Putting the “Globe” into U.S. GLOBEC

1. Putting the “Globe” into U.S. GLOBEC New Models and Methods in Support of Integrated Climate Research Dale Haidvogel IMCS, Rutgers University dale@imcs.rutgers.edu

2. Outline 1. U.S. GLOBEC as an example of new approaches to Integrated Climate Research 2. Requirements for Pan-Regional Synthesis 3. Status and skill of end-to-end systems 4. Next steps

3. U.S. GLOBEC The principal objective of U.S. GLOBEC research is to understand and predict the effects of global climate change on ocean ecosystem dynamics

4. U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas & Principal Target Species Gulf of Alaska Copepods Euphausiids Pink Salmon Georges Bank Copepods Atlantic Cod Haddock California Current Copepods Euphausiids Coho Salmon Chinook Salmon Southern Ocean Krill

5. U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas & Physical Processes Gulf of Alaska Stratification Buoyancy-Driven Flow Downwelling Cross-Shelf Exchange Georges Bank Stratification Retention/Loss Cross-Front Exchange California Current Stratification Upwelling/Downwelling Cross-Shelf Exchange Southern Ocean Stratification Sea Ice Dynamics Retention/Loss

6. Goals of U.S. GLOBEC Synthesis • Undertake regional and pan-regional synthesis and comparisons among U.S. GLOBEC study locations and international programs to understand the impacts of climate change and variability on selected target species and marine ecosystems • Integrate process-oriented, observational, and retrospective studies through conceptual and mathematical models • Bridge the nested spatial/temporal scales of these GLOBEC program elements through modeling to understand climates-scale impacts • Develop tools needed to predict the responses of populations and ecosystems to global climate change and climate variability • Contribute to management of living marine resources in an ecosystem context

7. U.S. GLOBEC Approach to Integrated Climate Research

8. Climate Model Biases

9. SST (20 August 2000) POP ROMS NEP Grid (10 km)

10. Multi-scale modeling in the North Pacific

11. Status of Three Regional Domains Curchitser, Hedstrom, Powell, Hermann, Moore, Haidvogel † Adjoint-based assimilation

12. NEP Implementation Domain: 20 - 73N, 115 – 210E ROMS: 226 x 642 x 42 gridpoints Subdaily (6 hr) T42 CORE wind and fluxes (Large and Yeager) Initial/boundary conditions provided by CCSM-POP hindcast model Forward run for 1958-2004—includes multiple El Nino’s, regime shifts, and 2002 cold intrusion Outputs: Daily averaged physical snapshots of velocity, temperature, etc.

13. -PDO 1961-75 +PDO 1978-96 From Schwing et al. (2002) The 1976-77 Regime Shift SST Patterns Note: Left panel is May only; Right is Annual

14. Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July 1997 2000 7-8 July 2000 1998 Well defined core of California Under Current in 1997, 1998, 2000; close to slope

15. 1999 2002 9-11 July 2002 Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July Weaker, more diffuse California Under Current in 1999 & 2002; not adjacent to slope

16. Next Steps 1. Fully integrate ROMS within CCSM (underway @ NCAR) 2. Demonstration in multiple physical settings (pilot projects) 3. Engage wider community (e.g., CLIVAR, IMBER) (conference)