Main tendencies and mathematical models of energy problems

1. Main tendencies and mathematical models of energy problems • Contents: • Consumption of primary sources and energy • Production of primary energy sources • Perspectives of energy demand growing • Energy balance • Price for energy • How much energy does it need • Nuclear Energy (reality and potential)

2. Primary energy resources consumption(global aspects) Growing of primary energy sources consumption in XX century. Population change in ХХ century.

3. Primary energy resources consumption in developed and in developing countries

4. Variants of energy consumption convergence Specific energy consumption change in developed and in developing countries in dependence on convergence scenarios. a – convergence on specific consumption of primary energy sources by 2016, b – convergence on specific consumption of primary energy sources by 2050.

5. Primary energy production

6. Electricity and Heat (3800mtoe) Industrial &Household Transportation 1830 mtoe (4500 ) mtoe 3700 мtoe 2400 мtoe 2200 мtoe 1100 мtoe 690 мtoe 300 мtoe Biomass& waste Coal Gas Renewable Nuclear Oil Energy consumption structure

7. Annual production of hydrocarbons (assessment of production dynamics,peaking factor) Proved oil resources in different countries all over the world [Energy Information Administration(2006)]

8. Annual hydrocarbon production (assessment of production dynamics, peaking factor) Oil production in USA To determine parametersandGo Oil production in England

9. When the peak of oil production happens.

10. Comparisons

11. Energy and GDP

12. Energy export in goods form • Energy import in goods form • Primary energy sources consumption • Primary energy sources import • Primary energy sources production • Export of primary energy sources Energy exchange between countries Goods of primary production stage Goods of final consumption. Primary energy

13. Energy needs in different goods production

14. Main equation of connection of GDP and energy Two kinds of goods: 1- low additional value (primary production stage – steel, aluminum, fertilizers, cement…) 2- goods of final consumption (cars, electronics, wear…) Interval solution for a lot of countries allows to determine K1 andK2 under conditions

15. Determination of cost of goods of two kinds

16. Energy consumption for two kinds of goods production

17. Contribution of two kinds of goods in GDP

18. Primary sources and energy consumption

19. Primary sources and energy consumption

20. Dynamics of prices for two kinds of goods relation

21. EnergyBalance for Russia Oil, Gas, Coal 547 mil. toe Russia 1176 mil. toe World Al , steel, chemical fertilizersat all 210 mil. toe Total exports of energy(65%)

22. Energy saving Average rate of GDP energy efficiency growing 0.8% for 1% GDPannually

23. Auction model of price establishment Alone customer A lot of customers

24. Prognostic oil cost Prognoses of IEA

25. Oil cost ( crisis of 2008)

26. Share of primary energy in GDP

27. Dynamics of relation of two groups of goods prices

28. Prognostic calculation of primary energy resources production, population growth in different countries Data bases on production and consumption of primary energy resources, GDP, population of different countries all over the world Structural scheme of DES mathematical model Calculation of primary energy resources consumption, group of goods production taking into account restrictions for primary energy resources in GDP, GDP calculation 1)Prognosis of dynamic relation of К1/K2 2)Calculation of energy sources prices

29. Structure of Dynamic Energy System(DES) code Heat Elect Energy Water Thermal H2 Gas Coal Oil Hydro Nuclear Renewable Solar, Wind, Biogas Isotopes Fuel for transportation Base position DES code for the analysis of full energy system development.

30. How much energy does it takes 40-50 mlrd. toe

31. Nuclear energy(Necessary scale ) Close to maximum 2030 – 8% in fuel balance 2050 –10% in fuel balance

32. Thanks for your attention

33. Tendency of energy consumption convergence Relation of average energy consumption in two groups