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2011 Budget Overview

2011 Budget Overview. Overview. Economic Environment and Major Influences on 2011 Budget . Unemployment. March 2007 – 3.3% March 2008 – 3.8% March 2009 – 5.7% March 2010 – 5.5%. Inflation (Year to Year). March to March CPI: 2007 – 2.8% 2008 – 4.0% 2009 – (0.4%)

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2011 Budget Overview

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  1. 2011 Budget Overview

  2. Overview Economic Environment and Major Influences on 2011 Budget

  3. Unemployment March 2007 – 3.3% March 2008 – 3.8% March 2009 – 5.7% March 2010 – 5.5%

  4. Inflation(Year to Year) March to March CPI: 2007 – 2.8% 2008 – 4.0% 2009 – (0.4%) 2010 – 2.3%

  5. Sales Tax1st Quarter Collections Includes town and city share of collections YearAmountChg 2006 $ 9.9 mil 2007 $10.3 mil (+ 4%) 2008 $11.5 mil (+12%) 2009 $10.4 mil (- 10%) 2010 $10.4 mil ( 0%)

  6. Temporary Assistance January Caseloads: 2007 – 773 2008 – 715 2009 – 763 2010 – 850 +11% in past year +19% in past 2 years

  7. Food Stamp Cases January Caseloads: 2007 – 2,917 2008 – 2,964 2009 – 3,495 2010 – 4,254 +22% in past year +44% in past 2 years

  8. Medicaid Eligibles September Caseloads: 2006 – 10,417 2007 – 10,075 2008 – 10,598 2009 – 11,490 + 8% in past year +14% in past 2 years

  9. 2011 Budget Drivers • Pension costs • Health benefits • Other fringe benefits • Temporary Assistance • Medicaid • Other mandates • Capital • Insurance reserve

  10. Pension Costs Factors: • Expected rate hike • From 11.5% in 2010 to 16.1% in 2011 • Rate applied to 2010 wage base • Inflated by potential Road Patrol arbitration award

  11. Pension Rates(Actual and Projected) Tier 4 Rate (% of Payroll) 2007 – 9.7% 2008 – 8.8% 2009 – 7.9% 2010 – 11.5% 2011 – 16.1% 2012 – 20.3% 2013 – 23.5%

  12. Pension Costs 2011 Estimate $ 6.7 mil 2010 Budget $ 4.6 mil Increase $ 2.1 mil Local Share 70% 2011 Local Dollar impact $1.5 mil Property tax effect: +3.9%

  13. Employee and Retiree Health Factors: • Cannot assume Consortium savings • 11% vs. 7% increase in 2010 • 9% increase estimated for 2011 • 2010 baseline budget under-estimated

  14. Employee and Retiree Health Impact 2011 Estimate $ 8.6 mil 2010 Budget $ 7.3 mil Increase $ 1.3 mil Local Share 70% Local Dollar Impact $ 0.9 mil Property tax effect: +2.4%

  15. Medicaid Factors: • 3% increase in cap • Potential Stimulus (FMAP) aid not recognized Federal passage not certain If approved, use as a hedge against unforeseen circumstances

  16. Medicaid Local Dollar Impact 2011 estimate $ 11.6 mil 2010 budget $ 11.2 mil Local Dollar Impact $ 0.4 mil Property tax effect: +1.1%

  17. Economic Security Factors: • Temporary Assistance (welfare) caseload increases • Services to family and children

  18. Economic Security Local Dollar Impact 2011 estimate $ 5.3 mil 2010 budget $ 4.8 mil Local Dollar Impact $ 0.5 mil Property tax effect: +1.3%

  19. Capital Local Dollar Impact 2011 estimate $ 5.3 mil 2010 budget $ 4.8 mil Local Dollar Impact $ 0.5 mil Property tax effect: +1.2%

