Nidal Salim , Walter Wildi Institute F.-A. Forel, University of Geneva, Switzerland

1. Impact of global climate change on water resources in the Israeli, Jordanian and Palestinian region Nidal Salim , Walter Wildi Institute F.-A. Forel, University of Geneva, Switzerland curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

2. Regional map of North Africa and Meadle East curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

3. Main Topics 1. Introduction and objectives. 2. Climate and variations in climate. 3. Water Resources. 4. Trend relation between climate change and water resources . 5. Impact 6. Vulnerability. 7. Conclusions and Results 8. Recommendations. curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

4. The study area is • divided into three • main geographical regions: • Coastal area • Mountain area • 3. Desert area curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

5. Schematic diagram of the Water Cycle, combination of climatic parameters and water resources curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

6. Rainfall geographical distribution curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

7. Average monthly rainfall, potential evaporation, and average daily maximum and minimum temperatures for three different geographical regions 1. Coastal area 2. Mountain area. 3. Dessert curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

8. Groundwater resources : the 20 basins curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

9. Observed annual precipitation (top) and temperature (bottom) changes for the Middle East/Arid Asia region. Precipitation tends to be very seasonal; in the Middle East countries. Temperature shows a real increase trend curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

10. 4. Observed trend in climate • 1. Precipitation: Trend to a decrease in some areas and an increase in others. Almost stable, combined with some features: • markedly increased in intensity. Alpert et al. (2000) • Increased frequency of extreme weather events • increased seasonal variability due to a decrease in the (T max and T min, respectively). • Shortened rainy season • 2. Temperature:A spatial analysis shows warming (Ben-Gai et al. 1998a, 1999). • 3. Evapotranspiration: a trend of decreasing was measured in the eastern Mediterranean. And a trend of increasing measured in the whole land area. curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

11. Water Level of the Dead Sea • The water level monitored continuously since 1930. • Declined over 21 m from 1930 to 1997. curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

12. Groundwater level trend (1982-98) – Mountain area 255 250 245 240 235 Water level (m) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 55 50 45 40 Water level (m) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

13. Groundwater level trend (1982-98) – Desert area 740 735 730 725 Water level (m) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 740 735 730 725 720 Water level (m) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

14. Changes in precipitation behavior attests to the sensitivity of systems to climate change in the following forms. • The increased rainfall intensity will increased surface run-off. • Increasing the frequencies and intensities of surface run-off events, causing: • topsoil erosion and loss of water • further loss of vegetation and higher run-off events • Reduced infiltration rates which will also reduce aquifer recharge and water availability. curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

15. Changes in precipitation behavior attests to the sensitivity of systems to climate change in the following forms (continued): 3. Increased run-off, coupled with sea level rise lead to the creation of swamps and Salt water intrusion. 4. A decrease in the hydraulic slope between drainage systems (or streams) and sea level reduces the efficiency of water transfer and increases the probability of flooding. 5. changes in land use and vegetation significantly reduces the permeability of the underlying soil. Arid region could experience large decrease in runoff of up to 40% in some basins. curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

16. Source and use of water curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

17. Source and use of water curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

18. Source and use of water curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

19. Conclusion • Traditionally, water resources systems are designed on the assumption that the statistical characteristics of the prevailing climatic and hydrometeorological processes never change stationary). It is absolutely necessary that future projects are designed, and all projects are operated, taking into account the fact that climate is non-stationary. • Climate change influence is completely dependent and it will not be easily studied seperated by other factors like climate, landuse, landcover, water cycle and anthropogenic factor. • The dominant hydrological characteristic of the area is the combination of aridity and uncertainty. curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005

20. Recommendations • Hydrology:requires better understanding of the impact of climate change on reservoirs and aquifers. • Assessing water demandrequires better understanding of climate change impacts on soil, vegetation, natural and agricultural ecosystems. • Hydrological as well as socio-economic studies • attempting to predict the gap between supply and demand should not only incorporate social, demographic and political changes, but also the impacts of climate change curriculumin natural environmental science, 2005