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2010 - FLAX WHAT NOW?

2010 - FLAX WHAT NOW?. Weber Commodities January 11, 2010 Saskatoon, SK. Agenda. 2009 2010 Trade Issues Weather Outside Influences. Best sell signal – EVER! . 2009 – FLAX A Look Back . What a ride! $20.00 Flax in 2008 Naysayers fall silent.

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2010 - FLAX WHAT NOW?

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  1. 2010 - FLAX WHAT NOW? Weber Commodities January 11, 2010 Saskatoon, SK

  2. Agenda • 2009 • 2010 • Trade Issues • Weather • Outside Influences

  3. Best sell signal – EVER!

  4. 2009 – FLAX A Look Back • What a ride! • $20.00 Flax in 2008 • Naysayers fall silent. • Good yields – Good prices – How can anything go wrong? • What…Me Worry?

  5. Flax – 2009/10 Crop Year • Acres up 151,000 to 1.709 million • Carryout to 550,000 MT versus 227,000 last year • Low Carryout was in 1997/98 at 41,000 MT • High Carryout was in 1982/83 at 465,000 MT

  6. Flax – 09/10 Crop Year • Production increase of 8% from last year to 930,000 MT • Exports to decrease 150,000 to 450,000 MT • Avg. price to decease from $500.00 last year to $300.00 - $400.00 this year

  7. Flax – 10 Year Yield

  8. Marketing Your Flax • Flax is one of the few grains we can affect as a country • Will never divorce too far from the oilseed complex – yet • Better chance affecting the flaxseed market than we will the canola market against 125 MMT of South American beans

  9. Flax – 09/10 Crop Year

  10. Flax – European Bids

  11. Flax versus Canola

  12. Flax – European Prices

  13. Flax – European Prices

  14. Flax – 09/10 Crop Year

  15. Flax – Timing Sales

  16. Flax Exports • World production: 2 and 3 MMT since the 1930’s • Canada has a 40% share of world production • 80% share of exports • China, United States, India and the FSU largest production areas after Canada

  17. Flax Exports/Deliveries • Exports to Jan. 03/10 – 196,300 • Exports last year 01/03 329,900 • Deliveries to Jan. 03/10 – 290,300 • Deliveries last yr 01/03 - 250,200

  18. Flax – 10 Year Seeded Acres

  19. Flax is still THE next crop

  20. Flax Fiber

  21. Linseed Oil

  22. Flax Fiber

  23. External Issues 2009/10 • 1) Tree Huggers • 2) Trade • 3) EU • 4) Japan

  24. Just the Flax! • One year Flax marketing program to help farmers • Supply/Demand = Price • Price comparisons • Imports/Exports • Stocks to Use ratios • Weather • Better marketing decisions

  25. 2010 –El Nino? CDN Effect Winter Temps > normal Rain south #1 < normal Snow cover less than normal

  26. Weather - 2010/11

  27. Weather - 2010/11

  28. U.S. Drought Monitor

  29. Crude Oil

  30. Ocean Freight

  31. Canadian Dollar

  32. Economic Turmoil "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." Thomas Jefferson

  33. Questions

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