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Risk PowerPoint Presentation

Risk

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Risk

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Risk • Risk is the product of • Probability that something will go wrong And • Severity of its consequences • How to reduce risk? • Reduce probability that something will go wrong • Reduce severity of consequences

  2. Technical Risk ManagementTRM • TRM 4-step Methodology • Risk Identification • Risk Assessment • Risk Mitigation • Risk Monitoring

  3. Risk Identification • Risk Identification is best done as a group • Identify the desired outcome • Use brainstorming methods to identify risks • Continue until no more risks are identified

  4. Risk Assessment • Risk Assessment • What are the odds of the risk event occurring • Rare • Unlikely • Possible • Likely • Frequent

  5. Risk Assessment • Risk Assessment • What are the consequences of the risk event • Catastrophic • Severe • Marginal (not severe but significant enough) • Negligible • In design projects, the consequences are usually in terms of time, budget, and product meeting PDS targets.

  6. Risk Scoring Matrix

  7. Risk Assessment • Levels of Risk • Extreme – Do not accept level of risk • High – Do not accept level of risk • Medium – Mitigate if resources allow • Low - Accept

  8. Risk Mitigation Plan • Reducing the probability of failure • More knowledge  Less Risk • More accurate assessment • Analysis • Simulation • Experimentation • Published studies, statistical data • Design changes

  9. Risk Mitigation Plan • Reducing consequences of events • More accurate assessment of consequences • Analysis • Simulation • Experimentation • Published studies • Design Changes

  10. Example • Assessment: • Bolt failure for a fuel tank is initially a probable event and its consequences are catastrophic. • Mitigation • Detailed analysis shows it is extremely unlikely. • Further investigation shows consequences are not as severe as initially perceived. OR • Select higher strength or larger bolts • Add features to contain damage in case of failure

  11. Example • Risk • Magnets stuck to the disk may fly off • Probability: High • Consequences: Severe injury or death • Risk Assessment: Extreme

  12. Example • Mitigation (Reducing odds of the event) • More accurate assessment of forces and probability of magnets flying off at maximum 1000 rpm • Conclusions: Very unlikely • Design Changes • Add screws or other retaining parts • Use epoxy • Add speed sensors and automatic cut off

  13. Example • Mitigation (Reducing consequences) • More accurate assessment of consequences • Remains catastrophic • Reducing consequences of the event • Add an enclosure • Operate remotely