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Alexei Struminsky Space Research Institute Moscow, Russia July 7, 2012

Alexei Struminsky Space Research Institute Moscow, Russia July 7, 2012. Poster Reviewing SH. INTRODUCTION. SH posters – 71 papers, among them 59 papers are presented as posters + 6 posters without papers = 65 posters Instruments (3) Methods (6) SEP events (15)

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Alexei Struminsky Space Research Institute Moscow, Russia July 7, 2012

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  1. Alexei Struminsky Space Research Institute Moscow, Russia July 7, 2012 Poster Reviewing SH

  2. INTRODUCTION • SH posters – 71 papers, among them 59 papers are presented as posters + 6 posters without papers = 65 posters • Instruments (3) • Methods (6) • SEP events (15) • Forbush decreases + Short term CR variations (22) • Long term variations (16) • Heliosphere (3) • 30 min are not enough for 65 posters, so I apologize to all, who will be not mentioned

  3. Solar Activity and CR (SH) • The current cycle now is close to the maximum phase, it is similar to the 14th cycle, which is the lowest ever recorded. Ishkov (SH 446) considered main characteristics of current 24th solar cycle after three and half years of its development. • Numbers of geoeffective solar events and coronal holes are abnormally low. Mavromichalaki et al. (SH-677) presented a review of current SEP and geoffective events.

  4. INSTRUMENTS (PAMELA) • PAMELA highlight talk (Picozza, ECRS2012) • The PAMELA spectrometer is the first instrument, which directly measures the CR spectrum in near the Earth. It is very important since all previous measurements have been made by ground-based and stratospheric detectors. In this case the derived CR fluxes depend on their yield functions. • The event of December 13, 2006 was the first studied by PAMELA. The PAMELA spectra appears to be always harder in the low-energy interval than obtained from NM data. Indicating that NM yield functions are underestimated below ∼700 MeV (Adriani et al., 2011). • This result should be justified by new GLE events of the 24th solar cycle. The PAMELA spectrometer observed 8 SEP events with >100 MeV protons up to now (Bazilevskaya et al., SH-572). A detailed analysis of recorded events is in preparation and has not been presented at our conference. • Galactic cosmic ray variations (Bzheumikhova et al., SH-587) Adriani et al., 2011

  5. INSTRUMENTS (CARPET) ‏ • CARPET cosmic ray observations (El Leoncito, CASLEO, Argentina) contributed talk (Raulin et al., Id-561) • (Makhmutov et al., SH-560) 240 Geiger tubes 2550 m (31.8S, 69.3W) Rc=9.65 GV for quiet conditions and Rc=9.0 GV for Kp=4.

  6. INSTRUMENTS (Small NM) Good enough? • NM are not calibrated, the calibration campaign started in 2002. Two more calibrators with new electronics heads were built in 2011. Results were presented in poster (Kruger&Moraal, SH-481) and in oral talk of Heber (NMDB-working group). • One small NM is presently on the research vessel Polarstern of the German Polar Programe, to conduct continuous latitudinal surveys between cutoff rigidities 1 to 15 GV, for at least the next solar cycle. • The second new calibrator was installed at the Neumayer station, Antarctica for continuous monitoring of the cosmic-ray intensity. • These two new detectors have broadened the concept of a calibration NM to that of a mini NM, i.e. a permanent detector in its own right. Mini NM

  7. METHODS (NM) • NMDB (Stiegeies, SH-285), NM in real time (Lukovnikova et al., SH-332), NM algorithm (Paschalis et al., SH-636) • The counting rate, N, of a NM at cutoff rigidity, Pc, is • (1) • where dN/dPis the differential response function, j(P,t)is the primary cosmic-ray intensity above the atmosphere, andSis the NM yield function of the secondary cosmic rays at atmospheric depth x. • Yeild functions are calculated by the PLANETOCOSMICS code (Mishev&Usoskin, SH-293; and Murchev et al., SH-647) • Barometric coefficients discussed by Paschalis et al. (SH-519) • Cut off rigidities (Mavromichalaki et al., SH-652), (Tyasto et al., GEO-442)

  8. SEP events • Relatively to zero time of parent flares with solar longitudes E10-W80 solar protons of 100 MeV arrive at the same moment to the Earth, i.e. no longitudinal dependence. Increasing rate and maximum values of proton intensity is determined by the source function (Struminsky, SH-194). • According to Ochelkov et al. (SH-557) the heliolongitudinal peak intensity decrease for event with flares in the west half of solar disk practically is absent, for heliolongitudinal interval 0-30 E it is equal 30 and for heliolongitudinal interval 30-90E it is equal 100-150. • Multi-spacecraft observations of SEP events at different longitudes (STEREO A, B and ACE) were not presented at ECRS2012, hope we will see these results in the nearest future. • Response of the ionosphere to SEP discussed by Correia et al. (SH-563) support conclusion that enhancements observed by CARPET (Makhmutov et al., SH-560).

