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Economy?

Environment?. Economy?. Balance of Energy and Environment 11 th 5 YrsPlan in China. C. S. Kiang September 9, 2008 Prague. Chairman Peking University Environment Fund. Population Growth 1950-2006 population increase > Last 4 million years

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Economy?

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  1. Environment? Economy?

  2. Balance of Energy and Environment 11th 5 YrsPlan in China C. S. Kiang September 9, 2008 Prague Chairman Peking University Environment Fund

  3. Population Growth 1950-2006 population increase > Last 4 million years population increase Economic Growth GDP of the year 2000 > GDP of the entire 19th century

  4. 人类纪时代Anthropocene ——人类正在改变地球(Paul Crutzen)

  5. Resources & Consumption China has 22% of the world’s population with limited natural resources • 1/3 of world average level Cultivated land; ¼ of water; 1/5 of forest service; 1/10 of oil and 1/22 of world average level of natural gas • Yet China consumes 1/8 of the oil, 44% of cement, 31% of coal, 31% of crude steel, 25% of aluminum; • 6.6% of global GDP (2006).

  6. Rapid Urbanization Generates Severe Environmental Problems Economic Cost of Air and Water Pollution GDP 5-7% Quality of Life & Environmental Health of 460 million population in Urban Environment

  7. Environmental Problems Interconnect Through Interface Matter Exchange SO2,NOx, NH3, VOC NH4+, NO3-, SO42- Oxidant (PAN, O3)，particulate PAH，PCB，organic pesticide Atmosphere – Biosphere Exchange Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Carbon Source Organic Matter Nutrient Salt Heavy Metal organic pollutant bottom mud Hydrophytic Ecosystem

  8. Prediction for China Energy Development

  9. Main features of Energy Development of China in the first half of 21 century: • Sharp increase of Demand: • -energy consumption per capita in 2003 was 1.2 tons Standard Coal • - 2020 will be 2.0 tons. • - 2050 will reach 3.0 tons. • Coal as most important Primary Energy: • - 2003 67% of total energy consumption • - 2050 40% of total energy consumption • *Annual production will become stable at around 3 billion t after 2020. • Ensuring oil supply is the key to energy security of China: • -2003 imported oil 35% of total oil consumption. • *domestic oil production stable at around 0.18 billion tons per year • -2050 imported oil will reach a height of 78% of total oil consumption. • Large scale development of Renewable energy : • 2020 renewable energy is expected to amount to 15% • 2050 renewable energy is expected to amount to 30%

  10. Six Strategic Areas of Development: • High-efficiency low-pollution coal-fired Power Generation • Bio-fuel & other liquid fuels for oil replacement • Energy saving- alternative fuel and electronic automobile • Electrification rail transportation • Large scale renewable energy generation • Fast-growing plants for bio-fuel & H-generation from solar energy

  11. Preventing the Tragedy of the CO2 Commons Source: Warwick J. McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, Wing Thye Woo, Preventing the Tragedy of the CO2 Commons: Exploring China’s Growth and the International Climate Framework. Brookings Global Economy and Development. 2007

  12. Global economic and demographic changes from 0 A.D. to 2003 A.D.

  13. Share of the world GDP

  14. Share of the world Population

  15. China’s share of global energy consumption and CO2 emissions 1990-2030

  16. Comparison of projections of energy consumption, China

  17. Energy consumption by source, China, 1980-2005

  18. Chinese GDP growth in purchasing-power parity

  19. Energy (1000 BTU) per unit of GDP (purchasing-power parity)

  20. Projections of CO2 emissions by fuel type, China, 1990-2030

  21. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, 2004 and 2030

  22. China CO2 emissions from energy Source: Warwick J. McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, Wing Thye Woo, Preventing the Tragedy of the CO2 Commons: Exploring China;s Growth and the International Climate Framework. Brookings Global Economy and Development. 2007

  23. Electricity Generation Unit: Billion KW Source: International Energy Agency http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_time_series.cfm?fips=CH#elec

  24. Electricity Source, 2006 Data source: China Statistics Yearbook 2007 http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2007/indexch.htm

  25. China Carbon Emission Unit: Million Metric Tons Source: International Energy Agency http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_time_series.cfm?fips=CH#elec

  26. ENERGY EFFICIENCY in China 1/5 of US 1/10 of Japan

  27. China’s 11th 5-Year Plan

  28. 2010 Energy Consumption per GDP reduce 20% Main Pollutant reduce 10% 2020 Renewable Energy rise to 16% Three Goals

  29. Building (15%)

  30. Building Features of China • Existed Building area： • 40 Billion m2 (residence: 32 Billion m2) • Newbuilding in next 15 years: • 20 Billion m2 • World Bank: • Half of world New building will be in China • Half of China’s building be built after 2000 • Only 0.1 Billion m2 was low energy consumption building in 2 bullion m2 building in 2003

  31. Energy Consumption of Buildings • Building Energy amounts to 27.6% of Total Energy Consumption . • Building Material Energy Consumption amount to 16.7%. • In 2003, there were 2 Billion m2 new buildings--- only 5% had Energy Saving measures • There will be more than 2 Billion m2 buildings in next five years. Large Energy Demand

  32. Energy Assessment Industrial Sectors Power Plant with CCS Cement Plant Crude Steel Building & Construction Chemical Industries Transportation Systems

  33. CDM (Clean Development Mechanisms) Climate “Exchange”

  34. August 5,2008 Beijing Environ-Exchange Shanghai Exchange

  35. CCX – Chicago Climate Exchange International Standard Validation, Audition, Monitoring capacity building Consulting and training system Technology import and Innovation China Climate Exchange- policy recommendation

  36. Technology Innovation Management Innovation Institutional Innovation Intellectual Property Transparency Cultivate Innovation Culture KNOWLEDGE BASED ECONOMIC DEVELOPEMNT

  37. Knowledge Based Economic Development • Innovation • Transparency • Intellectual Property • Ruled by Law

  38. CHALLENGES Energy Price Carbon Sequestration Systematic Changes – System Reform Small and Medium Enterprise Environmental and Intellectual Property Protection Innovative Culture Extension Service to Local & Provincial levels Leadership Development for Changing world

  39. Chinese gasoline and diesel prices rose by less than 10% in 2007, • (News report, “Domestic oil products prices increase” (inChinese); • http://finance.sina.com.cn/focus/youjia2007) • when global oil price nearly doubled. • Moreover, in January 2008, the Chinese government decided • to freeze energy prices in the near term, even as international • crude oil futures have continued to surge • (New York Time,Jan.9,2008)

  40. Energy Efficiency Forum • April28/29, 2008

  41. Beyond 2020 Vision 50 Years Energy Plan 50 Years Water Plan 50 Years Human Resources Development Plan 50 Years International Strategy (non-traditional)

  42. The Best Time to Plant a Tree was hundred years ago; The second best time is Today! A Chinese Old Saying

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