Wang, S. (2013) “The Great Gerrymander of 2012.” Retrieved on April 8, 2013 from www.nytimes.com/2013/02/03/opinion/sunday/the-great-gerrymander-of-2012.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

  23. Sources Cited • Weiser, W. R. and Norden, L. (2011). "Voting Law Changes in 2012," Brennan Center for Justice, October 3, 2011. Retrieved on March 10, 2013, from www.moveon.org/r?r=268598&id=34802-18329907-Wy3oHwx&t=4 • West, G. (2012). “Rhetoric in GOP Primary Harmful to Hispanics.” Retrieved on March 30, 2013, from www.huffingtonpost.com/gus-west/hispanic-voters-gop-primary_b_1340163.html • Wikipedia (2013a). “Politics in Texas.” Retrieved on May 6, 2013 from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Texas. • Wikipedia (2013b). “Gerrymandering.” Retrieved on April 9, 2013 from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering • Wikipedia (2012). “2003 Texas redistricting.” Retrieved January 9, 2013, from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Texas_redistricting • Yost, P. (2012). “Texas Voter ID Law Blocked By Justice Department.” Retrieved on March 30, 2013, from www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/12/texas-voter-id-justice- department_n_1339004.html

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