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Quantifying nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S.

European WRF-Chem User Workshop 2019. Quantifying nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. M. Eckl 1 , A. Roiger 1 , J. Kostinek 1 , H. Huntrieser 1 , C. Knote 2 , Z. Barkley 3 , K. Davis 3.

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Quantifying nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S.

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  1. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 European WRF-Chem User Workshop 2019 Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. M. Eckl1, A. Roiger1, J. Kostinek1, H. Huntrieser1, C. Knote2, Z. Barkley3, K. Davis3 1German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute ofAtmosphericPhysics, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany2Ludwig-Maximilians-University (LMU), Meteorological Institute, 80333 Munich, Germany3The Pennsylvania State University, Department ofMeteorologyandAtmospheric Science, University Park, PA 16802, US 07 May 2019

  2. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Nitrous oxide (N2O) in the atmosphere: • N2O asa greenhouse gas • (Myhre et al./IPCC AR5, 2013) • after CO2and CH4thethirdmostimportantlong-livedgreenhouse gas Dominant ozone-depletingsubstance (Ravishankara et al., 2009) Relevance: • Global concentration(AGGI, 2018): • Risingsinceindustrialization (~20%) • State 2017: 329.7 ppbv Global concentration Globallyaveraged N2O concentrations; (THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI), Spring 2018) (Global N2O budgetof 2006; following IPCC AR5, 2013) Lifecycle: Anthropogenic – 39% Natural – 61% Stratosphericloss (nearlyexclusively) Sources Sinks Lifetime: ca. 121 years Atmosphericchemistry 3%

  3. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Correctionfactorsfrom top-down studies (agriculturalemissions in the U.S.) N2O – bottom-up vs. top-down: • Inventoriesfrom • bottom-upestimations: • EDGAR v4.3.2 (0.1° x 0.1°, yearly/monthly) • GEIA (1.0° x 1.0°, yearly) • DLEM; process-based (32km x 32km) Talltower + STILT: Talltower+ WRF-Chem Aircraft + STILT • Limited amountof top-down studies (measurementsarechallenging) • Nearlyexclusively: Talltowermeasurements + Lagrangian model • Inventoriesenormouslyunderstimateagricultural N2O emissions

  4. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O)emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Anthropogenic N2O emissions in the U.S.: https://act-america.larc.nasa.gov/ • Atmospheric Carbon & Transport – America (ACTA): • Fall 2017 • 23 flights • ca. 120 flighthours • N2O in-situ measurements (QCLS) C130

  5. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O)emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Flask Strategy and example: Flight: 10 Oct 2017 in-situ N2O [ppbv] altitude [km] Comparableto Barkley et al., 2017: Simulation with WRF-Chem + emissioninventory Adjustinventory so thatitrepresentsthemeasurements Lifetime N2O: 121years → passive tracer (chem_opt = 14) GOAL: Correctionfactorforinventories Aircraft N2O [ppbv] N2O emissions[kg km-2 yr-1]

  6. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O)emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 WRF-Chem setup: Focus • Version: 4.0.2 • Initial conditions: NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) • 32 x 32 km • 29 pressurelevels • 3-hourly • FDDA: • D01: analysisnudging, surfaceanalysisnudging, obs. nudging • D02: obs. Nudging • Observations: NCEP ADP global surface/upperairobservations + OBSGRID Domain setup: ACTA flight:10 Oct 2017 D01; Δx = 9km D02; Δx = 3km two-waynesting • Chemistry: • passive tracer(chem_opt=14) • emissions: EDGAR + anthro_emiss (https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/wrf-chem/wrf-chem-tools-community#download) → emissionfiles

  7. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Simulation: 09 Oct 00:00 - 12 Oct 00:00 Simulation performance: Flight: 10 Oct 2017 altitudeabove MSL [km] wind speed [m s-1] D02 aircraftmeasurements In-flightmeasurementsofmeteorologicalquantities Simulation performance WRF altitudeabove MSL [km] wind direction [°N] D02

  8. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Agricultural emissions: altitudeabove MSL [km] D02 N2O measurements ca. 7 ppbv ca. 0.3 ppbv WRF tracer [ppbv] [Δppbv] Flight: 10 Oct 2017 D02 Factor: 7 ppbv/ 0.3 ppbv = 23.3 (???) Simulation: 09 Oct 00:00 - 12 Oct 00:00

  9. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Agricultural emissions: altitudeabove MSL [km] D02 N2O measurements WRF tracer [ppbv] [Δppbv] Flight: 10 Oct 2017 D02 • Looks like: • Simulatedagriculturalplumesspatiallycoincidewithmeasured N2O enhancements • Concentrationsofsimulatedplumesaremuchtoolow N2O mea-sure-ments [ppbv] WRF tracer [ppbv] altitudeabove MSL [km] verticalcrosssectionalongtheflighttrack Simulation: 09 Oct 00:00 - 12 Oct 00:00

  10. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Are just agricultural emissions relevant? Monthlysummed EDGAR emissionrates in domain D02 D02 EDGAR emissionsector (percentageof total emissions): ACTA 2017 tonsmonth-1 agriculturalsoils indirectemissions fromagriculture roadtransportation power industry 2010

  11. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Are just agricultural emissions relevant? In WRF: multi-tracer run (chem_opt=15) EDGAR emissionsector (percentageof total emissions): Flight: 10 Oct 2017 D02 altitudeabove MSL [km] WRF tracer concentration [ppbv] measurements [ppbv] Simulation: 07 Oct 00:00 - 11 Oct 00:00

