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Understanding Later-Life Mobility: Trends and Challenges for Aging Boomers

This research explores the complexities surrounding later-life mobility and aging in place, with a specific focus on the Baby Boomer generation. It highlights how traditional housing market indicators may fail to capture genuine mobility trends and proposes a methodology using longitudinal data from the American Housing Survey (AHS) to uncover deeper insights. The study also critiques the shortcomings of census data in reflecting real mobility patterns and suggests strategies for understanding the dynamics of aging homeowners, including the impacts of the Great Recession on mobility choices.

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Understanding Later-Life Mobility: Trends and Challenges for Aging Boomers

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  1. AHS and Later-Life Mobility Miranda Dietz & Larry A. Rosenthal Goldman School of Public Policy UC-Berkeley

  2. Motivation:Aging-In-Place and Real Estate Markets • Boomers Are Different! No Sun City for Us • Hunch: Census Data Too Shallow To Capture Genuine Mobility Trends • Exploration: Can AHS Longitudinal Structure For Housing Units Shed More Light?

  3. Strategy For Capturing Mobility In AHS • Ask All Householders in 2009:“When Did You Move In To This Place?” • Believe Their Answer! (Trust Recollection By Year) • More Important: Trust Recollection By Month • Problem: Don’t Know How Long Current Respondent Will Stay In The Future (“Right Censoring”) • Solution: Use Prior Biannual AHS Draws, By Unit, To Observe Completed Stays (“Backtracking”) • Concern: We Might Be Undersampling Short Stays (E.g., Arrivals-Departures Between Surveys)

  4. “Backtracking”

  5. AHS Mobility: Different Story

  6. Average Durations (HH-ers Over 40)

  7. Dispersion of Duration (HH-ers Over 40)

  8. Median Durations by Generation (Movers and Non-Movers)

  9. Comparing Movers and “Stayers”

  10. Mobility Over Age 40

  11. Example of Life Table (Duration of Stay)

  12. Closing Thoughts • Mobility vs. “Aging-In-Place”:AHS Provides A Unique Glimpse • Causes For Later-Life Duration Choice:More Complicated • Boomers Constrained By Reduced Savings, The Great Recession, AndThe Changing Nature of Work • Additional Research: • Generation-Mixing (“Hosting”) • Retirement vs. Continuing Labor-Market Attachment

  13. Thank you. http://urbanpolicy.berkeley.edu

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