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Transportation Priorities are Changing: The Context

Transportation Priorities are Changing: The Context. Megaregions+Metroprosperity: Sustainable Economics for the Texas Triangle Houston, Texas Sep. 24, 2009. Creating a 21 st Century Vision for Transportation. Reconnecting America (co-chair)

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Transportation Priorities are Changing: The Context

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  1. Transportation Priorities are Changing: The Context Megaregions+Metroprosperity: Sustainable Economics for the Texas Triangle Houston, Texas Sep. 24, 2009

  2. Creating a 21st Century Vision for Transportation

  3. Reconnecting America (co-chair) Smart Growth America (co-chair) AARP Action! For Regional Equity America Bikes American Public Health Association (APHA) Apollo Alliance LOCUS: Responsible Real Estate Developers and Investors National Association of REALTORS National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO) National Housing Conference Natural Resources Defense Council PolicyLink Surface Transportation Policy Partnership (STPP) Transit for Livable Communities (TLC) US PIRG Executive Committee

  4. Historic Context: The era of suburbanization One era ends, another begins

  5. The Halcyon Days Before Suburbanization

  6. World War II: Austerity Measures

  7. Post War Prosperity: Marketing the American Dream

  8. Post War Prosperity: Marketing the American Dream

  9. “Abundant sunshine, fresh air, fine green parkways will blend together seamlessly with dazzling skyscrapers and seven-lane highways.”

  10. “We are pushing ahead with a great road program, a road program that will take this Nation out of its antiquated shackles of secondary roads… It will be a nation of great prosperity, but will be more than that:  it will be a nation that is going ahead every day… The expanding horizon is one that staggers the imagination.” — October 29, 1954

  11. Intent: 40,000 miles in 20 years. Today: 47,000 miles-plus Source: FHWA

  12. Unstated motto: Death to pedestrians …

  13. The context for future growth and development Economic, environmental, demographic and cultural trends

  14. National Priorities: Concern over oil dependency sky high High priorities:69% - Dependency on oil68% - Health care costs64% - Education62% - Jobs and the economy56% - The war in Iraq56% - Public safety45% - Global warming and climate change Which of the following national issues do you consider a priority? After each one, please indicate if it is a low, medium, or high priority for the country? Are there any other national issues that were not mentioned that are high priority to you? If so, what is the issue? Source: Dec. 2007 Nat’l Survey, Harris Interactive

  15. Both personal and national security at stake, Americans say Source: Dec. 2007 Nat’l Survey, Harris Interactive • 93% agree - Our country needs to reduce our dependence on oil and find renewable sources of energy • 92% agree - Gas prices are likely to rise higher and higher in the coming years

  16. Adding “fuel” to an existing trend “The housing boom encouraged the development of far-flung suburbs, contributing to longer commutes. Now developers are building more walkable neighborhoods close to city centers and public transit, and Americans are beginning to migrate back toward their workplaces, city planners and other experts say.”

  17. Dropping vehicle miles travelled (VMT) Estimated Miles Driven by Region (in millions) Region Sept. 2007 Sept. 2008 %Change Northeast 38,594 37,298 -3.4 South-Atlantic 51, 091 48,178 -5.7 North-Central 55,605 53,391 -4.0 South-Gulf 47,421 44,956 -5.2 West 50,843 47,421 -3.6 Total 243,555 232,847 -4.4

  18. Surging transit ridership, despite cheaper gas

  19. VMT still high, after years of growth exceeding that of population 2004 1980 Growth of VMT, vehicle registrations, and population in the United States relative to 1980 values

  20. U.S. share of car emissions of GHG

  21. Why do we drive so much? Do we have another choice?

  22. Three-fourths of Americans believe public transportation and smarter development will do more to cure traffic than building new roads. “Which of the following proposals is the best long-term solution to reducing traffic in your area?” Improve public transportation 49% 26% Develop communities where people do not have to drive as much 21% Build new roads

  23. Decline in Households with Kids Census for 1960 and 2000, 2025 adapted from Martha Farnsworth Riche, How Changes in the Nation’s Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD, 2003.

  24. The Senior Tsunami 2 , 0 0 0 1 , 5 0 0 1 , 0 0 0 Thousands People Turning 65 in Year 5 0 0 0 2001 2011 2021 2023 2014 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 2024 2025 Y e a r

  25. National Real Estate Analysis,Robert Charles Lesser Co.

  26. Convenient locations hold value as more driving-dependent areas suffer Washington Post: “The current slump is worse in counties far from the Beltway, such as Prince William, where prices fell 13 percent year over year, and slight in others, such as Arlington, which saw a 2 percent decrease.

  27. Metro DC Foreclosure Rates by County Source: RealtyTrac, Center for Regional Analysis

  28. Bridges to Nowhere? Or Bridges that Stand?

  29. Reauthorization of federal transportation law - SAFETEA-LU To learn more: T4America.org

  30. THANK YOU! Contact me: Dgoldberg@T4America.org More on our web sites: SmartGrowthAmerica.org T4America.org

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