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Strasbourg, 14-15 September 2010

Strasbourg, 14-15 September 2010 Michael Kahn Research & Innovation Associates, Cape Town, South Africa. This presentation. New and old contexts Measuring capacity What we know & what we don’t know Our tasks. New and old contexts. New : two important milestones in 2010

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Strasbourg, 14-15 September 2010

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  1. Strasbourg, 14-15 September 2010 Michael KahnResearch & Innovation Associates, Cape Town, South Africa

  2. This presentation • New and old contexts • Measuring capacity • What we know & what we don’t know • Our tasks

  3. New and old contexts • New: two important milestones in 2010 • OECD ≈ The OECD Innovation Strategy – Getting a head start on tomorrow • UNESCO/ISSC ≈ World Social Science Report 2010: Knowledge Divides • Processes and publications in turbulent times • Face one another across an old divide

  4. “ The 2008-09 economic downturn has led to reduced potential output growth, rising unemployment and soaring public debt. To recover, countries need to find new and sustainable sources of growth …. Many countries have stagnating or declining populations and face diminishing returns from labour inputs and investment in physical capital. Future growth must therefore come from innovation-induced productivity growth. (OECD2010. Fostering Innovation to Strengthen Growth and Address Global and Social Challenges. Executive Summary. Paris: OECD)

  5. “… what went wrong was innovation in financial services which resulted in the release of attractive new products to the market. They diffused rapidly and widely and then lost value. The rest is history, a painful history for those who lost homes, savings and businesses. As the first signs of recovery appear, the question being asked is whether this can happen again?” (Gault, F 2010. Innovation Strategies for a Global Economy. Development, implementation, measurement and management Cheltenham: Edward Elgar)

  6. “… Social science expertise is in high demand by policy makers, media and the public…. But with success and growth have come criticism. It has been pointed out that few economists foresaw the economic crisis that started in 2008 and that conflicting advice has been given on dealing with it.” (WSSR, 2010. Summary. World Social Science Report 2010. Knowledge Divides. Paris: UNESCO ISSC)

  7. We do live in interesting times Mathematics gave us natural science and environmental crisis; economics and financial meltdown

  8. Invest into the recession President Obama has asked the US Congress to make the R&D tax credit a permanent law. He argues that it is not the role of government to create jobs, but that “it’s the drive and ingenuity of our entrepreneurs, our small businesses, the skill and dedication of our workers that’s made us the wealthiest nation on earth.” The proposal would increase the value of the credit to $10 billion annually. Every dollar spent on the tax credit generates two dollars of economic activity in the US, said Rey Ramsey, president and CEO of TechNet, a lobbying group representing tech CEOs. The Information Technology Industry Council estimates that the new tax credit will create 160,000 jobs and generate $17 billion in additional tax revenue. Sources: http://techdailydose.nationaljournal.com/2010/09/obama-expand-the-research-and.php; http://www.pcworld.idg.com.au/article/359997/obama_calls_permanent_r_d_tax_credit/

  9. Unattained MDGs • Climate change and resource pressure • Fragile economic systems • Globalization • Unfolding ICT revolution; nascent bio and nano • Ageing populations in the North • Safety and security in a multi-polar world The challenge for SHH is great; what do we know of its capacity to meet existing & future challenges?

  10. Measuring capacity • … “(One notes) the scarcity of data needed for the comparison of research capacities and for the assessment of strategies in different parts of the world, especially in the social sciences. There is an urgent need for data-gathering to support these comparisons and analyses.” (WSSR, 2010) • Measurement is theory laden - R&D measurement linked with economic growth – commensurability? • Innovation involves SSH - Non-R&D activities e.g.design, training, seeking new markets; information exchange; change in the knowledge bases on which capabilities rest.” • US engineers spend 10% of time on R&D; 13% on design; management 19%; balance on other services

  11. WSSR (1999) Covered 29 OECD member states Sought to quantify scale of inputs; graduates; Frascati Manual R&D definition and collection guidelines SS R&D financials for 21 countries; personnel data for 19 – excludes large systems: FR, US, UK, KR, and smaller - CZ, GR, IT, LX, NZ, SL. Commentary on the practice of SS; notes ‘Data … often not very accessible to researchers”; identifies blurring of SS/H boundary as problem

  12. WSSR 1999

  13. WSSR 2010: Can we do better? WSSR 2009/10: OECD 30; EU-27 + other large performers Financials; equity; People including gender; Student enrolments and graduates Scientific publications Main sources: OECD, Eurostat, UNESCO Institute for Statistics. RICYT (Latin America); national organizations; commercial databases

  14. ESF OECD definition agree; UNESCO education =outside; national bodies ‘do it my way’

  15. Issues: What counts as R&D Frascati 6th Ed 2002: ‘creative work undertaken on a systematic basis in order to increase the stock of knowledge, including knowledge of man, culture and society, and the use of this stock of knowledge to devise new applications’ Recognizes increasing role of Services sector Basic, applied research, experimental development Related STAs excluded Clinical trials; software development … IN Much Social Science activity OUT

  16. Problems • BERD difficult to track and trace purposive survey • SS often excluded from BERD: “designed out” • SS important in Services; >60% GDP • R&D in Services 40% BERD in AU; 25% UK • R&D tax incentives may exclude SS • HERD and GOVERD by census; • NPO purposive – boundaries porous • FTE “must” be < 100%; estimation; diary studies • Doctoral, postdocs, research assistants, masters – FTE?

  17. What we know & what we know we don’t know 25: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Turkey, Mexico, Chinese Taipei, Japan, Singapore, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden 17 EU; 20 OECD Of top five R&D performing nations, only DE and JP have official data

  18. OECD, 2006 (MSTI 2009/1) Little change since 1999

  19. The need for estimates Large performers missing: FR, UK, also FI. Newcomers more compliant? Why?

  20. Comments on the data What is underlying purpose of the data collection? Access to data is pivotal: what is possible in Brazil or France or South Africa may be impossible elsewhere FTE of Researchers is patchy; costly; estimates contested Student data more robust What counts as a publication? Propensity to publish varies by discipline Mobility data is weak

  21. Our Tasks • What must we know on research capacity in SSH? • Who wishes to know? • What is available and who holds the data? • What must be collected vs ‘nice to have?’ • What constitutes a minimum data set for international benchmarking? Feasibility? • What effort needed to obtain more complete input data? What are the restrictions on data access? • Prospects for more complete bibliometric data? • Next steps, especially in relation to WSSR?

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