Interagency Study on Cocaine Trafficking & Consumption in Brazil Presented to Embassy Country Team 19 August 2002
Study requested by Linear Committee and US Interdiction Committee fall 1999. Over one hundred consultations with law enforcement officers, health officials, academics, and addicts; many meetings engaged scores of participants. Participating agencies: CNC, ONI, NAS, DIA, DEA HQ/Brasilia/Sao Paulo. Background Brazilian Piper Saratoga Cargo ship at Base Anzol, near Tabatinga Brazil
Areas of Brazil Visited • April-May 2000, team visited Brazil’s Northeast, Amazon Basin, & West. • July 2000, team visited Brazil’s Central West, South, and Southeast. • During 1998 & 1999, team members visited a number of BR/BO and BR/PA border towns. Team visited 25 cities throughout Brazil.
Trafficking Conclusions • 90 – 110 MT of pure Cocaine base and HCl entered Brazil in 2000. • Brazilian traffickers quickly adapted to lower Bolivian supplies by developing new routes. • New shipments from Colombia (of HCl) and Peru (mostly base) largely compensated for slashed supplies from Bolivia. Brazilian traffickers often fly cocaine into the country via the Amazon to its dry border with Paraguay.
Sources of Brazilian cocaine flow • Colombia: Accounted for 50-60 MT in 2000, most by air with much of that via Paraguay and Suriname. • Peruvian cocaine accounts for 20-30 MT of deliveries to Brazil, with much of that transiting Bolivia. • Bolivia is increasingly becoming a transit country for Peruvian cocaine. • Suriname increasingly a transit country for Colombia Cocaine to Brazil & Europe • Some of the flow through Paraguay: involves arms-for-cocaine swaps.
Sao Paulo: Hub of Brazilian Trafficking • Most cocaine moves to the major markets in Sao Paulo and Rio. • Cocaine arrives in Sao Paulo by air and land mainly from Paraguay, Mato Grosso do Sul, or Mato Grosso. • Hub for both international trafficking—onward though Southeastern ports—and to supply large domestic markets.
Cocaine Consumption in Brazil Based on a number of methodologies we concluded that Brazilians consumed 35 – 50 MT of pure cocaine in 2000.
Consumption Conclusions Cocaine use has increased steadily since 1980. • Cocaine use is particularly heavy along the traditional trafficking corridor. • Cocaine use accelerated in the 1990s with the popularization of crack beginning in Sao Paulo. • Since 1995 crack use has spread south to Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. • Crack use has not spread to Rio de Janeiro, but Rio is the second largest market in Brazil.
Trends in cocaine consumption • Crack use is up, but cocaine HCl is still the most popular way to use cocaine. • Most Brazilians choose HCl over crack because they have the education and personal support systems to understand the enormous risks of using crack. • Crack is more socially destructive because it is so highly addictive and leads to violent behavior. • The good news is cocaine injecting is off sharply, because of increased AIDS awareness and the growing crack abuse.
Lesson Learned from the Collapse of the Bolivian Coca Crop in 2000 The cocaine supply was down in 2000 but very difficult to detect because it was masked by changes in purity 1998 Situation: Most Cocaine from Bolivia
Exports from Brazil Of the 90 to 110 MT of cocaine entering Brazil, we assess 35 to 70 MT per year are exported. Up to 10 metric tons is exported to the United States. Most cocaine leaves Brazil via maritime conveyance, with some of that leaving via the Amazon. Containerized port facilities, Manaus, Brazil
Key Findings Brazil faces a substantial cocaine threat: 90-110 MT Flow 35-50 MT Consumption 35-70 MT Exports Large by any account! Brazilian mobile inspection station, Base Anzol, Amazon River, Brazil
No Quick Fixes Improvements in interdiction in Colombia and the Caribbean will encourage more exports through Brazil. As we learned from the emergence of Beira Mar, the domestic market will continue to be fed. Sunset over port in Rio, Brazil
Worldwide Cocaine Consumption Presented to Embassy Country Team 19 August 2002
US Cocaine Consumption US Cocaine Consumption Persons twelve and older who have used cocaine in the last month, or last year, 1979-2000 Millions Last year • Last month Source: US National Household Survey, SAMSHA
European Market Maturing European Market Maturing • The dramatic increase in cocaine seizures in non-US markets outside of the Source Zone indicates a growing world markets outside the US. • Press and other estimates indicate that Europeans consume 100 to 150 metric tons of cocaine each year. • There is also substantial cocaine consumption in Canada, Australia, South Africa, and Nigeria, with at least small amounts in virtually every country in the world.
Survey data indicate the past-month consumption of cocaine more than doubled in Bolivia and Peru during 1992-98. CNC estimates that Latin Americans consume over a 190 metric tons of cocaine and another 40 metric tons of HCl equivalent in coca leaf. Latin America, Most Dynamic Market Percent of adults who used cocaine HCl or base/crack within the past year, by country.
Countries with highest annual prevalence for cocaine base/crack use
Countries with highest annual Cocaine Consumption(Metric Tons; 1998, 2000)