  9. GLE events • The 70th and 71st GLE events were observed on December 13, 2006 and May 17, 2012. Their time profiles coincide first 30 min relatively zero time. Maximum values are in agreement with GOES observations. • A delay of the earliest arrival time of high-energy protons at 1 AU with respect to the observed peak time of the solar bursts not to exceed 10 min in 30 events (Kurt et al., SH-292) . This result indicates that in the majority of events efficient acceleration of protons responsible for the GLE onset has to be close to the time of the main energy release in flares. • Particular cases of previous GLE’s were studied by Grigoriev et al., (SH-494); and Kravtsova et al. (SH-186). Results are not compared with investigations of other researchers! SH-292

  10. GLE events • One of practical motivations for GLE studies are estimates of radiation risk during GLE events. • Calculations of doze rate along flight roots for the GLE event of 2001 April 15 were presented by Buticofer and Fluckiger (SH-445). This investigation shows how far we are from the desired goal. • The published haracteristics of GLE60 differ considerably. As a consequence the computed radiation dose rates along flight routes do not have the desired agreement. • Improvements and/or adjustments of the different GLE analysis methods or new procedures are needed. SH-445 SH-445

  11. Forbush Decreases SH-622 • The excellent review of FD’s was already presented by Anatoly Belov in his highlight talk. The main practical reason of FD studies is a forecast of Space Weather. The current work in this direction is described by Abunina et al. (SH-622) and Gaidash et al. (SH-475). • The first significant Forbush decrease of solar cycle 24 was recorded on February 18, 2011 (Papaioannou et al., SH-666). The Forbush decrease on March, 7th, 2012 became the greatest (up to now) event of its kind in the new cycle of solar activity (Mavromichalaki et al., SH-652). • Forbush decreases are studied by the muonhodoscope (Barbashina et al., SH-574; Astapov et al., SH-605), the goal declared is to accumulate statistics for future forecast of space weather. • Since we do not have reliable numerical models, statistical studies of previous observations are very important.

  12. Forbush decreases in the Past SH-290 • Forbush decreases connected to western solar flares and accompanied by a geomagnetic storm (25 events) gathered for the time period from 1967 to 2006 have a clear signs of precursors in 15 cases (60%) (Papailiou et al., SH-529) • Relations of Forbushdecreseas to magnetic flux in dimings and arcades are considered by Chertok et al. (SH-290); and to coronal holes by Kryakunova et al. (SH-526). • Forbushdecreses in 19th cycle (Abunin et al., SH-414), 22-nd and 23-rd cycles (Kravtsova&Sdobnov, SH-186, 187); • Geomagnetic corrections are necessary (Alania et al., SH-559) SH-290

  13. Short Term Variations • Influence of a large-scale disturbance of the solar • wind on the cosmic ray anisotropy dynamics - calculations (Petukhov&Petukhov, SH-503) • Forecast of the arrival of interplanetary shocks by measuring cosmic ray fluctuations in the interplanetary medium – case studies (Starodubtsev et al., SH-525) • Diurnal (Grigoriev et al., SH-494; Gerasimova et al., SH-496) • Semi diurnal (Krymsky et al, SH-495) • Posters were not attended

  14. Long term variations (qualitative) SH-579 SH-454 • The main unresolved problem of the CR modulation of the last solar minimum is the observed energy dependence. • We have not found any features of interplanetary indices which could explain the unusual rigidity dependence of the CR modulation in the minimum of the cycles 23/24 (Bazilevskaya et al., SH-579) • The average size of the field on the Sun and the size of the polar field can be regarded as characteristics of SA leading to the extraordinary high density of CR in 2009. Their joint influence resulted in the restored CR flow in 2009, which exceeded all previous observations (Guschina et al, SH-454)

  15. Long Term Variations (numerical models) • Modern status of the long-term variations (Highlight talk by M. Krainev) • Kalinin&Krainev (SH-347); Krainev&Kalinin (SH-346); Krainev&Kalinin (SH-498). • Monte-Carlo simulations (Rozza et al., SH-489) • Available models do not describe the energetic dependence of CR variations observed.

  16. Heliosphere • Jovian Electrons (Daibog et al., SH398) • The hypothesis of magnetic traps lasting for several solar rotations is suggested, which explains long-living 27-day variations of low energy electrons. • Passing by Jupiter such a trap is filled up with electrons, continuously emitted by the Jovian magnetosphere, and retains them for a sufficient time to be registered during their passage by the Earth.

  17. Heliosphere • Heber et al. (SH-730) • Jupiterʼs rotation period (~10h) can frequently be recovered in the energy spectrum of Jovian electrons in the vicinity of the planet. However, these modulation has never been reported to exist far beyond ~0.8AU upstream from the planet. • In order to search for the 10h modulation in the heliosphere, we re-examined Ulysses data for the second Jupiter flyby. From day 143 to 147 of 2004, when Ulysses was 1.2AU away from the planet at low latitudes, a persistent 10h modulation was found • The time series of the KET/E4 (2.7-7 MeV), HET/H6 (1-3 MeV) and KET/E12 (7-170 MeV), HET/H7 (5-10 MeV) counting rates as well as the H6/H7 ratio from day 143.5 to 147 in 2004. A 10h periodicity is visible in the ratio throughout the time interval.

  18. Geography of SH Posters NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM’s are clusters of SH studies Russia Europe (Bulgaria, Finland, Italy, Germany, Greece, Spain, Switzerland, Ukraine) Asia (India, Kazakhstan) America (Brazil, Canada) Africa (South Africa)

  19. Prospects for next 2 years • Sun and Solar Activity (Solar maximum, new events) • Instruments (no new instruments) • Data processing ( the EU/FP7 project “SEPServer”, Neutron Monitor Data Base) • Modeling THANK YOU!

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