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JRC MARS activities on Crop Monitoring Present and Future prospects

JRC MARS activities on Crop Monitoring Present and Future prospects. Olivier LEO, Acting Head of Unit MARS http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu /. New technologies in agriculture?. Information Needs and Challenges.

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JRC MARS activities on Crop Monitoring Present and Future prospects

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  1. JRC MARS activities on Crop Monitoring Present and Future prospects Olivier LEO, Acting Head of Unit MARS http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

  2. New technologies in agriculture?

  3. Information Needs and Challenges EU has a unique experience of science and innovation in support to Agriculture governance Thanks to the conjunction, at the end of the 80’s, of Strong information requirements Need to define pan- european methods and standards (progressively extended from 12 to 27 Member states) Availability of news technologies: Remote sensing, ITC and Geomatics ( GIS, GPS…) … and to a close collaboration between EC Services (AGRI –JRC) on the “MARS” Program initiated in 1988

  4. EC manage Common market Organisation(s) and need timely yield forecast to coordinate EU MS and propose appropriate decisions (intervention funds) Global Agriculture markets entered in a status of high volatility since Mid 2006 Overall tension due to low stocks increasing demand and possible climatic risks in the main cereals belts Global markets very nervous a few month before main harvests Crucial need of independent reliable short term forecast Information Needs and Challenges Low stocks Russian embargo Highstocks • Graph courtesy from DG AGRI

  5. USDA decreases estimates Russia declares embargo UKR declares export quota Raising concerns for Russia / Black Sea drought

  6. Summit of G 20 Ministers of Agriculture - Paris, 22-23 June 2011 FR- G20 Agriculture and price Volatility • A detailed Action Plan, incl. 2 initiatives to increase market transparency - Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) by FAO + WB , IFPRI and all- Global Agriculture Monitoring (GAM) by GEO Community of practice

  7. FR- G20 Agriculture and price Volatility • The EC, as Member of the G20 signed the declaration and the Action plan on Agriculture price volatility • DG AGRI strongly supports the 2 Initiatives on market transparency • Improve EU timely information on stocks for AMIS • AGRI front line • Sharing MARS and GLOBCAST results with other stakeholders, as a contribution to GEO –GLAM • JRC H04 • Position included in the draft EC Report to EU Council and Parliament (August 2011)

  8. ► Qualitative Info Campaign monitoringin SPACE and TIME ►Quantitative Info Link to biophysical parameters MARS crop monitoring system Remote Sensing infrastructure General design Meteorological infrastructure Crop model infrastructure Statistical infrastructure Related data bases Crop yield forecasts

  9. General Data /information Chain of Crop Monitoring Expert analysis & reporting Crop Monitoring Yield forecast Early Warning Ex : JRC-MARS, FEWSNET, USDA FAS CCAS, IKI, etc * Response or Policy Analysis (Agriculture, Trade, Food Security) Ex : DG AGRI, EEAS-ECHO USAID , USDA FAO, WFP FSNAU * Operational Pre & post-processing EO & crop models Ex: MARS –OP G2 BIOPAR USGS , etc * Data providers EO Land Climate Atm circ. models + Ground Meteo Ex: SPOT , ESA NASA, ECMWF OMM * Research and system development

  10. General framework MARS crop monitoring EarthObservation DG. AGRI DG TRADE ECHO EFSA ESTAT EEAS DG. DEVCO DG ENTR GMES Crop simulation Meteo (obs. /forecast) Cropmonitoring Stakeholders and Partners Research Services Support Yieldforecast UN FAO, WFP FOOD SEC AGRI4CAST Area estimates USDA, FEWSNET Climatechange impact MARS Crop monitoring system Global data infrastructure Collaborative Agreements with US, BR, Arg, China, KZ, Mo.; UA, CRA, RCMRD, SOW-VU NL Earlywarning 30 staff GEO Community of Practice 1.5 Mio €/ Y MARS OP (1-2-3) ALTERRA VITO MeteoConsult, GISAT NRT Acquisition and processing 10-15 staff Visualization tools / DB

  11. Use of MARS Bulletins by DG AGRI 23 Monitoring or crop forecast bulletins (2011) Discussed in Outlook Committees meetingsResults are integrated in DG AGRI CROPS NEWSLETTER with Market price and global trade analysis

  12. MARS GLOBCAST Project General objectives a feasibility Study to cover the globe 4 Zones of the world main crops of interest: Wheat, barley, rice, maize, rape seed, soybean, sugar cane • Monitor the impact of weather in the main grain producing areas • Produce short-term forecasts GLOBCAST is a feasibility study currently conducted for DG AGRICULTURE

  13. Feasibility Study GLOBCAST • Study Content (Phase -2011) • Conceptualize the system (DB, models, tools) • Run pre-operational tests • Assess the possible implementation within an enlarged operational MARS system • Develop of a roadmap for a future implementation of GLOBCAST, in the new context of G20 GAM GLOBCAST main elements of a model and data driven Decision Support System GLOBCAST is a feasibility study currently conducted for DG AGRICULTURE

  14. Method based on RS + derived parameters Cumulated values along different parts of the growing season at NUTS 2 (region) level within Arable Land Regression against NUTS2 Official yield figures

  15. Sharing MARS Data / Model Infrastructure • MARS global information infrastructure , • Co funded by DG AGRI and JRC • Partly outsourced ( MARS OP ALTERRA VITO Consortium) • Combines Multi sources (Meteo, EO, ECMWF models)… • with specific crop development & statistical models ....

  16. MARS Viewer provides online access and query to CGMS databases and models outputs The system is already since 2011 regularly used by 6 FAO GIEWS Analysts Sharing MARS Data / Model Infrastructure • ... and efficient user (analyst) interface

  17. Linking information to decision The best information has no value without an appropriate link with decision Need of legitimate information And consensus making process In Case of crisis, The IPC (Integrated FS Phase Classification) is a interesting example in the sense it is implemented by a global technical partnership including 7 key organizations: UN (FAO , WFP), Donors (USAID-FewsNet, EC-JRC) NGOs (CARE, Oxfam, Save the Children). IPC provides a logical framework to classify and map the severity – extension of food insecurity situations and provide information for decision support. Analysis is based on an evidence- based, well documented, consensus building approach among technical food security experts …

  18. Possible Way Forwards - Future Milestones • As far EU partnership is concerned (27 MS incl 4+1 G 20) • MARS CGMS expert meeting 21-22 November • Add on event with EU Experts ? • Pilot and road map for EU pasture and forage quantitative Forecast (March 2012) • Final report of GLOBCAST 1 • Discussion on senarii and implementation road map • (May June 2012) • MARS Conference 20 years of Bulletins (2nd Half 2012) • Bring together High EU Policy level AGRI DEVCO and EU MS

  19. Possible Way Forwards - Future Milestones • As far Globe is concerned • Review of use of MARS data system by FAO GIEWS and WFP • (12 November TBC) • 3rd CRAM Conference JRC-FEWSNET FAO • (Nairobi Sept 2011) • Side GEO JECAM and Training • How will we react together in the next crisis… • ie a major climatic event affecting one of our key Cereal Belts? • Inputs to the Rapid Response FORUM ?

  20. Thanks for your attention !

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