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30 years of Medical Statistics What has changed and what hasn’t

30 years of Medical Statistics What has changed and what hasn’t. Mike Campbell University of Sheffield. Sheffield Probability and Statistics 1973. Paper tape circa 1971. Punch card - in use until 1979!. Computing 1976. DIY Fortran, Algol ‘Batch mode’ SPSS BMDP ‘Language’ Genstat

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30 years of Medical Statistics What has changed and what hasn’t

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  1. 30 years of Medical StatisticsWhat has changed and what hasn’t Mike Campbell University of Sheffield Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  2. Sheffield Probability and Statistics 1973 Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  3. Paper tape circa 1971 Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  4. Punch card - in use until 1979! Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  5. Computing 1976 DIY Fortran, Algol ‘Batch mode’ SPSS BMDP ‘Language’ Genstat Interactive Glim, Minitab Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  6. Developments in computing Commodore Pet/Apple (1978) Basic IBM PC 1981 BBC Computer 1981 Specially written stats packages for BBC Computer SPSS PC 1989 Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  7. Burwalls 1985 Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  8. Important books and papers Armitage P (1971) Statistical methods in medical research Nelder JA and Wedderburn RWM (1972) Generalized linear models JRSSA Cox DR (1972) Regression models and life tables JRSSB Breslow NE (1984) Extra-Poisson variation in log-linear models. Appl Stat Bland M and Altman (1986)Method of agreement Lancet Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  9. New techniques that have had a big effect on the practice of medical statistics Bootstrap (Efron 1979 JASA) (extension of Fisher’s permutation methods) Random effects (Laird and Ware, 1982 Biometrics) Ordinal models (McCullagh, 1980 JRSSB) Multi-level models (Goldstein , 1987) Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  10. Techniques no longer used ANOVA Probit analysis Discriminant analysis Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  11. Other developments New journals Statistics in Medicine (1981) Biostatistics (2001) Pharmaceutical Statistics (2002) New Societies Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry (1977) International Society of Clinical Biostatistics (1980) Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  12. Career developments Teachers of Medical Statistics (Burwalls, 1980) Statistical refereeing for BMJ (1984) and Lancet (?1990) Also many other journals now recognise use of statistical referees Examinations for Royal Colleges Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  13. What has stayed the same T-tests Chi-squared tests Teaching medical statistics Problems with method comparisons Communicating statistics Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

  14. Survival 1976 Possible to ‘know’ most of medical stats 2006 Specialization For an applied statistician can learn more from newsletters of software packages than from journals Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006

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