  20. Other Factors: • Other mandates $131,000 • Insurance reserve $125,000 Property tax effect: +0.6%

  21. Unallocated Revenues Local Dollar Impact 2011 estimate $ 33.6 mil 2010 budget $ 32.4 mil Local Dollar Impact $ 1.2 mil Property tax effect: -3.4%

  22. Use of Fund Balance Local Dollar Impact 2011 estimate $ .0 mil 2010 budget $ 1.1 mil Local Dollar Impact $ 1.1 mil Property tax effect: +2.7%

  23. Stated Risks • Assumes no reduction in State Aid • Assumes $500,000 in sales tax growth over 2010 projection • State approval of Mortgage Tax

  24. Summary

  25. Detailed Review: Expenditures

  26. Spending Categories • Fixed Costs • Mandates • Automatic Payments • Locally Controlled Costs • Mandated Responsibilities • Discretionary Programs and Services

  27. Spending Hierarchy

  28. Fixed Costs

  29. Fixed Costs - Mandates 2011 Estimate $21.9 mil 2010 Budget $20.8 mil 2011 Impact +$1.1 mil 0%

  30. Medicaid Temporary Assistance Preventive and Protective Services Pre-K & Early Intervention Assigned Counsel Outside Colleges Mental Health Hospitalization: Incompetent to stand trial Jail Board-outs Fixed Costs - Mandates

  31. Fixed Costs - Automatic Payments 2011 Estimate $15.8 mil 2010 Budget $15.5 mil 2011 Impact +$ 0.3 mil 0%

  32. Insurance Reserve Capital Program Facilities – Utilities and Rent Contingent Fund TCAT Jail TC3 History Center Public Safety Communications Maintenance Fixed Costs - Automatic Payments

  33. Spending Hierarchy Fixed Costs • Mandates • $21.9 mil • 29% of total • Automatic • $15.8 mil • 21% of total

  34. Locally Controlled Costs

  35. Locally Controlled - Mandated Responsibilities 0% 2011 Estimate $10.2 mil 2010 Budget $ 9.9 mil 2011 Impact +$ 0.3 mil

  36. Health Department Planning & Coordination (CSN & Health) Environmental Health Physically Handicapped Children Vital Records Weights and Measures Social Services District Attorney Probation Intake&Investigation Planning & Coordination Sheriff Civil Assessment County Clerk Records Management County Clerk Justices & Constables Elections Personnel Locally Controlled - Mandated Responsibilities

  37. Locally Controlled – “Discretionary” 2011 Estimate $27.9 mil 2010 Budget $25.5 mil 2011 Impact + $ 2.4 mil 0%

  38. Emergency Response Road Patrol Facilities Maintenance Highway Public Library Mental Health Youth Services Information Technology Office for the Aging County Administration Agencies Locally Controlled – “Discretionary”

  39. Spending Hierarchy Locally Controlled • Mandated Responsibilities • $10.3 mil • 14% of total • “Discretionary” • $27.9 mil • 37% of total

  40. Total Local Dollar Costs Summary:Fixed $37.7 milLocally Controlled$38.2 mil Total $75.9 mil "Discretionary"

  41. Maintenance of Effort

  42. If Addressed by Spending Cut: Budget Gap $ 3.9 mil Local Controlled Spending $38.2 mil % Reduction in Spending 10.3% Maintenance of Effort If Addressed by Tax Increase Budget Gap $ 3.9 mil Levy $38.3 mil % Increase in Property Tax 10.2%

  43. Major Assumptions • Fringe rate increase of 21% in 2011 • Flat roster • FMAP (Stimulus) will not continue • No State aid cuts • No increase in sales tax or room tax rates

  44. Major Assumptions • Mortgage Tax Authorized • No increases for TC Agency cost of living adjustments. • No increase in commodity costs (inflation) • No growth for TC3 and Public Library

  45. Recap: Budget 2010 Budget: Tax Rate: $6.00 Tax Levy Increase: 4.0% 2011 Maintenance of Effort Budget: Tax Rate: $6.70 Tax Levy Increase: 10.2%

  46. Scenarios

  47. 2011 Budget Overview

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