Embedded and Defective Democracies in the 21rst Century Wolfgang Merkel

1. Embedded and Defective Democracies in the 21rst CenturyWolfgang Merkel Bratislava 4/3/2008 EXU Excelentná Univerzita

2. Contents • Liberal, Semi- and Illiberal Democracies • The Concept of Embedded Democracy • The Partial Regimes of ED • Internal Embeddedness • External Embeddedness • Defective Democracies • Types • Causes • Profiles 4. Trajectories of Defective Democracies

3. The change in the number of formal democracies (1800 – 2004) Source: Freedom House, 2003 (http://www.freedomhouse.org/reports/century.html), Diamond 1997, with modifications by AC. Formal democracies: the principle positions of political power are filled through regular, free, and fair elections between competing parties, and it is possible for an incumbent government to be turned out of office in those elections.

4. Figure 1: Types of Democracies 2004

5. Formal and Liberal Democracies in the 3rd Wave Liberal democracies are political regimes that encompasses not only electoral competition for power (= formal democracy) but also basic civil liberties (freedom of belief, expression, organization, demonstration) rule of law, independent judiciary, pluralistic civil society, and civilian control over the military. Sources: Larry Diamond, Is the Third Wave Over (Vienna: IAS, 1997); Larry Diamond, A Report Card on Democracy (Hoover Digest, 2000, No. 3).

7. Formal and Liberal Democracies in the World: Geographical Distribution N = 120, Source: Diamond, A Report Card.

9. Social and economic requisities Civil society Stateness Civil rights Political liberties C B Electoral regime A D E Ho rizontal Effective power Civil Liberties accountab ility to rule Figure 2: The concept of embedded democracy

10. The Partial Regimes of the Embedded Democracy • The Electoral Regime • Political Rights • Civil Rights • Horizontal Accountability & Rule of Law • Effective Power to Govern

11. Internal Embeddedness • Mutual Embeddednes • Normative and functional Interdependence • Normative and functional Independence

12. External Embeddedness • Socioeconomic Context • International Context • Civil Society

13. Types of Defective Democracies • Exclusive Democracies • Domain Democracy • Illiberal Democracy • Delegative Democracy

14. Diminished Subtypes of Democracy • Defective Democracies are diminished subtypes of liberal democracy: liberal democracy • universal suffrage (Exclusive) • effective power to rule (Domain) • rule of law (Illiberal) • horizontal accountability (Delegative)

15. Political Regimes in East-Central / Southeastern Europe and CIS (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova) Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung (2006) Notes: The classification is based on the index „Democracy“; „10“ is the best and „1“ the worst possible rating in this index.

17. Causes of Defective Democracies • Path of Modernization • Level of Modernity • Economic Trends • Social Capital • Civil Society • State and Nation Building • Type of Autocratic Predecessor Regime • Political Institutions • International & Regional Context

18. Economic Explanation N = 176 Low-income country: Real GDP per capita (PPP$) < $1,500, Medium-income country: Real GDP per capita (PPP$) > $1,500, <$6,000 High-income country: Real GDP per capita (PPP$) >$6,000, Source: Author’s calculations based on data from Freedom House 2003, http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2003/democracies.pdf<, Freedom House 2002, >http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2002/socialindicators.pdf<

19. Democracy in the World & Ethnic Heterogeneity N = 183, High degree of ethnic heterogeneity: Ethnic Fractionalization Index > 0.6199, Medium degree of ethnic heterogeneity: Ethnic Fractionalization Index < 0.6199, > 0.3099, Low degree of ethnic heterogeneity: Ethnic Fractionalization Index < 0.3099, Source: Author’s calculations based on data from Freedom House 2003, >http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2003/democracies.pdf<; Alberto Alesina et al., Fractionalization. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper (Cambridge, MA, 2002), >http://www.nber.org/papers/w9411<.

20. Religion and Democracy N = 188 Source: Author’s calculations based on data from Freedom House 2003 (http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2003/democracies.pdf); CIA World Factbook (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/fields/2122.html

21. Freedom House Report 2008

22. General Trends: 2008 • Global negative trend • 20% of all states: lower scores (CR;P.R.) • 2nd subsequent year: negative trend • 38 countries: neg. trend; 10 countries: pos. trend • Deep Autoc. Regions (Maghreb, Middle East; Central Asia: no positive signs • Increased islam fundamentalism • Rent economies prevent democratization • Electoral Democracies: 121 (63% of all countries) • Many El.Dem.: high corruption, low effectiveness, ruleof law weakness>> Defective Democracies

23. Regional Development: 2008 • Asia: 6 states (25%) are free; 9 are unfree; rest partly free; Indian sub-continent: negative trend (Pak, Sri L., Banglad.,Afgh. • Russia: neg. trend; influence on the neighbours gets stronger • Middle East: pos. trend is over • Latin Am.:positive, but still unstable: corruption, criminality, inequality • Africa: neg. trend; i.a.: Nigeria, Kenya as imp. states

24. Trends 2008 • According to the survey’s findings, the year 2007 was marked by a notable setback for global freedom. • The decline was most pronounced in South Asia, but also reached significant levels in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. • It affected a substantial number of large and politically important countries—including Russia, Pakistan, Kenya, Egypt, Nigeria, and Venezuela—whose declines have wider regional and global implications. • Furthermore, results for 2007 marked the second consecutive year in which the survey registered a decline in freedom, representing the first two-year setback in the past 15 years.