  12. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Spinup time? Flight: 10 Oct 2017 Simulation: 09 Oct 00:00 - 12 Oct 00:00 D02 Spinup time: ca. 1.5 days N2O measurements altitude [km] Flight: 10 Oct 2017 Simulation: 07 Oct 00:00 - 11 Oct 00:00 WRF tracer D02 N2O measurements altitude [km] WRF tracer [ppbv] [Δppbv] Spinup time: ca. 3.5 days [ppbv] [Δppbv]

  13. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Summary & Outlook • Initial situation: • N2O is an importantgreenhouse gas (majoranthropogenicsource: agriculture) • Bad datasituation/someinventories (whicharemuchtoolow) exist Aircraft-based N2O measurements overthe U.S. ACT-America 2017: Strategy: Simulation with WRF-Chem + emissioninventory Adjustinventory so thatitrepresentsthemeasurements (N2O as passive tracer) → GOAL: Correctionfactorforinventories Simulatedagriculturalplumesspatiallycoincidewithmeasured N2O enhancements but theirconcentrationsaremuchtoolow • Questions: • Are just agriculturalemissionsrelevant? • Spinup time? • Outlook: • Analyse wholecampaign • ACT-America2019: June-July

  14. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Literature: Ravishankara, A. R., J. S. Daniel, and R. W. Portmann, 2009: Nitrousoxide (N2O): the dominant ozone-depletingsubstanceemitted in the 21st century. Science 326(5949), 123-125, doi: 10.1126/science.1176985 Myhre, G., D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréon, W. Collins, J. Fuglestvedt, J. Huang, D. Koch, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lee, B. Mendoza, T. Nakajima, A. Robock, G. Stephens, T. Takemura and H. Zhang, 2013: Anthropogenicand Natural RadiativeForcing. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contributionof Working Group I totheFifth Assessment Report oftheIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdomand New York, NY, USA. Miller, S. M., E. A. Kort, A. I. Hirsch, E. J. Dlugokencky, A. E. Andrews, X. Xu, H. Tian, T. Nehrkorn, J. Eluszkiewicz, A. M. Michalak, and S. C. Wofsy, 2012: Regional sourcesofnitrousoxideoverthe United States: Seasonalvariationandspatialdistribution. Journal ofGeophysical Research 117, D06310, doi:10.1029/2011JD016951 Kort, E. A., J. Eluszkiewicz, B. B. Stephens, J. B. Miller, C. Gerbig, T. Nehrkorn, B. C. Daube, J. O. Kaplan, S. Houweling, and S. C. Wofsy, 2008: Emissionsof CH4and N2O overthe United States and Canada based on a receptor-orientedmodelingframework COBRA-NA atmosphericobservations. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L18808, doi:10.1029/2008GL034031 Chen, Z., T. J. Griffis, D. B. Millet, J. Wood, X. Lee, J. M. Baker, K. Xiao, P. Turner, M. Chen, and J. Zobitz, 2016: Partitioning N2O emissionswithinthe US Corn Belt using an inverse modelingapproach. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles, 30, 1192-1205, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005313 Fu, C., X. Lee, T. J. Griffis, E. J. Dlugokencky, and A. E. Andrews, 2017: Investigation ofthe N2O emissionstrength in the U. S. Corn Belt. Atmospheric Research, 194, 66-77 Barkley, Z. R., T. Lauvaux, K. J. Davis, A. Deng, N. L. Miles, S. J. Ricardson, Y. Cao, C. Sweeney, A. Karion, MK. Smith, E. A. Kort, S. Swietzke, T. Murphy, G. Cervone, D. Martins, and J. D. Maasakkers, 2017: Quantifyingmethaneemissionsfromnatural gas production in north-eastern Pennsylvania. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13941-13966, doi: 10.5194/acp-17-13941-2017

  15. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Additional

  16. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O)emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 WRF-Chem setup: Focus • Version: 4.0.2 • Initial conditions: NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) • 32 x 32 km • 29 pressurelevels • 3-hourly • FDDA: • D01: analysisnudging, surfaceanalysisnudging, obs. nudging • D02: obs. Nudging • Observations: NCEP ADP global surface/upperairobservations + OBSGRID D01; Δx = 9km ACTA flights: 10 Oct 2017 11 Oct 2017 Domain setup: D02; Δx = 3km two-waynesting • Chemistry: • passive tracer(chem_opt=14) • emissions: EDGAR + anthro_emiss (https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/wrf-chem/wrf-chem-tools-community#download) → emissionfiles

  17. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Simulation: 09 Oct 00:00 - 12 Oct 00:00 altitudeabove MSL [km] Agricultural emissions: N2O measure- ments D02 Flight: 11 Oct 2017 WRF tracer [ppbv] [ppbv] D02 WRF tracer [ppbv] • Looks like: • Simulatedagriculturalplumesspatiallycoincidewithmeasured N2O enhancements • Simulatedplumesaremuchtoolow N2O measure-ments [ppbv] altitudeabove MSL [km] verticalcrosssectionalongtheflighttrack

  18. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 D02 – Flight: 10 Oct 2017 Horizontal curtain: WRF tracer [ppbv] Measure-ment [ppbv] latitude Simulation: 09 Oct 00:00 - 12 Oct 00:00 600m above MSL @ 17:40 longitude altitudeabove MSL [km] D02 N2O measurements Flight: 10 Oct 2017 WRF tracer [ppbv] [ppbv]

  19. > European WRF-Chem User Workshop > Eckl, M. • Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture in the mid-west of the U.S. > 07 May 2019 Simulation: 09 Oct 00:00 - 12 Oct 00:00 Simulation performance: Wind direction [°N] Wind speed [m s-1] Aircracft Altitude [km] Altitude [km] WRF WRF Aircracft Flight: 10 Oct 2017 Wind speed [m s-1] Wind direction [°N] Altitude [km] Altitude [km] verticalcrosssectionalongtheflighttrack verticalcrosssectionalongtheflighttrack

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