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NIAM meeting, 23-24 March 2009

NIAM meeting, 23-24 March 2009. Jan Aben. Selected topics. Dutch baseline compared to Current Policy CC policy and effects on AQ Effects of credit crisis Attainability of new PM 2.5 standards Ammonia deposition modelling Comparison of SRMs (EMEP, Lotos-Euros). Updated baseline (BGE).

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NIAM meeting, 23-24 March 2009

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  1. NIAM meeting, 23-24 March 2009 Jan Aben

  2. Selected topics • Dutch baseline compared to Current Policy • CC policy and effects on AQ • Effects of credit crisis • Attainability of new PM2.5 standards • Ammonia deposition modelling • Comparison of SRMs (EMEP, Lotos-Euros) NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  3. Updated baseline (BGE) • Global Economy (GDP: + 2.9%/yr) • Primes Energy Scenario (oil price: 60-70 $/barrel) • CO2 price: 35 €/ton • Set and envisaged policy • Limited additional climate policy after 2012 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  4. Europe and world wide policies • Euro 5 for LDV • Euro 6 for LDV (as of 2014) • EURO VI for HDV • Fuel Quality Directive for inland shipping and mobile machinery • Sea shipping measures (IMO) NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  5. Specific Dutch policies Set policies • SO2 emission limits for E-production and refineries • Air washers for emissions from animal housings • Air ticket tax Envisaged policies • Sharpened emission limits for medium combustion plants • PM emission limit for industry • Road pricing NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  6. Comparison of BGE with Current Policy Emission target for industry ? NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  7. NOx emission in 2020 per sector NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  8. Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  9. Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  10. Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  11. Credit Crisis leads to significant reductions in final demand *) CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), 2007 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  12. Attainability of PM standards - Legislation • EU Air Quality Directive 2008: 4 standards for PM2.5 • Exposure Reduction target (ERT) is the most stringent standard • ERT depends on Average Exposure Indicator (AEI) in 2010 • 15% reduction if AEI in 2010 < 18 µg/m3 • 20% reduction if AEI in 2010 > 18 µg/m3 • Uncertainty about ERT for NL because AEI for 2010 is near 18 µg/m3 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  13. Attainability of PM standards – Results • Dutch emissions: BGE-baseline • Foreign emissions: Amann (2008) • AEI in 2010: 16.1 µg/m3 • ERT of 15% is likely attainable, attainment of ERT of 20% would require additional NL and EU measures beyond EP ambitions • Model bias: 6 - 7.5 µg/m3 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  14. Ammonia deposition modelling NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  15. Model improvement NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  16. Change in NHx deposition moles N per ha per yr -30% NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  17. Comparison of SRMs • SRMs calculated with Lotos-Euros • For emission reductions (-15%) SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC and PM2.5 in BEL, GER, FRA, GBR and NLD • Same base emissions as used by EMEP • Effect on primary and secondary PM2.5 concentrations studied for BEL, DEU, FRA, GBR and NLD • SRMs compared to SRMs derived with EMEP model (v2.8 and v3.0) NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  18. Same country mean values, but different contributions NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  19. Comparison of EMEP with Lotos-Euros NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  20. Thank you for your attention NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

  21. Contacts • Baseline: Pieter.Hammingh@pbl.nl • Synergy of CCP: Pieter.Hammingh@pbl.nl • Attainability of ERT: Jan.Matthijssen@pbl.nl • Ammonia Modelling: Hans.vanJaarsveld@pbl.nl • SRMs: Jelmer.Cnossen@pbl.nl • Credit Crisis: Eric.Drissen@pbl.nl • General: Jan.Aben@pbl.nl NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

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