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Preliminary Verification

Preliminary Verification. 1-tier vs. 2-tier MME Forecast against Observed. May 17, 2012. SST forecast and Obs for FMA 2012. Correlation (w.r.t. map average) G 0.32 (0.44) T 0.41 (0.42) Uncentered Correlation (w.r.t. clim average): G 0.32 (0.41) T 0.29 (0.33)

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Preliminary Verification

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  1. Preliminary Verification 1-tier vs. 2-tier MME Forecast against Observed May 17, 2012

  2. SST forecast and Obs for FMA 2012 Correlation (w.r.t. map average) G0.32 (0.44) T0.41 (0.42) Uncentered Correlation (w.r.t. clim average): G0.32 (0.41) T0.29 (0.33) || || 1-tier 2-tier FMA 2012 SST Forecast from Jan FMA 2012 SST Obs anom (deg C)

  3. Verification: G: globe T: tropics RPSS: G -0.152 (-0.083) T -0.191 (-0.116) Rate of Return: G -0.088 (-0.043) T -0.089 (-0.044) Heidke skill: G -0.088 (-0.058) T -0.094 (-0.046) GROC: G 0.546 (0.551) T 0.635 (0.612) FMA 2012 temp tercile categ OBS FMA 2012 temp 1-tiered Forecast from Jan

  4. Verification: G: globe T: tropics RPSS: G 0.021 (0.004) T 0.047 (0.012) Rate of Return: G 0.017 (0.003) T 0.042 (0.015) Heidke skill: G 0.113 (0.046) T 0.191 (0.074) GROC: G 0.567 (0.529) T 0.606 (0.550) FMA 2012 precip tercile categ OBS FMA 2012 precip 1-tiered Forecast from Jan

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