From Global Development to Human Security

1. From Global Development to Human Security The necessary policy transition Robert Picciotto

2. Why human security? Because we must get to grips with seismic changes that threaten international stability • Greater openness and connectivity = proliferation of ‘problems without passport’ • Illegal trafficking in arms, drugs, people • Control of global criminal networks has become less effective • Infectious diseases spread more readily across borders (weak link)

3. Poverty reduction has been lagging • The rules of the game of the global market handicap poor countries since scarce skills and capital are mobile across borders while labor is not. • Outside China, the worldwide number of poor people (pci < $2) has increased from 2.5 b in 1981 to 2.7 b in 2001. • Most countries will not reach the millennium development goals • The income gap between rich and poor countries has grown by over 40%

4. The worldwide move to the market has generated new insecurities • Financial crises hurt the poor disproportionately (e.g. Korea’s Gini coefficient went up from 32.6 to 37.2 following the crisis) • A majority of poor people perceive fewer economic opportunities and more insecurity than in the past • Commodity prices on which poor countries depend have suffered a secular decline • Clouds are gathering over the global economy (oil price spike, US deficits, etc.)

5. Natural disasters are growing in frequency and severity • Twice as many in the 1990’s as in the 1970’s • Higher frequency and intensity in poor countries (53% of natural disaster deaths in countries with low human development ratings that are home to 11% of people exposed to natural hazards) • Poor people are more likely to be victims of natural disasters

6. The threat of terrorism is getting worse • The number of attacks has grown more than eightfold over the last two decades • Terrorism has gone global: New York, Washington, Jakarta, Bali, Istanbul, Madrid, London, Islamabad, New Delhi, Moscow, Nairobi, Dar el Salaam, Casablanca, Tunis, Riyadh, Sharm-e;l-Sheikh, Amman. • The causes (ideological, cultural and political) are deep rooted and hard to address • Catastrophic outcomes resulting from weapons proliferation are increasingly likely

7. Violence causes huge damage • Sixty violent conflicts are being waged around the world • Almost half of them recur • They victimize civilians more than combatants • 27% of people see criminal violence as the greatest threat they face (vs. 15% for terrorism, 13% for health and economic threats and 12% for accidents and natural disasters)

8. The security equation has become more complex • Surprise and uncertainty vs. reasonable predictability (cold war) • Multiple adversaries vs. single enemy • Decentralized non-state threats vs. orderly nation state contest • Irregular, asymmetric operations vs. conventional warfare • Shifting coalitions vs. static alliances • War of ideas vs. power of coercion

9. What is human security ? It is a pure global public good: • Enjoyment by one party does not reduce its availability to others and benefits are available to all • Chronically undersupplied when left to market forces • Turns into a private good when the state is weak and loses the monopoly of violence to non state actors • Generated by collective action • Weakest link in the chain determines the level of aggregate security • Special arrangements needed to overcome free riding, information asymmetries and ensure joint oversight of best-shot public goods (e.g. for nuclear capabilities).

10. Two definitions of human security are vying for influence • UNDP/Japan: Soft security (freedom from want), i.e. natural dignity of men and women, economic security, health, education, knowledge, freedom to migrate, right to development • Canada: Hard security (freedom from fear) i.e. safety of individuals and groups, core human rights, rule of law, responsibility to protect

11. Kofi Annan’s definition • Freedom from want + • Freedom from fear + • Freedom of future generations to inherit a healthy natural environment.

12. Environmental stress breeds insecurity • competition for access to natural resources can ignite conflict among nations and groups; • deforestation, desertification and pollution push poor people towards natural disaster prone areas • global warming will create dramatic threats to ecosystems and livelihoods (sea encroachment in low lying areas, droughts, floods, species extinction, etc.)

13. Security and development policies must converge • The centre of gravity of violence has shifted to the zones of development and transition (disenchantment with war within Europe and end of the cold war) • Poverty does not directly cause conflict but state weakness, associated with poverty, leads to conflict • This is why the poorer the country the more conflict prone. • Conversely, conflict is development in reverse.

14. Engagement with fragile states is critical to human security • Intrastate conflicts are hard to contain and spill over in neighboring territories. • Failed states provide safe heavens for international terrorists and criminals • Fragile states account for a third of the world’s absolute poor.

15. Human security does not simply repackage human development. • It focuses on downside risks – due diligence and prudence (‘first, do no harm’) • It addresses both hard and soft security issues and ascertains the linkages between them • It favors quality growth over rapid, inequitable, unsustainable growth • It gives pride of place to risk management: • assessment, • prevention, • mitigation • coping and adaptation

16. Human security is not a soft analytical option or a grab bag • It combines policy coherence for development with risk analysis and results based assessment of program solutions, • It sets priorities based on probability weighted cost benefit-assessments • Where uncertainty prevails and catastrophic risks loom it concentrates on capabilities, resilience and adaptation • It eschews fear based, populist decision making through public information and democratic debate

17. What principles drive the human security agenda? Focus on coherence • Type 1: Internal • Type 2: Whole of governmen • Type 3: Harmonization • Type 4: Alignment Focus on the individual • Human rights • Responsibility to protect • Opportunity, security and empowerment

18. Manage globalisation • Aid ($77 billion, 2003) matters but it is not enough to achieve the MDGs • Merchandise exports ($1,996b, 2003) = 26 times aid levels • Remittances ($117b, 2003) = 70% more than aid and growing. • FDI ($233b) = 3 times aid levels • Cost of global warming to developing countries: 4-22% of GNI vs.7% aid.

19. The case of Bangladesh $ billion Incr. 1991 2001 % • Exports 1.7 6.0 325 • Imports 3.5 9.4 270 • Remittances 0.8 1.9 246 • FDI 0.01 0.16 1,580 • Aid 1.6 1.4 - 18 • GDP 31.0 47.8 154

20. THE VULNERABILITY-EXPOSURE NEXUS POLICY ADJUSTMENT A. LOW EXPOSURE B. HIGH EXPOSURE 1.LOW Low Risk Low Risk VULNERABILITY Low Reward High Reward 2. HIGH High Risk High Risk VULNERABILITY Low Reward High Reward CAPACITY BUILDING

21. Development priorities as if security matters • Focus on state fragility • Social safety nets • Youth employment • Food security • Access to social services • Natural resource management • Disaster preparedness

22. New emphases for aid • Aid quality: emphasize the supply side • Aid targeting: fragility matters • Aid for coherence (‘footprint’) • Conflict prevention • Security sector reform • Peace making • Conflict management • Global public goods

23. Human security requires global goals and indicators • MDG8 needs upgrading: migration, intellectual property, arms trade, etc. • MDG8+ requires precise goals and indicators • Policy coherence for development should be independently monitored and evaluated • The hard security dimension of the Millennium Declaration needs goals and indicators

24. Towards Millennium Security Goals • Goal 1. Reduce the number, length and intensity of conflicts between and within states. • Goal 2. Reduce the number and severity of terrorist attacks • Goal 3. Reduce the number of refugees and displaced persons • Goal 4. Regulate the arms trade • Goal 5. Reduce the extent and severity of core human rights violations • Goal 6. Protect civilians and reduce women’s and children’s participation and victimization in war • Goal 7. Reverse weapons proliferation and achieve progress towards nuclear, radiological, chemical and biological disarmament • Goal 8. Combat trans-national crime and illegal trafficking.